🚀 go-pugleaf

In article 19071@dbsun.uucp, check@dbsun.uucp (checkett) writes:
>Subject: Shell Game (Dixie cups work too)
>
>Here's a slick little brain teaser I ran across.   Don't let the title
>bother you, there's no slight-of-hand involved, just straight logic.
>
>Description of game:
>The game is played by two people, a dealer, and a player.
>The game uses three upside-down cups and one quarter.
>The player attempts to guess which cup conceals the quarter.
>
>Action:
>The dealer secretly places the quarter under one of the three cups.
>The player is asked to point to the cup of his choice.
>After the player makes his choice, the dealer removes one of the empty cups.
>Two upside-down cups remain, the one the player picked, and a second cup.
>One of which hides the quarter.
>The player is given the option to switch to the second cup or stay with 
>his original selection.
>
>Here's the questions:
>Should the player switch to the other cup or stay pat?
>What are the odds?
>

This is an oldie, but a good one.  Statistically, you will reap a better chance
if you SWITCH your choice.  If you switch, you have a 66.7% chance of winning.
If not, you only have 33.3% chance.  

Now watch the violent flames ensue! ;0

cam, who has done an in-depth study of this problem.