🚀 go-pugleaf

In article <1992Dec22.185741.9823@berlioz.nsc.com> worden@bouncer.nsc.com (Dennis Worden) writes:
>
>The fact that you now have an open door with a goat behind it does not
>change the fact that you have 2 door and 1 prize.  The opening of the
>third door only tells you that the prize is not behind that door, it does
>not add any information as to where the prize really is.  Or put it another
>way, if you consider this new information on the same puzzle, why do you
>freeze the probability of the original guess at 33%?  To freeze the original
>probabilities at their "pre-new-information" levels means that your are not
>using that new information.  The new information would apply equally to all
>doors that are left, and adjusts the probability to 50%.  The original
>assumption of 33% chance per door was based upon 3 closed doors.  The new
>question is which of 2 closed doors has the prize.
>

Dennis, you are completely ignoring one enormous fact. Monty WILL NOT choose the
door to open that you picked in the 1st place. garenteed. He will Always choose
a door with a goat, but 2 times out of 3, he is FORCED to open 1 particular door.

If you accept that to begin with, your 1st choice will be wrong 2/3 of the time,
Monty is FORCED 2/3 of the time to choose the OTHER goat leaving the car behind
the OTHER of the 2 doors you didn't choose.

It's only 1/3 of the time, when you initially choose the car door, that Monty has
the frredom of choice on the remaining doors. It's only that 1/3 of the time that
switching loses.

It's only 50-50 if after Monty opens a door with a goat, you are blind-folded, spun
around 50 times, and have the rooms re-arranged, and you don't know which door you
originally picked.

>
>-- 
>Dennis Worden, not representing $  When the TEAM succeeds, you succeed,
>anybody, not even himself, in   $  but when the Team fails, you're FIRED.
>any way shape or form.          $  Don't EMAIL me at worden@berlioz.nsc.com


-- 
--Brian Gix                       Motorola
  gix@mdd.comm.mot.com            Mobile Data Division
  (206) 487-5894                  #include <disclaimer.h>