🚀 go-pugleaf

In article <BzFCM6.K8F@ccu.umanitoba.ca>, mayor@ee.umanitoba.ca (Cam "You didn't see me!" Mayor) writes:
>In article 19071@dbsun.uucp, check@dbsun.uucp (checkett) writes:
>>Subject: Shell Game (Dixie cups work too)
>>
[cut]
>>Action:
>>The dealer secretly places the quarter under one of the three cups.
>>The player is asked to point to the cup of his choice.
>>After the player makes his choice, the dealer removes one of the empty cups.
>>Two upside-down cups remain, the one the player picked, and a second cup.
>>One of which hides the quarter.
>>The player is given the option to switch to the second cup or stay with 
>>his original selection.
>>
[cut]
>>
>
>This is an oldie, but a good one.  Statistically, you will reap a better chance
>if you SWITCH your choice.  If you switch, you have a 66.7% chance of winning.
>If not, you only have 33.3% chance.  
>
>
>cam, who has done an in-depth study of this problem.

Ok, now I'll add a complication for the fun of it.
Given that the above solution is true (& I understand it has been
checked by computer simulation) and both the dealer and the player
know it to be true, what if the dealer chooses to refuse to let 
the player switch cups some of the time, just to confuse him.
How often should the dealer refuse to let the player switch such that
when the player may switch, his odds are 50/50?