🚀 go-pugleaf

In article <1992Dec24.153315.9357@panix.com>, fnord@panix.com (Cliff Heller) writes:
|> In <BzqJx8.3Fv@unx.sas.com> sasjec@asimov.unx.sas.com (Jerry M. Cox) writes:
|>
|> >Odds are that I could stand a review course in probability. But hear me
|> >out anyway :-) 

Thanks for the reveiw course (and hearing me out :-).

|> 
|> [Some Excellent Explicating Deleted]
|>

|> But, Monty
|> >changes the odds when he shows you one of the goats behind one of the
|> >two doors. He removes that door from consideration completely.
|>
|> No one, not even Monty can change the probability of something that you
|> already selected from three choices.  That remains fixed at 1/3.  It cannot
|> change.

And this was my main mistake. Thanks to your explanation, and Mike 
Urban's post of the million door variation on the problem, I see where I 
made my mistake. The probability from the door that Monty opens is all 
shifted to the door he didn't open, it is not spread between the door 
you pick initially and the one he didn't open.

|> --
|>     / \      Reverend fnord                 | "King Kong died for your sins!"
|>    /   \     fnord@panix.com                |
|>   / <0> \                                   | "Don't just eat a hamburger,
|>  /_______\   Church of Obfuscatology, Inc.  |  eat the HELL out of it!"

Gee, I just complimented a person who claims to be a cleric devoted to 
the religious study and promotion of confusing communications on the 
clarity of his explanation. I must be losing it.

--
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|Jerry M. Cox       |"Too often when men stumble over the truth, they  |
|sasjec@unx.sas.com | tend to pick themselves up and hurry off as if   |
|jmcox@eos.ncsu.edu | nothing happened."    --Winston Churchill--      |
|cox-j@osl.ncsu.edu |                                                  |
|----------------------------------------------------------------------|
| My opinions belong only to me! (But I'll give them to you, just ask) |
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