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Article #1122Re: Monty Hall / Shell Game / Dixie Cups
From: Cliff Heller
Date: Sat, 19 Dec 1992 18:34
Date: Sat, 19 Dec 1992 18:34
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1865 bytes
In <1992Dec18.202554.29968@cs.odu.edu> carr@fog.cs.odu.edu (Eric Carr) writes:
>...But suppose there were, for every time the door was opened, TWO players
>each standing in front of one of the doors. (The third player having already
>been disappointed by being told he/she was the proud owner of a goat.)
>Wouldn't BOTH of these players supposedly statistically benefit from switching,
>if the 2/3 answer were correct?
> The logic seemed OK to me until I thought of this aspect... Now I'm
>truly confused! 8-) I'd appreciate it if someone could explain this facet of
>the problem. I don't really care if I'm right or wrong -- I'd just like to know.
This is the most interesting objection I have heard.
The answer is not too complicated: If they players originally made their
guess RANDOMLY, then yes they benefit from switching.
But if player A gets door 1, and Player B must select from door 2 or 3,
then the probability space is changed.
It is not the same problem unless all three players selected their doors
INDEPENDENTLY, and have the option of choosing the same door.
--
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Newsgroups: alt.folklore.science Path: arc1-ca.pugleaf.net!sparky!uunet!elroy.jpl.nasa.gov!sdd.hp.com!caen!malgudi.oar.net!news.ans.net!cmcl2!panix!fnord From: fnord@panix.com (Cliff Heller) Subject: Re: Monty Hall / Shell Game / Dixie Cups Message-ID: <1992Dec19.183420.9785@panix.com> Date: Sat, 19 Dec 1992 18:34:20 GMT References: <9212151514.AA02487@isfrance.encore.fr> <1992Dec18.202554.29968@cs.odu.edu> Organization: Right Bleedin' Church of Libertine Obfuscatology Lines: 28