🚀 go-pugleaf

RetroBBS NetNews Server

Inspired by RockSolid Light RIP Retro Guy

Article View: alt.folklore.science
Article #1122

Re: Monty Hall / Shell Game / Dixie Cups

#1122
From: Cliff Heller
Date: Sat, 19 Dec 1992 18:34
28 lines
1865 bytes
In <1992Dec18.202554.29968@cs.odu.edu> carr@fog.cs.odu.edu (Eric Carr) writes:

>...But suppose there were, for every time the door was opened, TWO players
>each standing in front of one of the doors. (The third player having already
>been disappointed by being told he/she was the proud owner of a goat.)
>Wouldn't BOTH of these players supposedly statistically benefit from switching,
>if the 2/3 answer were correct?

>	The logic seemed OK to me until I thought of this aspect... Now I'm
>truly confused! 8-) I'd appreciate it if someone could explain this facet of
>the problem. I don't really care if I'm right or wrong -- I'd just like to know.

This is the most interesting objection I have heard.  

The answer is not too complicated:  If they players originally made their
guess RANDOMLY, then yes they benefit from switching.

But if player A gets door 1, and Player B must select from door 2 or 3,
then the probability space is changed.

It is not the same problem unless all three players selected their doors
INDEPENDENTLY, and have the option of choosing the same door.

-- 
    / \      Reverend fnord                 | "King Kong died for your sins!"
   /   \     fnord@panix.com                | 
  / <0> \                                   | "Don't just eat a hamburger, 
 /_______\   Church of Obfuscatology, Inc.  |  eat the HELL out of it!"
Technical Details
Message-ID: <1992Dec19.183420.9785@panix.com>
Path: arc1-ca.pugleaf.net!sparky!uunet!elroy.jpl.nasa.gov!sdd.hp.com!caen!malgudi.oar.net!news.ans.net!cmcl2!panix!fnord
References: <9212151514.AA02487@isfrance.encore.fr> <1992Dec18.202554.29968@cs.odu.edu>

Show Full Headers
Complete Article Headers
Newsgroups: alt.folklore.science
Path: arc1-ca.pugleaf.net!sparky!uunet!elroy.jpl.nasa.gov!sdd.hp.com!caen!malgudi.oar.net!news.ans.net!cmcl2!panix!fnord
From: fnord@panix.com (Cliff Heller)
Subject: Re: Monty Hall / Shell Game / Dixie Cups
Message-ID: <1992Dec19.183420.9785@panix.com>
Date: Sat, 19 Dec 1992 18:34:20 GMT
References: <9212151514.AA02487@isfrance.encore.fr> <1992Dec18.202554.29968@cs.odu.edu>
Organization: Right Bleedin' Church of Libertine Obfuscatology
Lines: 28