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Article #1125Re: Monty Hall/Shell Game..
From: Donald Byrne
Date: Sun, 20 Dec 1992 02:43
Date: Sun, 20 Dec 1992 02:43
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1565 bytes
I have a question about this idea of the Monty Hall game thing that
has been going around in this post?
If I understand the rules and all, it says that the person must pick
one of three doors. Only one of the three has the prize. The other two
doors will not be a winning door. So when this person picks one of the
doors, Monty Hall will by the rules eliminate one of the other two doors.
then Monty Hall will ask the person to change his pick of the door he
picked to the other door, or stay with the door he origionally picked.
He was asked to change only after the elimation of one of the other
doors. Now we know that there are two non-win doors in the game, and the
object of Monty Hall is to elimanite one by the rules. If our player has
any smarts he knows that he will either have a winner or a looser, and
that Monty Hall will asure him of that. The reason is that of the three
doors he will only really deal with two. Monty Hall will elimaniate the
other. So unless I'm not seeing the game properly it seems to me the
final results should be 50%.
Now explain why all of you say 66% of a chanch if he changes to the
other one of the remaining two??
I remain confused??
D.E. Byrne
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Path: arc1-ca.pugleaf.net!sparky!uunet!olivea!isc-br!tau-ceti!visual!perseus!don From: don@perseus.spk.wa.us (Donald Byrne) Newsgroups: alt.folklore.science Subject: Re: Monty Hall/Shell Game.. Message-ID: <X382VB1w164w@perseus.spk.wa.us> Date: 20 Dec 92 02:43:20 GMT Lines: 24