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Article #1127Re: Monty Hall/Shell Game..
From: Dave Seaman
Date: Sun, 20 Dec 1992 18:33
Date: Sun, 20 Dec 1992 18:33
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1328 bytes
In article <X382VB1w164w@perseus.spk.wa.us> don@perseus.spk.wa.us (Donald Byrne) writes: [Argues that there are only two possibilities, a goat or a car.] >So unless I'm not seeing the game properly it seems to me the >final results should be 50%. What are the odds that the sun will rise tomorrow? There are only two possibilities. Either the sun will rise tomorrow, or it won't. Therefore, the probability that the sun will rise tomorrow must be 50%, right? > Now explain why all of you say 66% of a chanch if he changes to the >other one of the remaining two?? There is a 1/3 chance of choosing the car from the original three doors. Whenever this happens, you lose by switching. There is a 2/3 chance of choosing a goat from the original three doors. Whenever this happens, you win by switching. -- Dave Seaman ags@seaman.cc.purdue.edu
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Path: arc1-ca.pugleaf.net!sparky!uunet!noc.near.net!hri.com!spool.mu.edu!news.nd.edu!mentor.cc.purdue.edu!seaman.cc.purdue.edu!ags From: ags@seaman.cc.purdue.edu (Dave Seaman) Newsgroups: alt.folklore.science Subject: Re: Monty Hall/Shell Game.. Message-ID: <BzKM7x.4Jv@mentor.cc.purdue.edu> Date: 20 Dec 92 18:33:32 GMT References: <X382VB1w164w@perseus.spk.wa.us> Sender: news@mentor.cc.purdue.edu (USENET News) Organization: Purdue University Lines: 23