🚀 go-pugleaf

In article <1992Dec21.214559.22343@berlioz.nsc.com> worden@bouncer.nsc.com (Dennis Worden) writes:
>
>
>Now reword the situation a little:
>After Monty opens the door with the goat behind it, he then asks you to
>choose between the remaining two doors, one with the prize, and the other
>with the goat.  You have a 50% chance of picking the correct one (remember,
>the third door does not exist in the wording).  You have a 50% chance
>of picking the correct door here.  You have the same information as before,
>the only change is that instead of asking you to "switch", you are asked
>to "pick from start".  Either way, you have two doors in front of you,
>and one prize.  

Doesn't follow.  It's still "new" information, and you still have a 67%
chance of winning if you pick the door that you didn't pick at first.



>Monty hasn't given you new information, he has given you a new
>question.  At the point where he asks you if you want to switch, the fact
>that you had a 33% chance previously doesn't affect you new decision; two
>doors, one prize.

The fact that the door which used to be closed is now known to be a loser
is new information.  Specifically, if I guessed a goat (probability 2/3),
then he's now shown me where the winner is.

	- kitten