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Sethusamudram Shipping Canal Project : Ignorance is Bliss!
By R.Ramesh

Wake up Sri Lanka! Wake up Now!!

Government of India (GoI) has cleared Sethusamudram Ship Canal Project
(SSCP) at a worst possible time. The whole of Palk Bay is reeling
today, under an excessive stress caused by the December 26th tsunami.
Most of its biotic and physical resources remain challenged partially
or fully by the tsunami. However, the Ministry of Shipping has decided
to start the dredging work for the canal in three weeks time from now.

The work would begin in Palk Strait - a place, least studied by the
dredgers or by the organization that had prepared the SSCP technical
feasibility report. The estimated quantity to be dredged would be 12 to
13 million cubic meters initially. This is 22 to 26% of the dredging
work estimated for the Palk Strait area or 13.6 to 16 % of the dredging
work estimated for the whole project. That means that the first one
seventh of the work would be initiated within the next 20 days.

The Drama

The Department of Ocean Development's (DOD) report on Tsunami damage,
published in late March, had documented that the sedimentation rate at
the coral reefs around Pamban Island had increased two folds during the
tsunami. A team of scientists from Central Industrial Research
Institute studying placer deposits in the area had estimated something
like 40 million tonnes of Titanium alone to have been deposited in the
whole 500-kilo meters stretch of the coastline that was hit by the
tsunami.

Zoological Survey of India's report talks about the consequences of
excessive dumping of silt by the tsunami in Palk Bay on the Bay
ecosystem. Independent surveys conducted at Kodiakkarai in January had
revealed that the sea is now half its depth than it was before tsunami.
Government of India (GoI) had not thought it important to consider the
project's viability in the light of the above conclusions. Also, it
did not occur to GoI that these study conclusions indicated that the
total amount of material that has to be dredged now would actually be
many times higher than the original estimate put forward by the project
proponents.

Palk Bay and its neighboring areas had witnessed 23 cyclones in the
period between 1891-1995 A.D. That means cyclones have crossed this
area once in 4 to 5 years. Studies by Dr.Sanil Kumar of National
Institute of Oceanography, Goa have indicated that during these
cyclones, sediments get dumped in Palk Bay. In addition to this, the
area has witnessed 3 tsunamis (1881, 1883, 1941) prior to the current
one. All these facts indicate that the amount of dredging that would be
necessary would actually be many times higher than the amount estimated
by National Environmental Engineering Research Institute (NEERI),
Nagpur.

The real irony came to the forefront in a news item published by The
New Indian Express in its 28 March 2005 edition. It said: "In an
official note issued early this month, the PMO (Prime Minister's
Office) is said to have questioned risks from aspects such as
sedimentation due to cyclonic disturbances and threats due to future
natural calamities like the tsunami. These issues had not been covered
in the environmental impact assessment by Nagpur-based agency NEERI.
Its Director S Devotta told this website's newspaper that his agency
had not received the PMO note. However, he agreed that NEERI had not
covered the sedimentation issue because ''we had asked the
Tuticorin Port Trust to address this aspect with the help of another
agency.'' Devotta also stressed that there was no thought on the
possibility of tsunamis in this region when the assessment report had
been submitted in August 2004. ''That is why NEERI did not address
a tsunami scenario in its study. After the tsunami, any ocean
development project - not just the Sethusamudram project - would have
to look into this new aspect,'' he conceded."

So, here is a project, where the agency that calculated the amount of
sediment to be dredged had openly accepted that it had not studied the
issue of sedimentation. It had admitted that it had not considered the
issue of tsunami. What its director failed to tell the newspaper was
that his agency had also not considered the issue of cyclones that
frequent the area once in 4-5 years.

However, the Indian Prime Minister's Office had raised all these
questions in its official press note dated March 8, 2005. With respect
to this, The New Indian Express report dated 20 May, 2005 reported:
"However, post-tsunami, the plan landed in fresh difficulties, with
the Prime Minister's office reportedly questioning the environmental
impact assessment (EIA) study by National Environmental Engineering
Research Institute (NEERI). The PMO wanted fresh evaluation, as
information about the effects of tsunamis and cyclones on the project
had not been factored in and noted there were huge gaps in the current
knowledge about sedimentation. Subsequently, a team of experts studied
the project and made it clear that Gulf of Mannar would not face any
threat from the tsunami in the future and the apprehensions expressed
by the PMO were cleared."

That makes the drama more interesting! The above-mentioned study by
experts that had the power to clear PMO's earlier doubts on the
project's feasibility was completed in a record time of 13 days
(April 01 to 13th). What NEERI was unable to achieve in its two years
of study (13.05.2002 to 09.06.2004), this anonymous group of experts
had accomplished in a matter of just 2 weeks!!!

The meaning of the Drama

Tsunami simulation models by Prof.Steven N.Ward of Institute of
Geophysics and Planetary Physics, University of California, Santa Cruz,
USA and Prof. Aditya Riyadi of Pusat Penelitian Kelautan Institut
Teknologi, Bandung, Indonesia have given a very clear picture about the
pattern of tsunami wave interaction with Palk Bay. These models have
been confirmed correct by the data on tsunami waves received from JASON
1 satellite and also by the various post tsunami field surveys. These
simulation models indicated that the northeastern, central, eastern
portions of Palk Bay had received waves of higher energy and thus these
areas had remained more turbulent during tsunami. This means, the
extent of sedimentation and thus the extent of damage to the marine
ecosystem in this part of the Bay should have been much higher than the
other areas of the Bay. Incidentally, all these areas fall within Sri
Lankan boundary.

The above said simulation models have also indicated that the waves
traveling into Palk Bay both from north and south have a tendency to
travel toward the eastern and central half of the Bay during tsunami.
Usha Natesan of Anna University, Chennai has made a similar observation
in 2002 from her study on the role of satellites in monitoring sediment
dynamics. As stated earlier, all these areas fall with in Sri Lanka's
boundary.

NEERI's bogus estimate on the amount of dredged material is not the
only issue that beckons us. The Technical Feasibility Report (TFR) it
had prepared along with the Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA)
raises a still more serious issue. It states: "The costs may face
upward revision as it has been observed that in more than 50% of the
dredging contract there has been very large cost overruns mainly due to
poor soil investigation. Investigations carried out in this study are
based on sub-bottom profile except for three borings in Adam's Bridge
and there is apprehension that hard strata will be encountered in Palk
Bay/Palk Strait area. If bottom strata turn out to be rock, the
dredging costs will change drastically, as blasting might be
required."(Executive Summary, SSCP TFR, NEERI, page XVIII).

Even for its bogus estimate of the amount of dredged material, NEERI
had not identified specific dumpsites. With respect to this, consider
the following assessment: "The total quantity of spoils that would
come from capital dredging is supposed to be 81.5 to 88.5 X 106 m3. The
quantum of dredged spoil that would come from maintenance dredging is
supposed to be 0.1 X 106 m3 / year. Specific dumpsite has been
identified only for 8.5 to 9.5 % of the total dredged spoil. Idea about
the nature of the dredged spoil is available presently, only for about
38.5 to 40.5 % of the total dredged spoil. No idea exists at the
present time on the nature of the dredged spoil that would be generated
for 59.5 to 61.5 % of the total dredged material. We do not know the
exact dumpsites for about 90.5 to 91.5 % of the dredged material."

So where would they dump the material they would be dredging 20 days
from now? With no consistent answer to this question, the project is
getting ready for its launch.

Where would the dredged materials travel during normal times and during
the times of cyclones and tsunami? As indicated by the studies of
Dr.Usha Natesan, Steven N.Ward and Aditya Riyadi, they would be getting
dumped in the Sri Lankan portion of Palk Bay. Blasting, if resorted to
in Palk Strait, would sound the final death knell for the Palk Bay
ecosystem.

The Puzzle of Tad S.Murty

Dr.Murty is an expatriate Indian who had served as the chief editor of
the reputed International Tsunami Journal "Science of Tsunami
Hazards" for over two decades. He is considered as one of the leading
scientists on tsunami in general and on the tsunamis of the Indian
Ocean in particular. The PMO had invited him late this January for
knowing his views on the establishment of the tsunami warning system
for India. As he finished his briefing on the tsunami warning system
for India he had something else also to share with the PMO: that was on
the proposed alignment of the SSCP with respect to tsunamis that the
Indian east coast might be subjected to in the future. "I like this
(Sethusamudram) project', he said, 'but there is a flaw. The
entrance to the channel should be re-oriented towards the eastern side.
Otherwise, there is a chance that it may create a deepwater route for
another devastating tsunami. This may cause huge destruction in
Kerala."

The average speed of the tsunami wave in the deep sea had been
calculated to be around 800 to 850 km per hour. However, the speed with
which it had moved into Palk Strait was astonishingly slow. It worked
out to be just 30 km per hour. For Nagapattinam continental shelf, it
was around 200 km per hour.

The simulation models of Steven and Aditya point to us that the areas
through which the most turbulent waves have entered Palk Bay both from
North and South are the areas where the Sethusamudram Shipping Canal is
to be located.

It is this point that had worried Dr.T.S.Murty, when he said, "the
entrance to the channel should be re-oriented towards (i.e., in) the
eastern side. Otherwise, there is a chance that it may create a
deepwater route for another devastating tsunami. This may cause huge
destruction in Kerala." By Kerala, he had actually meant the entire
shoreline extending from Dhanushkodi to Ernakulam and Delft Islands to
Colombo. The steeply placed Palk Bay, it may be inferred from his
statement, has actually shielded the above said shoreline from the
harsh impact of the tsunami waves approaching it from Bay of Bengal
located in the northeast.

The deep-water route of the SSCP has two acute bends in its course.
These bends would obstruct the waves gushing through the canal, and
thus there would be excessive sedimentation in the upper and lower
courses of the canal. The impact of the high-energy waves on the bends
would destroy these bends, thus paving way for the waves to enter the
central portion of Palk Bay. Sediments carried by these waves would
make the central portion of the Bay much shallower. Presently (that is
before tsunami; post tsunami, study of its depth has not been
calculated, yet) this 78 km stretch is said to have an adequate depth
of 12 meters. But, with a canal that has the potential to transport
high-energy waves from north and south during cyclones and tsunamis in
place, this area would also become a candidate for dredging. This would
also increase the amount of turbidity in Palk Bay considerably. With
all this, the amount of material that has to be dredged would increase
dramatically.

Thus continued dredging in the total stretch of 152.2 km would become
the order of the day. Increased, nonstop, unplanned dredging would
destroy a sea having one of the highest levels of primary production in
the world.

Conclusion:

SSCP would probably be the only offshore project in the world in which
the project planners have committed publicly that they have not
considered the high risk factors and yet would go forward with the
execution of the project. Even the worst tsunami that mankind had ever
witnessed was unable to break the pertinent vow of the project
proponents to remain ignorant of every environmental parameter capable
of destroying the project's viability.

Instead of concentrating on an analysis of the factors that possess the
potential to make the project non feasible, the project proponents were
busy constructing filmy discourses on the potential utility of the
project. The most important of all such discourses was the discourse on
the ability of the canal to contain the threat of LTTE navy. The target
of this born to win discourse was Ms.Sonia Gandhi. It achieved its
results instantaneously. The imaginative force of this discourse blew
the earlier agitating GoI down under! Thus Sethusamudram Shipping Canal
Project was born!!

It's time Sri Lanka wakes up to this canal, Now!!!