🚀 go-pugleaf

In article 4FC@breeze.rsre.mod.uk, black@breeze.rsre.mod.uk (John Black) writes:
>
>
>In "New Scientist", a reputable science weekly in the UK, the collision date is
>down as 14th August 2126. The period is about 130 years according to 
the article. It says the chances of a collision are 1 in 400.

Having just recovered from the perpetual barrage of meaningless statistics 
during the World Series (though the outcome made it all worthwhile!), I am 
forced to take issue with the last statement.  What the reports in fact said 
was that _IF_ the comet intersected the earth's orbit then there would still 
only be a 1 in 400 chance of it actually hitting the earth.  I would imagine 
that IF decreases the probability by a at least an order of magnitude.  Please, 
lets not make the media's job of distorting the facts any easier!  The reports 
are quoted below from a previous post.

"Although there is no doubt about the Earth shattering consequences of
  a cosmic splat, the odds are against it.  A comet at 70kps would take
  only three minutes to cross the Earth's orbit.  If it did so on August
  14, 2126, odds against impact would still be 400 to one."
     -- The Guardian, 26th October 1992

"The comet only takes about 3.5 minutes to cross the path of the Earth,
  so even if it does cross the Earth's orbit on 14 August 2126 the odds
  against an impact are still about 400 to 1."
		-- The New Scientist, 24th October 1			    Cheers, M.
---
This doesn't reflect their views. Hell, this |Malcolm Argyle
doesn't even reflect my views!               |argyle@cg.emr.ca
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