🚀 go-pugleaf

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Given the difficulty in coordinating their candidate lists (plus their
very understandable reluctance to put their perks at risk), why would the
LDP-JSP-Sakigake coalition want to call an election anytime soon? And
remember that they have a majority in the lower house. So why would there
be an election?

There seem to be two answers here: (i) that the people want it and (ii)
that the LDP and JSP coalition will not hold (such that they will lose
their majority).

The people want it? So what? Did the people want Hata as PM? Did the
people want Kaifu? Come to think of it, did the people who voted for the
JSP in the last election want it to say the SDF is Constitutional? No.
The system is set up so that the people elect representatives and then
hope for the best. Unless there is marching in the streets, I do not see
what the people supposedly want as having much impact. (And I cannot
picture people marching in the streets to install an Ozawa govt.)

The LDP-JSP coalition will not hold? Why not? We have seen the JSP adopt
the LDP platform. We have seen the JSP's Kubo on TV (channel 10) last
night get asked about the discrepancy between what the JSP was saying
last year and what it is saying now and calmly reply (in my rough
translation) "As an opposition party, we had to oppose and oppose very
stridently. But as a govt party, we have to work from the reality, and
that means accepting things as they are as a starting point." In addition,
we have the JSP meeting yesterday where most of the people in attendance
basically accepted this radically new JSP policy line.

Sure there is grumbling from people who thought the JSP meant what it was
saying about the SDF being unconstitutional, about opposing nuclear power
plants, about not liking the prewar flag and anthem, and about a lot of
other things, but I do not see these grumblers (JSP-hard-liners?) as the
dominant force in the party. At best, they are maybe 23-30%, and even if
they split off to form a new party, they would probably grudgingly
support the current coalition from outside the cabinet (kaku-gai kyouryoku).

Somebody mentioned that the farmers are angry at losing their protection.
But who was in power when that happened? And then who got the rice farmers
a special subsidy recently. So who are the farmers going to vote for?

That said, I suspect that when the election finally does come, the JSP will
be a major loser because it will not have any independent identity or any
credibility.

-- Fred Uleman