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Kosovo refugee exodus into Macedonia slackens
11:08 a.m. Apr 18, 1999 Eastern
BLACE, Macedonia, April 18 (Reuters) - The huge influx of Kosovo
refugees into Macedonia appeared to subside on Sunday after almost a
week of arrivals averaging several thousand a day, witnesses said.

Macedonia has taken in about 150,000 refugees from Kosovo and more than
10,000 arrived on Friday, but only a few families had walked through the
major border crossing of Blace on Sunday by early afternoon.

Around 500 held up in no man's land overnight at Jazince 40 km (25
miles) to the west were slowly bused out to reception centres.

An international monitor at Blace said refugees who had been deported by
train from Urosevac to the frontier were inexplicably put back on the
train and sent back.

Around 4,000 Kosovo Albanian refugees reached Macedonia early on
Saturday having trekked for more than 20 hours through high mountains,
U.N. officials said on Sunday. International food aid was rushed to a
remote village that provided them temporary shelter.

More than 15,000 refugees have been evacuated from Macedonia to third
countries and the airlift rate is increasing because the poor Balkan
country of just 2.3 million people cannot accept more without being
destabilised, the government says.

Ron Redmond, spokesman for the U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees, said
the 4,000 refugees from the Gnjilane area in southeast Kosovo arrived in
the highland border village of Malina Mala.

``They came from four villages near Gnjilane that were set ablaze, and
they walked for more than 20 hours,'' Redmond told Reuters.

UNHCR, which monitors only a few major road crossings from the Serbian
province full-time, said it was alerted to the Malina Mala refugees when
village officials telephoned to appeal for emergency food and other
supplies, which were rapidly sent.

Redmond said villagers told him up to 50 refugees had been crammed into
houses. Macedonian police told him the refugees would be registered for
transfer to camps near the capital Skopje, a few dozen km (miles) to the
south.

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POLL-U.S., EU approval ratings dive among Greeks
11:05 a.m. Apr 18, 1999 Eastern
ATHENS, April 18 (Reuters) - The standing of NATO, the United States and
European Union has plunged over the Kosovo crisis in the eyes of Greeks,
an opinion poll published in Athens daily Eleftheros Typos showed on
Sunday.

Some 92.4 percent disapproved of the U.S. stance and 95.7 percent
disapproved of NATO's handling of the Kosovo crisis. U.S. President Bill
Clinton was able to garner an approval rating of just 0.9 percent among
the 800 people questioned by pollsters Alko.

Disapproval for the European Union's position over Kosovo was also
widespread, with 86.8 percent of Greeks giving it a negative rating.

An overwhelming 98.6 percent of those questioned believed that the
bombing had to stop immediately and a political settlement sought
through diplomatic avenues.

NATO member Greece has walked a fine line between its obligations to the
alliance and the West and near unanimous opposition among ordinary
Greeks to the bombing campaign
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Clinton Favors Kosovo Autonomy Not Independence
12:40 a.m. Apr 18, 1999 Eastern
LONDON (Reuters) - President Clinton has laid the blame for the current
Kosovo crisis firmly on Yugoslav leader Slobodan Milosevic, calling him
a ``belligerent tyrant'' and ``Europe's worst demagogue'' and saying any
solution would require a major change in Belgrade.

In some of the strongest language directed against the veteran Yugoslav
leader, Clinton wrote in Britain's Sunday Times that any solution to the
crisis sweeping Kosovo and threatening to engulf neighboring states
required a profound transformation in Serbia.

``Realistically, the realization of this vision will require a
democratic transition in Serbia itself, for the region cannot be secure
with a belligerent tyrant in its midst,'' he said.

``We are in Kosovo because Europe's worst demagogue has once again moved
from angry words to unspeakable violence.''

Clinton said the NATO bombing campaign against Milosevic's forces would
continue until he withdrew his troops from Kosovo.

The U.S. leader reiterated the view of the major powers which have been
trying to negotiate a peaceful settlement between Serbia and rebellious
leaders of Kosovo's 90 percent ethnic Albanian majority was autonomy,
but not independence, as demanded by Kosovo Liberation Army guerrillas.

``Kosovo lacks the resources and infrastructure to thrive on its own.
Instead, its independence could actually spur more instability,'' he
wrote.

Autonomy for Kosovo was the central plank of a big power-sponsored peace
plan signed last month by ethnic Albanian leaders from the Serbian
province, but rejected by Belgrade.

Britain's Prime Minister Tony Blair recently hinted that independence
for the province could be an option now after reports of widespread
atrocities by Serbian troops.

``It is more and more difficult to foresee autonomy within the Federal
Republic (of Yugoslavia),'' he told the BBC.

Clinton also appeared to rule out the possibility, raised in some
quarters, of partitioning Kosovo, leaving the northern half containing
historic Orthodox Serb monasteries and rich mineral deposits under
Serbian rule and hiving off the south to rule itself or join up with
Albania.

``I do not believe the solution to hatred in the Balkans is even greater
Balkanization. Once we start redrawing maps, the disputes and
displacement of people would be hard to stop.''

Clinton restated the West's warning to Milosevic that the fate of
refugees displaced in Kosovo was his responsibility.

``They are hungry, living outside, afraid to return to their villages.
Mr. Milosevic apparently wants to use them as hostages and human
shields...Mr. Milosevic is responsible for the welfare of those
people -- and we will hold him responsible.''

Clinton laid out again the conditions that Milosevic needs to meet to
end the NATO bombing campaign.

``Mr. Milosevic can end the crisis today -- by withdrawing his forces
from Kosovo, permitting an international security force and allowing the
unconditional return of all the displaced with the security and
self-government to which they are entitled.''

Clinton also stressed the need to involve Russia in efforts to resolve
the Kosovo conflict.

``We must engage Russia in this process whenever possible, for even if
we cannot agree now on the crisis in Kosovo, we have common goals and
aspirations,'' he said.

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Rain turns Macedonia refugee camps into mud fields
01:45 p.m Apr 17, 1999 Eastern
By Dina Kyriakidou

STANKOVIC, Macedonia, April 17 (Reuters) - Relentless rain drenched
fleeing Kosovo refugees and turned their camps in Macedonia into vast
fields of mud on Saturday, prompting health concerns among relief
groups.

Hundreds of refugees trudged in the rain along rail tracks to reach the
Yugoslav-Macedonian border at Blace, trod through a muddy field and,
soaking wet, were loaded on to buses heading for the camps.

Dropped off at the Stankovic refugee processing centre, they made their
way through deep sludge to a reception tent, which was heavy with rain
and sagging low above their heads.

The CARE aid group, which runs the smaller of two compounds making up
the vast Stankovic camp north of Skopje, said it was inspecting about
1,000 tents to evaluate the damage from rain which had continued from
Friday night.

Getting the camp dry was the main concern of aid workers, who said any
illness would spread rapidly among the 13,000 refugees living in close
quarters.

``If we get people who are wet and cold, we get upper respiratory
problems,'' CARE's Bob Allen told Reuters.

Many refugees spent a sleepless night on their feet as water seeped into
their tents, soaking blankets and clothes.

``It was terrible because it was raining all night and all morning. The
water came under the tent and wet everything. We spent the night
standing up,'' said Burim Yashari, 19.

As the sun peeked through the clouds, many spread out their belongings
to dry and a long queue formed outside the medical van of the Greek
branch of the Doctors of the World aid group.

``They gave us dry blankets this morning but what's the use? They got
wet again,'' said Teuta Aliti, 32, cradling her 15-month-old child. ``I
heated some water to wash my baby because he had a rash, but all I
managed to do was to give him a cold.''

Experienced relief workers said the refugee crisis in Macedonia was much
more demanding than similar situations in Africa or Asia, saying that
many people there were used to making do with less.

``The needs of the people here are much greater,'' said Allen, who has
worked in countries such as Rwanda, Somalia and Indonesia.

Europeans were not used to living outdoors and were much more
susceptible to diseases, he said. Adding that Europeans had a lower
tolerance to the hardships of a refugee camp, he walked off to deal with
a minor crisis -- two refugees who refused to share a tent made to
shelter about 10 people.

Over 125,000 refugees have fled the violence-torn Kosovo to Macedonia,
many taking refuge with their ethnic kin in this poor Balkan country and
tens of thousands at refugee camps hastily erected to shelter them.

The Krasnici family fled their native village of Liljan, south of the
Kosovo regional capital Pristina, on Saturday after Serb forces told
them to take a train from nearby Urosevac to Macedonia. They were
disgorged two km (miles) from the border, where they were told that only
those who held travel documents would be allowed out.

Dashije Krasnici sobbed quietly for her daughter, son, daughter-in-law
and four grandchildren who were left behind.

Her husband Hasan, 52, calmed her down, took an apple offered by aid
workers and told of his home -- newly built before it was burnt down by
Serb paramilitary forces.

Apple core in hand, he looked inquisitively around him at the
litter-covered tent floor and asked: ``Where's the garbage?''
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Macedonia signals moratorium on new refugee camps
11:18 a.m. Apr 17, 1999 Eastern
By Dina Kyriakidou

BLACE, Macedonia, April 17 (Reuters) - More Kosovo Albanian refugees
massed at Macedonia's border on Saturday and the government in Skopje,
signalling that the Balkan country could not stand a further influx, has
put a moratorium on new camps.

Around 130,000 Kosovo refugees have poured into Macedonia, an
impoverished former Yugoslav republic of just 2.3 million with its own
large, restive Albanian minority, since NATO launched punitive air
strikes against Yugoslavia on March 24 for rejecting a peace agreement
at talks in France.

``The government yesterday rejected a request from NATO and UNHCR (U.N.
refugee agency) for new camps for refugees from Kosovo. The
international community has not respected previous agreements under
which 92,620 refugees should have been in third countries,'' Macedonian
Defence Minister Nikola Kljusev said.

``We will not build new camps any more. It is possible to expand
existing camps, but new refugees definitely must go to third
countries,'' he said in remarks reported by Macedonian newspapers on
Saturday.

Around 12,000 refugees streamed into Macedonia from embattled Kosovo, a
southern province of Serbia, on Thursday and Friday, severely taxing
capacity at the existing half dozen reception camps, and heavy rain on
Saturday hampered efforts to erect more tents.

UNHCR spokeswoman Paula Ghedini told Reuters at the Macedonian border
point of Blace that there were indications from the accounts of arriving
refugees of ``huge movement'' inside Kosovo towards Albania and
Macedonia.

``We see possibly the need to evacuate more people in a faster period of
time,'' she said, alluding to Macedonia's rapidly fading tolerance of
the destabilising influx.

From several hundred metres (yards) distance, reporters watched about
500 refugees trudging along railway tracks, avoiding Serbian minefields,
to the Blace border post after having disembarked from a train coming
from the interior of Kosovo.

As they were processed by Macedonian border guards and began boarding
buses to be taken to camps, Ghedini said 2,000 to 2,500 had actually
arrived by train in the Yugoslav border town of Gjeneral Jankovic but
that only 500 with passports were immediately allowed to leave
Yugoslavia.

Ghedini, who questioned some of the 500 in a no-man's land which was off
limits to reporters, said they told her Serbian police had robbed them
of their money.

She told reporters that the refugees had boarded the train in the
southern Kosovo town of Urosevac, scene of mass deportations for the
past week. But some 1,000 ethnic Albanians who emerged from hiding to
catch the train after Serbian police spread the news that it was about
to leave were not allowed board.

More than half of Kosovo's original 90 percent majority Albanian
population of 1.8 million has fled or been expelled from their homes by
Serbian forces, almost 500,000 of them swamping Albania and Macedonia.

An ethnic Albanian family who entered Macedonia at Blace by car earlier
on Saturday said they had left the Kosovo provincial capital Pristina at
7 a.m. (0500 GMT). They said they had found temporary sanctuary in the
large city after their house in the northwestern town of Mitrovica was
burned by Serbian paramilitaries.

Asked how long their family had been in hiding, Metulahe Hadza, 50, told
Reuters: ``We stopped counting the days.''

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Exodus Swells, Straining Capacity of Refugee Camps
Thousands Reported Poised to Flee as Kosovo Purges Continue
By William Booth and James Rupert
Washington Post Staff Writers
Sunday, April 18, 1999; Page A24

The pace of refugees streaming out of Kosovo quickened yesterday as tens
of thousands of ethnic Albanians fled to Macedonia and Albania, with
reports that up to 50,000 more hiding in their homes and in the forests
are poised to leave the war-torn region.

Some 6,000 arrived in Macedonia. Yugoslav security forces turned away
another 2,000 before they reached the border. The numbers crossing into
Albania were larger. On top of 10,000 refugees who entered Friday,
another 15,000 had arrived by late afternoon.

Many came to refugee camps that, with heavy rains, had turned into mud.
Torrential downpours soaked and chilled people huddling under sodden
blankets or plastic sheeting on tractor wagons.

Yesterday's arrivals said many thousands more were on the way out behind
them as armed Serbs continued to work street by street and village by
village, forcing their way into homes and expelling ethnic Albanians at
gunpoint.

The new surge of refugees -- which followed a period of more than a week
in which it had appeared Yugoslav forces were attempting to limit or
reverse the exodus -- is stressing the abilities of the camps to care
for them. Four of the seven camps in Macedonia are filled beyond
capacity.

Since Yugoslav forces began their crackdown a month ago, international
relief workers estimate that more than 500,000 ethnic Albanians have
fled Kosovo and up to 700,000 more have been forcibly removed from their
houses but remain in the province.

At Macedonia's largest refugee center, in Stankovac, many who arrived on
Friday spent the night wandering around the camp, without a tent to
sleep in. There were no official figures, but refugees, doctors and
other aide workers said that as many as several hundred might have
remained exposed to the elements.

Relief workers in Kukes, Albania, where arriving refugees are being
gathered, voiced increased concern about the availability of food in
Kosovo, especially for unknown numbers of people who are hiding in the
rugged mountains. During its long months of fighting, "Kosovo has been
living largely on humanitarian aid for the past year," said Jacques
Franquin of the U.N. refugee agency. "Now all normal supplies have been
interrupted, and what is available is going to those with the guns."

Serbs are seizing or destroying the livestock and food of those they
expel, leaving less food for Albanians still in Kosovo, said Angela
Walker, an official with the United Nations' World Food Program.

The renewed exodus of refugees also has complicated NATO military
operations, particularly in Albania, where U.S. Army teams are setting
up a base camp for AH-64A Apache attack helicopters and long-range
artillery, due to begin operations as early as this week.

"I think it's causing a complication for everybody, obviously," Maj.
Gen. Charles Wald, a senior member of the Pentagon's Joint Staff, told
reporters yesterday.

Asked why Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic appeared to be pushing
or allowing another mass departure of ethnic Albanians, Wald said: "The
only thing that I can judge is that Milosevic feels pressured to get
this done sooner than he really would have otherwise. I think he feels
some desperation."

At NATO headquarters in Brussels, Jamie Shea, the alliance's chief
spokesman, also suggested that Kosovo Liberation Army rebels were
facilitating the renewed flow. He said the secessionist guerrillas had
opened up a "corridor" along the Albanian border "which has allowed a
certain number of refugees" to leave the province.

One woman, interviewed at Macedonia's Stankovac camp with her husband,
who was suffering from a brain tumor and failing kidneys, said they had
spent their first night after crossing the border "wandering like people
with nothing, no place to go, no place to lie down," in aimless circles
around the camp. Their clothes were drenched, and they were still
shivering inside a medical tent at midday.

"This is like a nightmare that is difficult to describe. And then it
started to rain. Now look, it is a world of mud," said Safet Begoli, 35,
a doctor who had fled from Kosovo and who had been two weeks in the
camp.

But the ones in the refugee camps said they were lucky. A train filled
with 2,500 ethnic Albanians attempting to cross at the Macedonian border
at Blace suddenly, and inexplicably, found that Yugoslav security forces
would only allow about 500 off the train -- those with passports. The
other 2,000 disappeared back into Kosovo, their fates unknown.

The largest group of new arrivals in Macedonia, some 4,000 ethnic
Albanians, came out of hiding and walked across the mountains at an
unofficial border crossing, settling in at Malina, a small village
populated by ethnic Albanians.

Cut off from support by humanitarian groups or NATO forces, the refugees
who came to Malina moved into villagers' homes and set up housekeeping
in empty buildings. The village of Malina is so small it is not on maps,
and how they are faring there, without food and water from the outside
world, is unknown.

U.N. officials said, however, that they thought it a reasonable
solution, at least for the time, and they were better off in Malina than
in the crowded refugee camps.

Bejta Delic, 74, a retired construction worker, reached Albania
yesterday after hiding for what he said was 23 days in mountains and
farmlands near Mitrovica. Seven Serb gunmen, their faces masked, kicked
in the door of his house one night last month, just after NATO began its
bombing attacks.

"They beat me on the back," and "one shoved the barrel of his gun in my
mouth and told me that if we didn't leave the house immediately, they
would kill us," he said. Like Delic, many of those forced from their
houses at the start of the Yugoslav government crackdown fled to the
surrounding countryside in the belief, or hope, that NATO's intervention
might quickly halt the Serb offensive. But as the conflict has dragged
on, hiding out has become more difficult, refugees said.

"During the days, we hid in the mountains, away from anybody," said
Delic. "At night, we sneaked into villages to find bakeries and get
bread. . . . Bread is all we ate."

Last night, the Tanjug news agency said NATO planes, attacking in clear
weather, hit an oil refinery in Novi Sad, a chemical plant and oil depot
in Pancevo that sent a noxious cloud drifting toward Belgrade, a
military airport near the capital and the main road from Belgrade to the
Montenegrin capital Podgorica. Serb television reported that a
3-year-old child was killed and five people were injured in a NATO raid
on Batajnica, a Belgrade suburb, and that powerful explosions were heard
in Belgrade just after midnight (6 p.m. EDT Saturday).

NATO authorities said bad weather over Yugoslavia forced cancellation of
all but three missions Friday night and early yesterday. But military
briefers in Brussels and Washington said NATO warplanes managed to
destroy seven or eight Serb tanks in Kosovo along with several armed
personnel carriers and a military helicopter at a Pristina airfield. In
addition, there were strikes against an ammunition plant, army barracks,
a highway bridge and a tunnel said to have been sheltering Yugoslav
aircraft.

For the third day since NATO warplanes were reported to have mistakenly
attacked a convoy of ethnic Albanian refugees in Kosovo, U.S. and NATO
spokesmen declined to offer any explanation for what had gone wrong.
They continued to assert that the matter remained under investigation.

Compounding the confusion that has surrounded the Wednesday assault,
which left scores of refugees dead or injured, a senior Pentagon
official said that the audiotape of an F-16 attack that NATO released
Thursday had nothing to do with the refugee convoy in question. In fact,
the F-16 attack had been a successful strike on a military vehicle, the
official said, not a mistaken hit on a civilian tractor, as NATO's
military spokesman, Italian Brig. Gen. Gieseppe Marani, had asserted.

"That F-16 pilot on the audiotape is not thought to be responsible in
any way for anything other than the attack that he described on a
military vehicle," said Navy Capt. Steve Pietropaoli, spokesman for the
Joint Chiefs of Staff.

Another senior Joint Staff officer said other U.S. warplanes had been
involved in bombing the civilian convoy on a road southeast of
Djakovica. But he declined to detail what happened, pending completion
of NATO's investigation.

In a related development, U.S. defense officials said the capture of a
Yugoslav army lieutenant last week could afford the possibility of an
exchange with three U.S. Army infantrymen seized while on border patrol
in Macedonia 18 days ago and now in Serb custody. But Navy Capt. Michael
Doubleday, a Pentagon spokesman, told reporters that talk of a swap was
"premature" and said he was "not optimistic" given Yugoslavia's
treatment of the U.S. soldiers so far.

He said U.S. authorities know little about the condition of the three
soldiers, who have not been allowed to see Red Cross representatives or
communicate with their families. By contrast, American and NATO
authorities said yesterday that the Yugoslav officer would receive all
rights due him under Geneva Convention rules for treatment of prisoners
of war, including mail and medical care.

The officer, described by U.S. officials as a 21-year-old platoon leader
from the Prva Drugi battalion, was captured by Kosovo Liberation Army
rebels Tuesday night near Junik in Kosovo. He was handed over to
Albania, which transferred him to U.S. Army officials in Tirana on
Friday. Doubleday could not say whether the KLA had set out to seize any
Yugoslav soldiers, why the officer ended up in U.S. hands or if he would
remain there. "The ultimate disposition of the individual is yet to be
determined," Doubleday said.


Booth reported from Skopje, Macedonia, Rupert from Kukes, Albania. Staff
writer Bradley Graham in Washington contributed to this report.
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 Ground Forces in Balkans Expanding
By Robert Burns
AP Military Writer
Sunday, April 18, 1999; 5:05 p.m. EDT

WASHINGTON (AP) -- As hundreds more aircraft join NATO's air campaign, a
less-noticed array of allied ground forces is assembling on the southern
rim of Yugoslavia.

Some were brought to the region for humanitarian work and others for
potential deployment as peacekeepers. But they could serve as the
nucleus of an invasion force if the leaders of NATO reverse themselves
and decide that only an invasion will achieve their aims against
Yugoslavian President Slobodan Milosevic.

The possible deployment of combat troops was discussed on both sides of
the Atlantic Sunday. Secretary of State Madeleine Albright said anew
that the Clinton administration is confident air power will achieve
NATO's purposes and NATO Secretary General Javier Solana said the allies
have no plans to authorize an invasion.

But, in a significant addition to the ongoing ground troop dialogue, he
added that ``if the moment comes when it is necessary'' to invade
Yugoslavia, ``I'm sure the countries that belong to NATO will be ready
to do it.''

Britain's foreign secretary, Robin Cook, stressed it would take two to
three months to prepare an invasion, if one were ordered. Military
experts agree.

Allied ground forces arriving in the Balkans include some of the keys to
ground combat, including U.S. Army Bradley infantry carriers and Apache
attack helicopters, and British battle tanks.

About 12,000 NATO troops are in Macedonia, including some 600 Americans.
In neighboring Albania about 2,000 of a planned force of 8,000 allied
troops are preparing for a humanitarian relief effort. There also are
several thousand U.S. troops in Bosnia as part of a NATO-led
peacekeeping force.

The Albania group includes the vanguard of a U.S. Army contingent,
eventually to total 3,000 or more soldiers, that will operate two
battalions of Apache attack helicopters and land-based missiles.

The Apache force is expected to begin operating soon against Serb
armored forces in Kosovo.

``To a degree, it's academic,'' whether President Clinton will change
his mind about ground troops, said retired Marine Corps Brig. Gen.
Bernard Trainor. ``If you're going to put a force in there, it's going
to take some time to get yourself organized.''

By the time ground forces can be assembled in large enough numbers to
take on an invasion, the Serbs are likely to have completed their
campaign of ``ethnic cleansing'' -- the very acts of violence NATO is
striving to stop.

A NATO assessment last summer concluded that it would take about 200,000
allied group troops to conquer Kosovo.

The allies hope relentless bombing ultimately will force Milosevic to
accept a Kosovo peace deal that includes stationing international
peacekeepers in Kosovo.

To that end, allied ground troops were sent to Macedonia even before the
bombing started March 24. Once ethnic Albanian refugees began streaming
out of Kosovo by the tens of thousands, the NATO troops took up
humanitarian chores. Allied troops in Albania and Macedonia are erecting
tent camps for refugees and providing food and medicine.

The Apache force is expected to begin operating soon against Serb
armored forces in Kosovo.

In her comments Sunday, Albright was undeviating in opposition to
introducing ground troops, a step that would make American casualties
far more likely.

``The president has said he has no intention (of ordering ground troops)
and that the air campaign is inflicting a great deal of damage,''
Albright said on ABC's ``This Week.''

Both British Prime Minister Tony Blair and Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder
of Germany endorsed the U.S. position.

``I think the important thing is to see the strategy we have through,''
Blair said on CBS' ``Face the Nation.'' He stressed ``the dangers of a
land force invasion.''

Schroeder, interviewed on CNN's ``Late Edition,'' said he sees ``no
reason whatsoever'' to consider ground troops. ``Airstrikes have to be
continued, and they have to be sharpened as well,'' Schroeder said.

NATO's Solana denied a British newspaper report that the alliance is
preparing for a late-May invasion of Kosovo.

``At this point, the alliance has no plans to go into an invasion,''
Solana said on ``Fox News Sunday.'' ``We are going to maintain the air
campaign to the end.''

Critics such as presidential hopeful Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., say it
is a mistake to give Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic the assurance
he will not face NATO on the ground.

The ground war debate aside, U.S. officials say Yugoslav troops already
are digging in and mining key land routes into Kosovo.

``I think they expect a NATO invasion,'' Pentagon spokesman Kenneth
Bacon said.

Milosevic's foreign minister, Zivadin Jovanovic, asked on NBC's ``Meet
the Press'' whether Serb forces were prepared for a ground war, said:
``Be sure that we can resist any kind of attacks, any kind of
aggression.''

Jovanovic said the United States and NATO should ``draw lessons'' from
26 days' of ``unsuccessful air raids and aggression'' in his country.

With a peace settlement seemingly dead for now, three possibilities
emerge for the eventual use of NATO ground troops in Kosovo:

-- Invading and expelling Serb troops from the province.

-- Escorting ethnic Albanians back to their villages and protecting them
against Serb reprisals.

-- Opening a land corridor to permit relief organizations to help tens
of thousands of Kosovars hiding in the hills.

Clinton has said no consensus exists either in America or among NATO
allies for a ground war, chiefly because it almost certainly would mean
substantial allied casualties and could ignite a wider war in the
Balkans.

The administration also is concerned about further antagonizing Russia,
a traditional Serb ally which opposes the NATO bombing.

The second option is feasible, administration officials say, only if
Milosevic agrees to accept the entry of peacekeepers. That seems
unlikely, given that Milosevic's rejection of an international force
doomed the Kosovo peace talks in the first place.

NATO officials are studying a land corridor for humanitarian relief, but
that step is unlikely, Bacon said last week.

Bacon emphasized the complications NATO would face in attempting a land
invasion: mountainous terrain limits attack routes from Macedonia and
Albania; few navigable roads; and Serb artillery and mined bridges.

Attacking from the north, through Hungary, would mean fighting the Serbs
all the way to Kosovo in southern Serbia, Bacon said, suggesting that
was an unlikely option.

Even getting troops to the area would be hard, Bacon said, given the
lack of major ports and airfields.
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E'S DEFENCE WEEKLY BRIEFING

BALKAN ENDGAME?


Following devastating
airstrikes in Yugoslavia,
what are the options for
an acceptable settlement
on the ground? Richard
Bassett examines the
prospects for the future
and the lessons of the
past


In the wake of NATO's attack on Yugoslavia the Balkans ends the century
much as it began; an expression of great power rivalry and a source of
potentially destabilising conflict.

As at least one military historian of note, John Keegan, has written,
the
problems of Bosnia, Macedonia and indeed Kosovo would be wearily
familiar
to any official of the Austro-Hungarian empire posted to Sarajevo in
1908. The
inevitable competing spheres of influence led the great 19th-century
German
Chancellor, Bismarck, to observe: "The Balkans are not worth the bones
of a
Pomeranian Grenadier."

If history is one of the inescapable millstones of the Balkans,
geography is
another. Albania today still lies across two of the most important
routes that link
Europe with the East.

Its appearance on the global stage, in 1912 at the Ambassador's
conference,
when it was described as the "child of Austria, with Italy acting as
midwife" was
an attempt to balance the pretensions of Russia's main proteg� in the
region,
Serbia, and limit its access to the Mediterranean.

Today, there is still anxiety on the part of the western powers, notably
the USA,
over Serbian and, by extension, Russian influence over the eastern
Mediterranean. At the same time, those in Europe (judging by recent
comments from the French Prime Minister Lionel Jospin, they include
France)
who, like Russia, are fretful of the "naked expansion of US power" in
the
aftermath of the Cold War, are equally keen to ensure that the Balkans
does
not become a US sphere of influence.

Former West German Chancellor, Helmut Schmidt, underlined his belief
that
this was just a new twist to the old game when he said in a recent
interview:
"Only the Americans would be naive enough to imagine that there could be
a
lasting peace in the Balkans".

If, after the airstrikes, Milosevic backs down and a multi-national
force is
deployed then that force may not be an entirely NATO entity.

Seen in the context of any future envisaged troop deployment in Kosovo,
it is
clear that Serbia could only sign up to a deployment which reflected an
agreement between the powers (in this case the USA, on the one hand, and
Russia and Moscow's supporters on the other).

Such an agreement has proved extremely difficult to reach, not least
because
of exaggerated demands on both sides which have had to be reined in by
some very tough negotiation between US Secretary of State, Madelaine
Albright and Russian prime minister and former KGB spymaster, Yevgeny
Primakov.

But all the powers know that only when faced with a credible united
front can
Milosevic be persuaded to back down. Eventually the advantages of having
the West disarm the Kosovo Liberation Army (KLA) may become apparent to
the Serbs and the stationing of Russian troops will ensure the
protection of
their fellow Slav citizens in Kosovo.

One of the most sensitive issues is the exact positioning of the Russian
contingent as this will inevitably be the de facto line of partition in
the province.
In the eyes of the KLA, the British and the French, traditional allies
of the Serbs
in two world wars, can also be relied on to defend the Serbs, though
London
and Paris would, with reason, deny this.

As the French and UK forces would come under a NATO commander, the KLA
believes that US influence which is largely pro-Albanian would manage to
prevent a too tough approach being taken towards the Albanians.

However, recent suggestions to shift the political control structure of
the
deployment from NATO to the Organisation for Security and Co-operation
in
Europe (OSCE) would of course neutralise US influence and be an ominous
development for the Albanians.

It is, however, quite feasible to see a de facto splintering of Kosovo
into
separate zones not dissimilar to those which divided Berlin, Vienna and
Trieste and its hinterland after 1945, though presumably with more
cordial
relations between the various participating forces than during the Cold
War.
However, given the different interests of the participants and the fact
that a
NATO and Russian force would be sitting cheek by jowl under separate
commands, it can be assumed that a great deal of time and energy will be
devoted to working out the correct protocols to govern this interface of
highly
sensitive, and in practice divergent, commands.

However, even if in Kosovo there is an eventual resolution of the
spheres-of-influence problem, the Albanian question, as is frequently
mentioned, also spills into Macedonia and(less frequently mentioned)
Montenegro.

Macedonia has an ethnic population of Albanians which comprises 23% of
the
country's entire population. Fears that it would try to break away from
the
republic have been behind the generally cordial ties between Skopje and
Belgrade.

Despite denials by the ethnic Albanian leaders, there is no doubt that,
situated
as they are close to the Albanian frontier, the temptations of a future
tie-up with
a Greater Albania remain high on the agenda.

Even without the Albanian issue, Macedonia has long been a controversial
hot
spot where Greek, Bulgarian and Serbian interests collide. Greece has
long
contested the right of the Macedonians to use the name of Macedonia,
saying
that it implied a territorial claim over Greek territory. Moreover,
Greek
politicians until relatively recently attempted to undermine the new
state at
international forums and in discussions involving new trade links.

However, more recently under Russian, US and European pressure the
Athens government has adopted a more supportive line, though this is of
little
comfort to the ethnic Albanian minority.

Bulgaria which has long maintained that Macedonian is only a Bulgarian
dialect, has also become more supportive of the government in Skopje,
though this is partly a result of the government, dominated by the newly
elected VMRO party, enjoying traditional ties with Bulgaria.

Before the Second World War, Bulgaria financed with Italy the VMRO party
which was then dedicated to destroying the newly created Yugoslav state
and
was implicated in the assassination of King Alexander of Yugoslavia in
Marseilles in 1934.

The news earlier this month that Bulgaria is to donate 150 main battle
tanks,
including 115 T-55As, and nearly 150 artillery pieces caused some
concern in
western embassies. The concern was particularly acute over the arms
import
as the Bulgarian donation came on the heels of the supply by Germany of
BTR-70 armoured personnel carriers. With all Macedonian army leave
cancelled and the deployment of two brigades on the Albanian/Kosovo
frontier, analysts fear that the arsenal now being created in this small
country is
a tinderbox awaiting ignition.

More ominously, the build-up of weapons, with the tacit agreement of
Belgrade
suggests that the future of Macedonia may have already been decided by
its
neighbours.

The emergence of Bulgaria as a regional player is also viewed with some
disquiet in the region - traditionally Bulgaria and Serbia have a long
history of
emnity, though some analysts point to the old Comintern idea of a
Serbian-Bulgarian federation possibly being revived. Such a development,
however, has been described as two stranded swimmers linking hands
across
a sea of Macedonian troubles.

Certainly the agreement on 22 February by the Bulgarian and Macedonian
governments to "put an end to the artificial problems between our two
countries" suggests that events are moving rapidly towards some form of
anti-Albanian front and that a military "solution" may be imminent.

The language of the February agreement is adamant in its reconciliation
of the
Bulgarian-Macedonian differences claiming that neither government will
allow
its territory to be used by groups hostile to the other. In diplomatic
jargon this
is a clear warning to Albanian groups smuggling weapons into or, indeed,
out
of Macedonia.

It remains to be seen whether this agreement stabilises Macedonia. The
clear
anti-Albanian implications of the agreement may drive the ethnic
minority in
Macedonia to desperate measures. Moreover, in the long-term, Bulgarian
-Serbian-Greek rivalry over Macedonia is inevitable and partition may be
unavoidable also here.

Montenegro also has a sizeable Albanian community though only forming 8%
of the population. Moreover, in contrast to the Albanians in Macedonia
and
Kosovo, these Albanians are predominantly Catholic rather than Muslim.

However, Montenegro is at perhaps one of the most strategic points in
the
Adriatic. Already at the beginning of this century, the Imperial
Austrian Navy
saw the importance of the great bay of Kotor, which until the Second
World
War was one of the most naturally defensible harbours in the Adriatic.

Even today, the harbour is the major naval installation of the Yugoslav
navy
and is Serbia's vital access to the Adriatic. The harbour is guarded by
the
Prevlaka peninsular (see map) which has been the bone of contention
between
Serbia and Croatia since hostilities ended between those two countries
four
years ago. Croatia is adamant that it cannot cede control of the
peninsular
without endangering its own security interests although for the same
reason,
Serbia is determined to ensure that the peninsular is controlled by
Belgrade.
Otherwise the entire Serbian fleet and its facilities can be deployed
only
subject to Croatian veto. Unsurprisingly, these facilities were a
priority target for
NATO attack.

Partly for this reason, Serbia last year initiated a plan to move
against
Montenegro's democratically elected anti-Belgrade government. The plan
met
with considerable resistance among the upper ranks of the Yugoslav army,
many of whose officers are Montenegrin and provoked the resignation of
the
Serbian Chief of the General staff, General Perisic.

A move against Montenegro is still likely, however, for the strategic
reasons
outlined above especially if western funds, particularly from Germany,
continue
to pour into Montenegro in an attempt to detach the leadership there
from
Milosevic's control. As well as German attention, Montenegro remains a
traditional focus for Russian activity. Before 1914, the Russians
established the
biggest of the legations in the Montenegrin capital.

During the Cold War, a small but significant remnant of this legacy
remained in
the shape of the small Soviet merchantman spy-vessel which remained at
anchor in the bay of Kotor, despite Tito's break with the Comintern in
1948. It
was a token presence but one which underlined the Churchill-Stalin deal
that
Yugoslavia should be divided 50-50.

For the West that meant a Yugoslavia that was not part of the Warsaw
Pact. For
the Soviets that meant despite the formal break no offensive activity or
alliance
with NATO. For both sides there were small intelligence favours of which
the
Kotor merchantman was one.

Russia's views on events in Montenegro are likely to be consonant with
those
of Serbia and therefore hostile to any moves that appear to detach the
country
from the Serbian orbit.

Thus as the century ends, the problems of the region remain bound up
with the
ambitions and aspirations of the global powers as well as the hopes of
different ethnic groups. It is therefore perhaps illuminating to examine
in some
detail the solutions those powers sought to impose on the region in
those
times.

Before the First World War, diplomacy was secret though in practice
there
were no secrets between ambassadors and those involved in foreign
affairs.
An exception, perhaps, occurred during the First World War with the
controversial Treaty of London which lured Italy into breaking its
alliance with
Austria and Germany in order to gain territory at Vienna's expense.

Fortunately for students of diplomacy in the Balkans, the treaty was
published
when the Bolsheviks came to power in Russia in 1917.

In addition to the clauses relevant to Italy's northern territorial
acquisitions,
there were several which underlined the status of the Adriatic � the
region
which is now so hotly contested.

Italy was given important rights over the direction of Albania's foreign
policy.
Albania itself remained partitioned between Serbia, Greece and Italy
which had
rights over the port of Vlore (Valona), the key to the Straits of
Otranto.

The rump Albania was designated a Muslim state to be governed from
Tirana,
a concession few European states would tolerate today in a period of
increasing religious polarisation and anti-islamic feeling. Above all,
however,
the signatories to the treaty, which included Russia and France, all
agreed to
work together to prevent the Balkans becoming an area of dispute between
them. In the attempted agreements hammered out between NATO and Russia
the spirit of this Treaty can still be seen, however different the
territorial lines
drawn on the map today. Although the USA is a new player in this game,
there
are reasons to think that it does wish to work through consensus though
it may
not understand as vividly as the Europeans the potential dangers of an
uncontrolled conflict originating in the Balkans. NATO's surprise
guarantee of
Albania's territorial integrity last week is incompatible with the
Treaty of
London's intentions.

In any event the USA's room for manoeuvre has been dramatically cut down
by the coalition of European and Russian forces which are traditionally
pro-Serbian. It remains to be seen what the USA can do for the Albanians
despite all the talk of this being a "single-polar world".

For its part, the UK, for which the Balkans has always been a
traditional area of
expertise, remains committed to establishing a lasting solution for the
region.
Although it no longer stands at England's imperial jugular, the region
remains
critical to the Mediterranean and the long-term interests of Europe. As
far as
London is concerned, it is synonymous with the 500-year-old game of
erecting
a balance of power.

The interests of the third partner, Russia, however, remain perhaps the
most
constant -preservation of some presence, albeit a token one, along the
Adriatic and the prevention of the peninsular being dominated by any one
power. Here the activities of the USA are a cause for serious alarm in
Russian
strategic counsels.

The precarious internal situation in Russia also militates against the
confidence-building measures the West feels are essential to any joint
solution
of the Balkans crisis. The obvious policy disputes between Russian
President
Boris Yeltsin and Primakov may be just questions of degree but they
continue
to overshadow the ability to come to agreements at the highest level
which
can be seen as having a chance of sticking.

Yet without such an agreement there is every indication that the Balkans
will
continue to smoulder and that the flames of ethnic cleansing will
continue to
blaze for several years to come.

Richard Bassett, JDW's Business Editor, is a former Central Europe
correspondent for the Times of London
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