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The following is an excerpt from the CSS Internet News

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Hunger HURTS, let's make sure everyone has enough this holiday season!
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PREDICTIONS FOR 1999

Okay, I know it is a bit early, but I've been asked to give ten
predictions for the Internet/computer industry in 1999. Before
giving them, I'd like to recap my 1998 predictions, many of which
I believe have turned out to be reasonably accurate.

1998 Predictions Recap

1) Information overload will become a central issue for the Internet
in 1998, as basic search engines begin to lose their value.

2) Ecommerce will flourish in America and will show strong growth
in Europe, with business-to-business transactions leading the way.

3) The Web will stay simple in 1998: lots of content, driven by
databases, with small graphics, no gee whiz, and thus fast
downloads.

4) By the end of 1998, the PC will have well and truly become a mass
market product, with quality PCs selling for well under USD1,000.

5) Microsoft will find that there are limits to how large and
powerful it is allowed to get.

6) There will be at least 150 million Internet users worldwide by
the end of 1998. (Nua's current estimate is 150 million -
http://www.nua.ie/surveys/how_many_online/index.html)

7) The Internet will force many middlemen/distributors to transform
their business models or face decline/liquidation.

8) Small pockets of high-bandwidth will exist but for the average
consumer bandwidth will remain scarce.

9) Driven by child abuse, hate abuse, spam abuse and taxation
issues, Governments will pay a lot more attention to the Internet
in 1998, and a wide range of legislation will either be prepared
or enacted.

10) 1999 will be the year when the Internet becomes truly mass
market.

1999 Predictions

1) There will be more than 200 million people using the Internet
worldwide. (The wider acceptance of set-top boxes for televisions
could explode this figure.)

2) The 'World Wide' Web will look much less 'world-wide' as
individual countries and cultures stamp their identity on it.

This will result in the necessity to create multilingual versions
of websites whose tone and business approach are founded in that
particular culture.

3) What will destroy the myth of the 'World Wide' Web is bandwidth.
The difference in experience of a user in a poor bandwidth country
in comparison to a user in a rich bandwidth country will be like
rich and poor; upstairs, downstairs; black and white; chalk and
cheese.

4) The myth that it is cheap to develop for the Internet will be
well and truly hammered, as companies realise that running a
successful website requires quality staffing, ongoing development
and substantial investment in promotion and marketing.

5) Branding will be everything on the Internet, as all but the
largest of brand websites find it increasingly difficult to
attract visitors.

6) Email will remain the killer application for the Internet but
will cause serious headaches for organisations who do not have
proper usage and storage/deletion policies

7) The Linux operating system and open source software in general
will grow in acceptance though it will by no means topple Microsoft

8) Whether it happens in 1999 or not, Microsoft will have to be
broken up. It has simply got too big, too all-powerful, and no
matter what sort of public relations spin is put on it, this is
not good for the consumer.

9) The computer industry, having learned from Apple that consumers
like products that have style, will start bringing out computers
that have a bit of visual flair

10) Ecommerce, having become common in America, will gain ground
in Europe, though the focus will still be business-to-business

Gerry McGovern
mailto:gerry@nua.ie

Courtesy NUA, Ireland

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Also in this issue:

- Web makes tracking family relatively simple
    Sticky family issues are no longer the exclusive domain of Dear Abby
    or Ann Landers. Adoption, divorce, and the instincts of a future
    mother-in-law give the Virtual Woman her challenges for this week!
- Cyberloafing becoming all too common at office
    Harassment and legal issues are also Net dangers
- Lewinsky book goes online Monday morning
    A British publishing company said Sunday it would put a new book on
    Monica Lewinsky's sexual affair with President Clinton directly onto
    the Internet on Monday.
- MIT teens create cyberspace forum for children
    A group of teenagers have created a country for children named
    Nation 1.0 that exists in cyberspace as a forum for children to
    express ideas and argue their rights.
- Net Site Found To Supply False Data
    CHICAGO (AP) -- A computer program glitch is causing the National
    Association of Realtors' new Internet site to provide inaccurate
    ratings of school systems across the country, the Chicago Tribune
    reported Sunday.
- AOL to buy Netscape?
    In what would be one of the technology world's biggest transactions
    ever, the world's top online service reportedly is in talks to
    purchase Netscape Communications Corp. for about $4 billion in
    stock.
- The Week in Review
    The Internet's Top Newsmakers of the Week.
- New Lists and Journals
    * NEW: ON PURPOSE - How to Create and Live a Meaningful Life
    * CHANGE: The Webmaster's Digest
    * CHANGE: CML - Chronic Myelogenous Leukemia Online Support





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