Re: Fermi method and "hemibel thinking"?

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1 total messages Started by David Lunney Mon, 15 May 1995 00:00

#93

Author: David Lunney
Date: Mon, 15 May 1995 00:00

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The postings on the Fermi method (in which a rough guess at a quantity
is deemed to be better than no number at all) reminded me of a piece I
read in the Scientific American many years ago on "hemibel thinking", in
which the object of the game is to arrive at estimates within about a
factor of three, rather than a factor of 10 (or 100, or 1000). I believe
the method arose in strategic game-playing done in by the US military
establishment and their various think tanks: I have no idea who
originated it.

Has anybody else heard of this method?

David Lunney
Department of Chemistry
East Carolina University
Greenville, NC 27858 USA
VOICE: 919-758-6453  919-328-6713
FAX: 919-758-0967  919-328-6210
CHLUNNEY@ECUVM.CIS.ECU.EDU (internet)

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