🚀 go-pugleaf

NOTE:

THIS MESSAGE WAS ORIGINALLY POSTED ON WX-CHASE.  I'M MOVING THIS
DISCUSSION THREAD BACK TO THE SKYWARN LIST WHERE IT TECHNICALLY
BELONGS.  ..CHRIS..

Matt Biddle <mbiddle@UOKNOR.EDU> wrote:

>First Sirens SHOULD NEVER be the sole source of warnings. They are of
>less and less use today due to our noisy environment, modern air
>conditioning and house construction, mobile population, etc and really
>only alert outside people to check the tv or radio.

I agree.  There needs to be a big push once EAS gets going.  I'd like
to see Radio Shack offer a special pricing deal on its new generation of
weather radios in order to get as many into the hands of people as possible.
Instead of pricing them at, say $50, maybe they could sell them for $25.
If they sell twice as many, at half the price, they're no worse off and the
public is ultimately better served.  Anyone from Radio Shack listening??!!

>There is NO standardized criteria - which IMO is a problem. I am lobbying
>the National Fire Protection Assn to devise one. For instance a couple of
>years ago Hamilton County Ohio (to the chigrin of NWS) was blowing their
>sirens for severe thunderstorm warnings! I think that in this day and age
>uniformity in text, timing , and tiers of urgency need to be uniform
>about the nation if we expect people to take proactive precautionary
>measures. (This is from the soap box).

This is a tough issue.  We have local criteria that allows us to activate
the sirens for major damaging wind events (specifically 85+ MPH).  In July
of 1980 we had a macroburst that produced 120+ MPH winds across a wide area
and caused incredible damage.  We feel that winds capable of destroying homes
or producing lethal debris deserve a "tornado warning".  While technically
speaking the winds are not tornadic winds, the sirens is not intended to
differentiate between rotating vs. straight-line winds.   They're designed
to differentiate between storms with a high potential for killing people
vs. those that are not.  A problem arises, however, when tornado sirens are
used for marginally severe events.  One community to our northwest activates
their sirens every time someone reports wind damage.  It amazes me that the
emergency management Coordinator keeps his job.  That people don't complain
tells me that they either don't know better or they feel satisfied that
the sirens are being used appropriately.  I could do a survey and find out
what's really going on but in this part of the country if you raise a stink
you might end up being found dead in a swamp somewhere.

>Another note - There is a very acute and very real cost to an emergency
>manager who blows the siren when his town is not then affected by severe
>weather. Evidence suggests that the "cry wolf" response to unvalidated
>warnings can be measured after as few a one event!

I have never tested this theory in a scientific setting but common sense
tells me that if I over-warn people will stop believing me.  Thus my policy
is to use the sirens very sparingly.  I do feel, however, that emergency
managers need to get a better handle on what's going on --in each individual
storm event-- and try to logically evaluate the situation instead of defaulting
to a knee-jerk reaction.  The whole thing boils down to the need for better
training for emergency managers and finding ways of getting more tactical
information into their hands (like RCM data).

>In small towns I would try to not blow the siren even if NWS put my county
>under warning if I could see that it may not affect me. This is why humans
>need to be involved in the chain, and that blaming the NWS for siren
>activation based on automated products is unfair.

I mostly agree here.  In my post yesterday on SKYWARN I mentioned that nearby
communities were blowing their sirens the other night based solely on NWS
radar-indicated tornado warnings and that this bothered me.  Under *ideal*
circumstances, daylight; good visibility; well-trained spotters already
deployed; classic supercell structure; and a good radar track record, I
would feel very comfortable "ignoring" an NWS tornado warning and holding
off on blowing the sirens until we actually see something.  Storms that
exhibit mesocyclone signatures do not necessarily always produce tornadoes
and storms
that have produced tornadoes before do not necessarily produce them again.
Part of reducing false alarms is letting the NWS know when a storm is no
longer producing a tornado.  However, not all storms are perfect.  Here in
southern Illinois most of our tornadic storms are the HP variety.  The
tornadoes are often rain-wrapped and hidden by low clouds and trees.  Even
trained spotters may have great difficulty identifying tornadoes under these
circumstances.  I know better than to say "you can always see a tornado
coming" and I would be foolish to activate sirens only if I can see the
tornado.  However, I too am still very uncomfortable with radar alone.
Paducah, KY (PAH)
has been using their Doppler radar for only about one year.  Perhaps, in
time, as NWS PAH's skill increases and my confidence in their ability to
differentiate between tornadic and non-tornadic storms improves, I will
be more likely to activate my sirens based solely on a radar-indicated
event.

One big help would be for the NWS to have its own VHF or UHF repeater
network that emergency managers could check into and have an NWS meteorologist
operating the radio (not a ham radio operator just relaying what he's told).
By having two-way communication between the NWS and local communities NWS
forecasters could better convey tactical information and subtle details about
severe storms to the emergency managers and the emergency managers would be
more likely to report their damaging conditions in real-time  --as opposed to
hours or days later as is often the case.  I've been suggesting such a system
for years but so far nobody is biting.

>Most of the time when I come into a town and everyone is outside standing
>on the porch - I then now for sure that the sirens have just sounded.
>Unfortunately, most people no longer take simply the cue from sirens as
>enough to illicit protective behaviors.

This was sure the case last Friday.  I was in Randolph County Illinois
(southeast of St. Louis) and it looked like a parade.  There were police
cars, fire trucks, and emergency vehicles all along the street with their
lights going and everyone in town (well let's just say a lot of people)
was out on the street looking up at the sky.  Being outside is not the
best place to be during a tornado although I suspect that if someone did
see one coming people would duck into their basements in the nick of time.

..Chris..
*====================================================================*
Chris Hayes Novy - WA9V   Internet: chris@siu.edu
Southern Illinois Univ.             chris@lib.siu.edu
Systems Administration       Phone: (618) 453-1683 (work)
Morris Library                      (618) 457-6149 (home)
Carbondale, IL 62901-6632      FAX: (618) 453-3440
*====================================================================*