🚀 go-pugleaf

In article <lmarshall.454.2FFD6F70@pnfi.forestry.ca>,
lmarshall@pnfi.forestry.ca (Larry Marshall) writes:
>
> >It is a given that the global economy has been increasing while at the
> >same time deforestation has also increased. How exactly are you going
> >to LINK these two phenomena?
>
> >When 2 variables are changing in a constant direction during the same time
> >are they therefore  necessarily LINKED?
>
> Absolutely...in fact, I've been arguing this with my wife.  She says that my
> waistline is growing because I eat too much.  I've pointed out, however,
> that my waistline growth is positively correlated with the national debt and
> therefore....well...nevermind.  You probably wouldn't buy it either :-)
>
To establish a plausible causal link between economic growth and deforestation
you would want to account for other possible factors such as population
growth, rates of consumption, changes in technology in terms of being able
to use trees for more things such as paper, rayon, and vanillin, as well as
the technology to more efficiently strip forests bare and replant them (or not)
with genetically engineered hybrids and so on.
With an Analysis of Covariance, these other factors' influences can be held
constant and we can see perhaps what portion of deforestation is directly
correlated with "economic growth". I don't think the two are so far removed
from each other that a plausible theory linking them together could not be
proposed from that point.
It might also be useful to construct a more complex model with the several
interrelated factors mentioned above in addition to others and conduct a
path analysis and see to what degree they are associated with each other
as well as to deforestation.

Terrence Willett
Environmental Studies
San Jose State University

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                       cHaoS breeds no mold