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Article #113

Forecast: F3-F5 Tornados to hit (S)E. VA and MD 25-30 Aug. 03 usa

#113
From: M L D 1111
Date: Mon, 25 Aug 2003 08:34
71 lines
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It is forecasted that one or more SEVERE tornado's will appear in SE to E VA 
and travel possibly on over to MD and will have winds on the order of 158 mph
to 300 MPH.  The time period for this forecast is:

Immediately until 5 days from now (25 Aug - 30 Aug. 03)

This forecast is based on an experimental hypothesis supported by some data. 
The information at hand is that this/these tornado's will reach F4 and will
more than likely be multiple F5's.   As shown in the scale below these F5's
cause incredible damage.   Boaters should restrict useage on the Chesapeake Bay
during this periond of time if the weather starts to turn in favor of this
forecast.

If this /these tornado's do appear then significant damage can be expected
along with a large list of casualties (and possibly fatalities).

(Ref:  F3- F5 tornado scale):
The Fujita Tornado Scale 
Maximum Wind Speeds  Equivalent 
Saffir-Simpson 
Scale*  Typical Effects  

F3 Category Tornado  
158-206 mph 
(137-179 kt)  Cat 5  Severe Tornado. Severe damage: Roofs and some walls torn
off well-constructed houses; trains overturned; most trees in forests uprooted;
heavy cars lifted off the ground and thrown; weak pavement blown off roads.  

F4 Category Tornado  
207-260 mph 
(180-226 kt)  Cat 5?  Devastating Tornado. Devastating damage: Well constructed
homes leveled; structures with weak foundations blown off some distance; cars
thrown and disintegrated; large missiles generated; trees in forest uprooted
and carried some distance away.  

F5 Category Tornado  
261-318 mph 
(227-276 kt)  NA  Incredible Tornado. Incredible damage: Strong frame houses
lifted off foundations and carried considerable distance to disintegrate;
automobile-sized missiles fly through the air in excess of 300 ft (100 m);
trees debarked; incredible phenomena will occur.  




--------------------------------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------
F0 Category Tornado  
40-72 mph 
(35-62 kt)  NA  Gale Tornado. Light Damage: Some damage to chimneys; breaks
twigs and branches off tress; pushes over shallow-rooted trees; damages
signboards; some windows broken; hurricane wind speed begins at 73 mph.  

F1 Category Tornado  
73-112 mph 
(63-97 kt)  Cat 1/2/3  Moderate Tornado. Moderate damage: Peels surfaces off
roofs; mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned; outbuildings
demolished; moving autos pushed off the roads; trees snapped or broken.  

F2 Category Tornado  
113-157 mph 
(98-136 kt)  Cat 3/4/5  Significant Tornado. Considerable damage: Roofs torn
off frame houses; mobile homes demolished; frame houses with weak foundations
lifted and moved; boxcars pushed over; large trees snapped or uprooted;
light-object missiles generated.  

Disclaimer:  Not responsible for the use of misuse of this experimental data. 
Use at your own risk.  No liability expressed or implied.  The odds of this
forecast coming true is about 33%.  

  
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From: mld1111@aol.comnetorg (M L D 1111)
Newsgroups: bit.listserv.wx-chase
Date: 25 Aug 2003 08:34:57 GMT
Organization: AOL http://www.aol.com
Subject: Forecast:  F3-F5 Tornados to hit (S)E. VA and MD 25-30 Aug. 03 usa
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