🚀 go-pugleaf

Jim Johnson writes:

>      I hasten to remind that PC-GRIDDS is a manipulation software which
>     uses *MODEL GRIDDED DATA* with all of it's attendant foibles, caveats
>     and limitations. Better you should do some *SOUND* analysis first so
>     you know which parts of the GRIDDS fields you should ignore!!! My
>     ***personal opinion*** is you can do as well in the long term using
>     older methods and much better in the short term using *SOUND*
>     principles of meteorological analysis.

Of course, understanding what is going on now is paramount to
understanding what will happen in the future. And....

>     Currently, gridded data is available for the ETA, MESO-ETA, NGM, AVN,
>     RUC (of the ETA) and MAP. It's frequent that these models each have a
>     different solution to the atmosphere with time. How you gonna know
>     which one to use (or, indeed, whether you can use any of them) unless
>     you've got a good sound analysis of the atmosphere to start with!

I agree, but...

>     Heaven???  Not in my opinion. These tools may be flashy, but they often
>     just throw more smoke and mirrors up between the forecaster and the
>     truth. Just what we forecasters need! More nifty doo-dads to distract
>     us from the processes going on in the atmosphere!! I'd trade all the
>     model grids, CRAY's and my Aunt Nellie for a denser network of surface
>     data (like the Oklahoma meso-net) that reports, say, every 20 mins.

If you know your stuff, you'll know what will happen in the short term
and you can then decide which models are off track right away when
forecasting longer term.

Used properly as a *tool*, and not as a crutch, PC-GRIDDS is fanastic!

Gilbert

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Gilbert Sebenste                                                     ********
Internet: sebenste@geog.niu.edu    (My opinions only!)                 *****
Owner of the Storm Chaser Homepage                                     ***
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