🚀 go-pugleaf

"Evan.Bookbinder" <Evan.Bookbinder@noaa.gov> wrote in message
news:3B795FA2.2B95C68E@noaa.gov...
> Robert,
>
> >Why did you even bother to write?  Sounds like you've already
> >judged my project as impossible.  What good did your government
> >agency the NOAA system for Orlando Florida in Spring 97?
> >They did not have a warning system in place.  How many died?
>
> I think you're misunderstanding my point. I would be delighted to see some
> unique way other than Doppler radar to "detect" tornadoes and/or tornadic
> signatures. However, in my opinion, without placing remote sensing
equipment
> every few hundred feet (wind/pressure), I do not think that your proposal
can
> be achieved. More importantly, my writings are my opinions only, and not
> necessarily those of my colleagues or the NWS. The government and private
> sectors must work together, not separately, if we're to quickly advance
> tornado research. Regarding your case, I'm not in Florida, and have no
idea
> which event you're talking about...but keep in mind that "my" government
> agency is also "your" government agency. I'm also sure that you're
extremely
> qualified in what you do, but keep in mind that my opinions come from a
> meteorological perspective, not an electronics one.
>
> Now, regarding the changes in barometric pressure near a tornado, the most
> rapid change in pressure occurs very close to the core of the tornado
(much
> like a hurricane), resulting in the destructive winds caused by it.
Someone
> from Project VORTEX or other studies may have some real numerical data for
> you, and the only data I have on station follows in the next paragraph.
Keep
> in mind that a tornado's winds are directly related to the pressure
> gradient...so that a weaker tornado would have a much higher ambient
> barometric pressure. Therefore, doing some quick number crunching, it
would
> appear to me that one would have to be within several thousand feet
maximum of
> a tornado, to record enough of a pressure drop to signify the onset of a
> tornado. At that distance, a warning detection device would leave to no
time
> to react before the onset of damage.
>
> "On December 14, 1971, a tornado which began to the immediate southwest of
> Republic, cut a swath through the city of Republic, and moved directly
> northeast to pass over WSO SGF at 1125 PM CST. The entire terminal
building
> received considerable damage. The gust recorder reached past the maximum
of
> 100 knots. One cup was blown from the anemometer even though the
anemometer
> was about 1000 ft from the center of the tornado path. The barograph
dipped
> abruptly to a station pressure of 27.52 inches(sea level 28.83")."
>
> Sincerely,
> Evan
>
> P.S. With a college degree, I sure hope you'd spell it correctly.
>
> Robert Miller wrote:
>

Hello Evan!

    It was not a degree in English., and I used a spell checker extensively.
:-)

Basically my idea is for a device that will detect the tornado, but since it
can only
detect one as close as the back yard it is next to useless for the home that
has
the detector.  So it broadcasts a signal to every other device within range.
I
believe I can get the production costs down to about $40.00 each maybe less.
One detector in a city is useless.  So if I could seed a city with 1,000
detectors,
still rather sparse.  Every device purchased would increase the
effectiveness of
the network.

If I could install 2,000 detectors in St. Louis at $100.00 each, or
$200,000.00.
The price of a single moderately priced Life Insurance policy.  How much
does a
Doppler radar cost?  How effectively can they detect tornado's on the
ground?

It would still not detect every tornado, especially in rural areas.  However
it would
detect many as just one more tool.  Hopefully cheaply enough to become as
widespread in danger areas as a simple smoke detector.  In fact a smoke
detector
and or carbon monoxide detector could be incorporated into this device for
just a
few cents.

Even if I do not build this thing somebody should.  I didn't think it up to
make money,
but to save lives.  That's as much as I dare describe my detector in public.
The first
one will cost maybe $750,000 to produce, after that perhaps $40.00 each with
state
of the art technology.

If anybody wants to help me with this and willing to sign a non-disclosure
statement can send me an email at stargazr@alltel.net . I already have an
engineering and programming
staff, but short on backing.

Have a great day!
Robert Miller

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Robert,

>Why did you even bother to write?  Sounds like you've already
>judged my project as impossible.  What good did your government
>agency the NOAA system for Orlando Florida in Spring 97?
>They did not have a warning system in place.  How many died?

I think you're misunderstanding my point. I would be delighted to see some
unique way other than Doppler radar to "detect" tornadoes and/or tornadic
signatures. However, in my opinion, without placing remote sensing equipment
every few hundred feet (wind/pressure), I do not think that your proposal can
be achieved. More importantly, my writings are my opinions only, and not
necessarily those of my colleagues or the NWS. The government and private
sectors must work together, not separately, if we're to quickly advance
tornado research. Regarding your case, I'm not in Florida, and have no idea
which event you're talking about...but keep in mind that "my" government
agency is also "your" government agency. I'm also sure that you're extremely
qualified in what you do, but keep in mind that my opinions come from a
meteorological perspective, not an electronics one.

Now, regarding the changes in barometric pressure near a tornado, the most
rapid change in pressure occurs very close to the core of the tornado (much
like a hurricane), resulting in the destructive winds caused by it. Someone
from Project VORTEX or other studies may have some real numerical data for
you, and the only data I have on station follows in the next paragraph. Keep
in mind that a tornado's winds are directly related to the pressure
gradient...so that a weaker tornado would have a much higher ambient
barometric pressure. Therefore, doing some quick number crunching, it would
appear to me that one would have to be within several thousand feet maximum of
a tornado, to record enough of a pressure drop to signify the onset of a
tornado. At that distance, a warning detection device would leave to no time
to react before the onset of damage.

"On December 14, 1971, a tornado which began to the immediate southwest of
Republic, cut a swath through the city of Republic, and moved directly
northeast to pass over WSO SGF at 1125 PM CST. The entire terminal building
received considerable damage. The gust recorder reached past the maximum of
100 knots. One cup was blown from the anemometer even though the anemometer
was about 1000 ft from the center of the tornado path. The barograph dipped
abruptly to a station pressure of 27.52 inches(sea level 28.83")."

Sincerely,
Evan

P.S. With a college degree, I sure hope you'd spell it correctly.

Robert Miller wrote:

> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Evan Bookbinder" <Evan.Bookbinder@noaa.gov>
> To: <stargazr@alltel.net>
> Sent: Tuesday, August 14, 2001 8:41 AM
> Subject: Tornado Warning Device
>
> > Robert,
> >
> > You're not serious are you? Unlike lightning, which has a distinct
> > electromagnetic field, or smoke/radon/carbon monoxide which omit unique
> > properties that can be detected by a sensor...there is no way to "detect
> > or sense" a tornado, especially one that has yet to develop. If this
> > were true, we would have 100% verification statistics on tornado
> > warnings. There is much unknown about the formation of tornadoes, and
> > since most tornadoes have winds < 100 mph, your attempt is not much more
> > than a wasted effort. Even the roar of a tornado cannot always be heard,
> > and usually it's too late by then.
> >
> > The best early warning device is a NOAA weather radio or an Internet
> > warning device that can alert people when a tornado warning is issued by
> > the National Weather Service. These are small and cheap enough to go
> > into people's homes, and many own them already. There are projects
> > underway to fund free radios to those who cannot otherwise afford these
> > devices (especially in mobile homes).
> >
> > Anyways, back to the point at hand, while a great venture and idea, it
> > simply cannot be done at this given stage of understanding the science
> > behind tornadoes. You're probably the 20th person to come up with this
> > idea since I've been a member of this newsgroup, so this definitely
> > isn't something new.
> >
> > Have a good one.
> >
> > -Evan
> >
> > Evan Bookbinder
> > Meteorologist
> > NWS Springfield, MO
> >
> >
> >
> Why did you even bother to write?  Sounds like you've already
> judged my project as impossible.  What good did your government
> agency the NOAA system for Orlando Florida in Spring 97?
> They did not have a warning system in place.  How many died?
> Do not think the private sector can not come up a practical and
> workable system.
>
> My design may not be perfect but it will not be so difficult as you
> seem to think.  Without going into detail for obvious reasons.  I have
> a serious design that will save lives.
>
> What I need to know is the barometric signature of a near miss to
> direct hit of a tornado.   If you can't or wont help me go back to
> you ivory tower on high.
>
> Robert Miller
>
> P.S.
> If I sound to harsh I'm sorry, but do you know how many times I've
> had a collage educated government employee tell me something can
> not be done?
>
> P.S.S.
> I also have a collage degree in electronics and digital circuits!  If I
> can't
> do something I'm smart enough to figure that out for myself.  Thank-you!

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Robert Miller wrote:
> 
> 
> Basically my idea is for a device that will detect the tornado, but since it
> can only
> detect one as close as the back yard it is next to useless for the home that
> has
> the detector.  So it broadcasts a signal to every other device within range.
> I
> believe I can get the production costs down to about $40.00 each maybe less.
> One detector in a city is useless.  So if I could seed a city with 1,000
> detectors,
> still rather sparse.  Every device purchased would increase the
> effectiveness of
> the network.
> 
Althought not an electronics engineer, it sounds like you have each
device inputting data from 999 OTHER devices and processing that data. 
I question if that data processing can be done for less than $100 per
device.

What type of RF would be involved, and how many people would be alarmed
at that much RF in their neighborhood.

But a more basic question is what type of data do you expect each of
these 1000 devices to gather, and how often (more data means more
processing).  Although there may be some common "signal" that could be
detected (by some sort of device), such a signal has NOT YET BEEN
DESCRIBED. I may be wrong, but I can't recall any computer program that
is able to model tornadogensis. Even pressure drops occur without
tornadogensis.

"S. Young" <shy9@earthlink.net> wrote in message
news:3B79F766.294@earthlink.net...
> Robert Miller wrote:
> >
> >
> > Basically my idea is for a device that will detect the tornado, but
since it
> > can only
> > detect one as close as the back yard it is next to useless for the home
that
> > has
> > the detector.  So it broadcasts a signal to every other device within
range.
> > I
> > believe I can get the production costs down to about $40.00 each maybe
less.
> > One detector in a city is useless.  So if I could seed a city with 1,000
> > detectors,
> > still rather sparse.  Every device purchased would increase the
> > effectiveness of
> > the network.
> >
> Althought not an electronics engineer, it sounds like you have each
> device inputting data from 999 OTHER devices and processing that data.
> I question if that data processing can be done for less than $100 per
> device.
>
> What type of RF would be involved, and how many people would be alarmed
> at that much RF in their neighborhood.
>
> But a more basic question is what type of data do you expect each of
> these 1000 devices to gather, and how often (more data means more
> processing).  Although there may be some common "signal" that could be
> detected (by some sort of device), such a signal has NOT YET BEEN
> DESCRIBED. I may be wrong, but I can't recall any computer program that
> is able to model tornadogensis. Even pressure drops occur without
> tornadogensis.

Micro-processors have dropped in price,  as well as digital signal
processors and
even communications chipsets.

Building a foolproof sensor is not practical,  anything can be fooled given
the right
circumstances.  Is a smoke detector foolproof? yet how many lives are saved
every
day by smoke detectors.  There are simple ways to increase the accuracy of
the
detector in given design constraints.

Robert Miller

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Robert,

Got your voice mail. Unfortunately I was not part of project VORTEX (although
I'm sure I would have certainly volunteered had I not been in high school at the
time) :) Regarding specific data or statistics from those studies, your best bet
is to either check publications such at Weather & Forecasting or the AMS
Bulletin (published by the American Meteorology Society)...or contact someone at
the Oklahoma University or the National Severe Storms Laboratory. I can think of
several key names, but I would certainly not volunteer anyone without their
permission )as they are quite busy with other research).

Again, to my knowledge, direct measurements of a tornado have never been taken,
although they've gotten pretty darn close. As you can tell, I'm still rather
skeptical from a meteorological standpoint...and it seems that your colleagues
are skeptical from an electronics and feasibility standpoint. While cost
effectiveness (feasibility) would certainly be a major hinderance, Mr. Young
also brings up a great point about RF. Have you thought about how are you going
to fund enough detectors just to TEST its plausability? (No one will pay for an
untested device). Also, where are you going to locate the sensors in an area
that's densely populated and likely to get hit by a tornado? You mention you're
from St. Looey. While it's certainly possible, I certainly wouldn't bet on St.
Louis seeing a tornado within reasonable time to test your detector. Heck, the
chance that ANY particular place gets hit by one, even in tornado alley, is
extremely low. You could potentially be waiting years with 6 figures invested,
only to find out that it doesn't work. Maybe I missed something, but how can you
field test a seemingly random event? I guess you may have to hire some storm
chase mesonet to do your work for you?
Just speculating.

-Evan

Robert Miller wrote:

> "S. Young" <shy9@earthlink.net> wrote in message
> news:3B79F766.294@earthlink.net...
> > Robert Miller wrote:
> > >
> > >
> > > Basically my idea is for a device that will detect the tornado, but
> since it
> > > can only
> > > detect one as close as the back yard it is next to useless for the home
> that
> > > has
> > > the detector.  So it broadcasts a signal to every other device within
> range.
> > > I
> > > believe I can get the production costs down to about $40.00 each maybe
> less.
> > > One detector in a city is useless.  So if I could seed a city with 1,000
> > > detectors,
> > > still rather sparse.  Every device purchased would increase the
> > > effectiveness of
> > > the network.
> > >
> > Althought not an electronics engineer, it sounds like you have each
> > device inputting data from 999 OTHER devices and processing that data.
> > I question if that data processing can be done for less than $100 per
> > device.
> >
> > What type of RF would be involved, and how many people would be alarmed
> > at that much RF in their neighborhood.
> >
> > But a more basic question is what type of data do you expect each of
> > these 1000 devices to gather, and how often (more data means more
> > processing).  Although there may be some common "signal" that could be
> > detected (by some sort of device), such a signal has NOT YET BEEN
> > DESCRIBED. I may be wrong, but I can't recall any computer program that
> > is able to model tornadogensis. Even pressure drops occur without
> > tornadogensis.
>
> Micro-processors have dropped in price,  as well as digital signal
> processors and
> even communications chipsets.
>
> Building a foolproof sensor is not practical,  anything can be fooled given
> the right
> circumstances.  Is a smoke detector foolproof? yet how many lives are saved
> every
> day by smoke detectors.  There are simple ways to increase the accuracy of
> the
> detector in given design constraints.
>
> Robert Miller

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