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Article #535Re: Nuke bootlegging etc.
From: David Krieger
Date: Tue, 31 Mar 1992 19:43
Date: Tue, 31 Mar 1992 19:43
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3378 bytes
So what's the problem? This is the free market in action! In fact, F.O. enthusiasts should consider making some discreet inquiries in the Eastern hemisphere... picking up a few of these babies at the Ukraine's next garage sale would definitely overturn my objections to the viability of Free Oceana. ;-) ;-) dk --Your message was: (from Peter Mentzel) The disintegration of the Soviet Empire has replaced fears of Superpower nuclear war with fears of the ICBMs falling into the hands of Hezbollah. While not wishing to downplay the possibility of a new kind of nuclear nightmare, I feel compelled to offer a couple of quick thoughts. First of all, only four ex-Soviet republics have ICBMs. These are the Russian Federation, Kazakhstan, Ukraine and Belorussia (oops, I mean "Belarus"). The Soviet strategic nuclear arsenal has always been under much more centralized control than the US one. In other words, the leaders of the various nuclear republics have little if any power over the missiles. As far as I know, the launch codes, etc. are all still under the watchful eyes of the Red Army (hardly a nice thought in itself, I realize). Secondly, the transportation and manipulation of warheads, or even tactical nuclear weapons (e.g. nuclear artillery shells) is very tricky business, demanding skill s which are not readily available to most garden- variety t errorists. Thus, even if the missing warheads really do fall into the hands of some vile hate group (take your pick) the group may not be able to do much with it because of not having the various codes needed to fire the device. Any attempt to extract the nuclear core from the device is loaded with all sorts of other hazards which, while not insurmountable, make a successful dismantling very difficult. Again, the above is not in meant to minimize the very real concern which (rightfully) surrounds the ex-Soviet nuclear arsenal. However, I think that there is good evidence to suggest that the threat of bootlegged nukes may not be as great as is sometimes supposed. Most of my information on this subject has come from two very good issues of -The Economist- (March 14) and March 21st. I highly recommend these articles. TANSTAAFL! Peter ------------------
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From: David Krieger <dkrieger%monty@RAND.ORG>
Subject: Re: Nuke bootlegging etc.
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