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Article #535

Re: Nuke bootlegging etc.

#535
From: David Krieger
Date: Tue, 31 Mar 1992 19:43
46 lines
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So what's the problem?  This is the free market in action!  In
fact, F.O. enthusiasts should consider making some discreet
inquiries in the Eastern hemisphere... picking up a few of these
babies at the Ukraine's next garage sale would definitely
overturn my objections to the viability of Free Oceana. ;-) ;-)
					dk

--Your message was: (from Peter Mentzel)

  The disintegration of the Soviet Empire has replaced fears of Superpower
  nuclear war with fears of the ICBMs falling into the hands of Hezbollah.
  While not wishing to downplay the possibility of a new kind of nuclear
  nightmare, I feel compelled to offer a couple of quick thoughts.

  First of all, only four ex-Soviet republics have ICBMs.  These are the
  Russian Federation, Kazakhstan, Ukraine and Belorussia (oops, I mean
  "Belarus").  The Soviet strategic nuclear arsenal has always been under
  much more centralized control than the US one.  In other words, the leaders
  of the various nuclear republics have little if any power over the missiles.
  As far as I know, the launch codes, etc. are all still under the watchful
  eyes of the Red Army (hardly a nice thought in itself, I realize).

  Secondly, the transportation and manipulation of warheads, or even tactical
  nuclear weapons (e.g. nuclear artillery shells) is very tricky business,
  demanding skill s which are not readily available  to most garden-
  variety t  errorists.

  Thus, even if the missing warheads really do fall into the hands of some
  vile hate group (take your pick) the group may not be able to do much
  with it because of not having the various codes needed to fire the device.
  Any attempt to extract the nuclear core from the device is loaded with
  all sorts of other hazards which, while not insurmountable, make a
  successful dismantling very difficult.

  Again, the above is not in meant to minimize the very real concern which
  (rightfully) surrounds the ex-Soviet nuclear arsenal.  However, I think
  that there is good evidence to suggest that the threat of bootlegged nukes
  may not be as great as is sometimes supposed.  Most of my information on
  this subject has come from two very good issues of -The Economist- (March 14)
  and March 21st.  I highly recommend these articles.

  TANSTAAFL!

  Peter

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Date:         Tue, 31 Mar 1992 11:43:52 PST
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From:         David Krieger <dkrieger%monty@RAND.ORG>
Subject:      Re: Nuke bootlegging etc.
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