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"The illiterate of the 21st century will not be those who cannot read
or write; they will be those who cannot learn, unlearn, and re-learn"
- Alain Tofle

Subscriptions to mobile telephones exceeded the number of fixed
telephones globally in 2002, according to the International
Telecommunications Union (ITU). In developing countries without
sufficient fixed telephone infrastructure, wireless growth has been
explosive, with mobile phones becoming the first and only telephones
for the majority of new subscribers. Africa was the first continent to
have more mobile lines than fixed and, with a mobile growth rate of
77.9%, is the fastest growing in the World.  In reality, Africa is a
world leader when it comes to mobile communications.

Until recently, Africa ranked least using any parameter of growth.
Inadequate supply of fixed lines often gave the West the false
impression that there was no demand for mobile communications in
Africa. Some even suggested that telephone affordability was
non-existent on the Continent.

However, mobile telephony is putting Africa in positive light. 84.8%
of all mobile lines in Africa are digital, far greater than all other
Continents, except Asia (90.1%). When you consider that the same
figure for Europe is 59.4%, Americas 56.5%, Oceania 83.7%, then you
will appreciate the import of the African mobile explosion.

The primary factor responsible for the phenomenal take-up of mobile
lines in Africa is the failure of government-owned public telephone
utilities throughout the Continent to satisfy the huge demand for
communications by the vast generality of the people. Nearly all the
National Telephone Carriers have failed to deliver telephone service
cheaply and efficiently.

The take-up of GSM phones in many African countries has demonstrated,
beyond reasonable doubt, that there is significant pent-up demand for
communications services, even among relatively low income users.

Other drivers of growth are the increasing adoption of the policy of
market liberalization by African governments leading to the licensing
of aggressive private companies who are competing among each other to
make mobile services increasingly affordable. These companies are
essentially African in equity, character and operations. Without a
doubt, competition is a major driver of the mobile explosion.

With prepaid, mobile has become even more affordable as users are able
to control their telephone expenditure without undergoing credit
checks or being tied to long term contracts. The use of mobiles now
cuts across all social classes.

From a mere 646,500 mobile lines in 1995, Africa now has in excess of
36 million mobile subscribers. With cumulative annual growth rate
averaging 77% since 1995, no other segment of the economy is growing
as rapidly.

Several African countries now have double-digit mobile penetration of
the population, far above the finest predictions of most analysts.
Countries with double-digit mobile penetration include Seychelles
(53%), South Africa (30%), Botswana (24%), Gabon (21%), and Morocco
(20%).  Other countries with extremely rapid growth and acceptance of
mobile technology with subscriptions in excess of 1 million include
Nigeria, Cote D'Ivoire, Kenya, Ghana, and Egypt. Even war-torn Sudan
still manages to have nearly 200,000 mobile users despite the ravaging
civil war in that country. Africa is becoming a shining example of how
mobile communications is changing lives worldwide.

There are several implications of the mobile revolution. I shall zero
in on just two.

Africa may be the first continent with pervasive mobile Internet

The only constraint to this happening now is two-fold. First is the
limitation of GSM technology. GSM support for broadband Internet
technologies, a key requirement to productive Internet access, is
evolving at the moment. There is no clear-cut, globally acceptable
single means of assessing the Internet via a mobile device on a GSM
network. Whether it is WAP, GPRS, EDGE, or ETC (!), GSM support for
the Internet is extremely weak. This is why bypass technologies such
as Wi-Fi, and Wi-Max are in strong demand.

The second reason is the poor usability of mobile phones as Internet
access devices. But this problem would be solved and the Internet will
soon merge with, and converge into, mobile devices. When that happens,
the digital revolution in Africa would be even more explosive. Think
of it again. The day you can conveniently use your regular mobile
phone (and I'm not talking of expensive esoteric models as the
Communicator) to send emails to your loved ones in the village and
browse for current prices of cement (for instance), that day your need
for the services of a place to browse would diminish! The place to
browse would be right in your hands! And that day is not too
far-fetched.




The most innovative uses of mobile technology will come out of Africa

With minimal fixed line infrastructure, and virtually no backbone for
Internet traffic, African mobile operators will (and cannot afford not
to) come up with solutions and applications that are novel to the
West. These new mobile technology solutions (and derivatives) will
enable companies doing business in Africa to inter-act seamlessly with
their workforce using any platform or device. Mobile will ensure that
Africans are able to connect with each other anytime, anyhow and using
any device. GSM networks will be pushed to operational limits and
driven far in excess of intrinsic abilities as Africans derive new and
unique methods of staying connected.

So how can the Rest of the World catch up with the West?

Simply by replicating the lessons learnt from the Mobile Miracle in
all sectors of their economies. These lessons include:

�	Opening up of the economy to full participation by local and
international private companies.
�	Elimination of monopolies and their abuse of market dominance.
�	Minimal, but transparent, regulatory intervention.
�	Locating and satisfying the demand for services by the populace.
�	Encouraging the use of open standards, protocols and technologies.
�	Protecting the consumer from ill-treatment by operators.
�	Reducing rural-urban migration by encouraging geographical spread of
services.
�	Removing bureaucratic bottlenecks relating to trade and imports.
�	Making technology a "front burner" issue.

African countries can catch up with the West, maybe not as producers
of technology, but definitely as distributors and consumers of the
most innovative technology solutions. Africa can utilize the power of
the Last Mover Advantage to leapfrog and reach the heights already
attained and taken for granted by developed economies.

It appears that the sun has begun to shine on Africa. 

Yes, the continent missed the agrarian revolution. Yes, she missed the
industrial revolution. But she earnestly longs not to miss the
information revolution. Would you help her?


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Fola Odufuwa is Executive Director, eShekels Limited, Nigeria's
premier technology research firm based in Lagos, Nigeria. Email:
fola.odufuwa@eshekelsnigeria.com