🚀 go-pugleaf

"John Beardmore" <wookie@wookie.demon.co.uk> wrote in message
news:u1MLBoF3b0+$EwSh@wookie.demon.co.uk...
> In article <3ffa1d92_1@newspeer2.tds.net>, Don Libby
> >  Scale matters.
>
> So does ultimate destination.

Ultimate destination is extinction.  It is just a matter of time.  Relevant
time scale for species' extinction: 4 Million years on average, 4 Billion,
max.

> >Today's Easter Island lesson learned: don't put all your Easter eggs in
one
> >Easter basket.
>
> I see you don't refer to
>
>      http://www.apj.co.uk/rapanui/display_article.asp?specifier=history
>
> which includes a section reading
>
>      "64 square miles with a carrying capacity of 2000 persons,
>      about one-tenth of what is considered to be its peak
>      population".

Carrying capacity depends on technology and organization.  Again, here's how
scientists see it:
ECONOMIC-GROWTH, CARRYING-CAPACITY, AND THE ENVIRONMENT

   ARROW K, BOLIN B, COSTANZA R, DASGUPTA P, FOLKE C, HOLLING CS,

   JANSSON BO, LEVIN S, MALER KG, PERRINGS C, PIMENTEL D

   SCIENCE

   268: (5210) 520-521 APR 28 1995



               "A single number for human carrying capacity would be
meaningless because the consequences of both human innovation and biological
evolution are inherently unknowable"...  "A more useful index of
environmental sustainability is ecosystem resilience"...

>
>
> Keep in mind that if you are at ten times your carrying capacity, you
> need to do a lot of trade to survive, and that 'lot of trade' has a lot
> of overheads including environmental demands.
<...>
Keep in mind that the polynesians linked in trade did at least enough trade
to sustain their populations longer than the isolated Easter Island
population.  The trading culture was more sustainable because trade enhanced
their resilience to local supply shocks.

Today's Easter Island lesson learned:  supply shocks bad, resilience good.

> Also keep in mind, that while big, the earth has a finite carrying
> capacity too.

Estimated at 10^12, which is a single number, and meaningless.  A more
useful index of environmental sustainability is ecosystem resilience.  It's
been almost a decade since scientists published that consensus statement.

Come on, time's a wastin', let's get with the program!

-dl