🚀 go-pugleaf

Richard Ottolini (stgprao@st.unocal.COM) wrote:

> In article <2uvurf$t6m@agate.berkeley.edu>,
>   Gregory Brian Pasternack <gpast@uclink.berkeley.edu> wrote:
>     >Ed Evans (ed.evans@kandy.com) wrote:
>     >
>     >> Anyone have anything on the latest prophesy regarding amounts of 
         oil remaining?
>   >
>   >Regardless of the amount of oil we may or may not have, we stand to 
>   >suffocate on CO2 if we burn off all of our reserves of fossil fuels.  
>   >Even if that extreme is safely avoided (which shouldn't be too hard, 
>   >eh?), there is still the question of the impact of our oil 
>   >consumption on : >global change...

> DO check your arithmetic.  See "the Geochemical Carbon Cycle" in 1989
> Scientific American for some numbers.  Burning all the fossil would
> increase the current amount of CO2 several times, but not to the
> point of suffocation.  Could change the climate, however.

Regarding the quantity of CO2 required to induce human trauma:

   1) The present atmospheric concentration of CO2 is ~350 ppm = 0.035%.
      - M.G. Gross, 1990, _Oceanography-a view of the Earth_

   2) "Inhalation of air mixed with only 10% CO2 leads to coma and dead 
       in about 10 to 15 minutes."
       - Haraldur Sigurdsson, Aug 1987, Natural History, p.46.

   Hence rapid death would require a 286x increase in atm .CO2.

   3) "At a level of 5% in the atmosphere, CO2 causes loss of 
       consciousness but not death." Survivors have skin lesions, burns, 
       pulmonary edema, respiratory distress, hallucinations, etc 
       according to this report.
       - EOS, June 9, 1987, v. 68, no. 23, p. 570 (pub. of AGU)

   Hence serious illness and painful debilitation would require a 143x 
   increase in atm. CO2.

   4) According to J.P. Severinghaus, W.S.Broecker (one of the world's 
      leading geochemists), et al. (Eos, Jan. 18, 1994, p. 33-36) a 
      concentration of 2000-4000 ppm CO2 (= 0.2-0.4% CO2) and the 
      corresponding decrease of O2 caused enough illness in the   
      Biosphere 2 project participants that the organizers were forced to 
      add air twice and PURE O2 one time to avoid the risk of serious 
      injury.  Thus an atmospheric conc. as low as 0.2% can cause 
      discomfort in highly trained athletic "bionauts" (let alone 
      asthmatics and the elderly!).

   Hence continuous discomfort for all inhabitants of the planet would 
   require only a 5.7x (!!!) increasse in atm. CO2.

   Richard Ottolini wrote "Burning all the fossil would increase the 
   current amount of CO2 several times." so he therefore concedes 
   (based on the scientifically reported numbers above) that we 
   are all going to suffer physical discomfort from our fossil fuel 
   consumption.

Now the ONLY question that remains is HOW MUCH ARE WE GOING TO SUFFER? To 
calculate this ourselves, right here on the net, all we need to know is 
the total quantity of HC in our known reserves.  A breakdown by 
compound would be easier, but we can make some simplifying conservative 
assumptions if we have to (e.g. assume  C-18-H-38 or something like that.

In any case, the fact does remain that we stand to suffer DIRECT 
physiological hazard as a result of our CO2 emmission/O2 consumption.

If someone can supply these numbers and FULL citations (not just name and 
year!), I will gladly show all calculations and we can see what the 
truth is for ourselves...

--
Greg Pasternack              | Because each and every reality needs
Environmental Scientist      | a regular tune up.
gpast@uclink.berkeley.edu