🚀 go-pugleaf

In article <1992Feb17.232631.28734@odin.corp.sgi.com> fred_s@sgi.com (Fred Scott) writes:
>
>Well, I don't really want to get involved in this (particular) flame war,
>but I will say this much: I lived in Minnesota for 9 years and observed that
>when the weather forecasters there predicted 20-30 % chance of rain, it rained
>at some point (measurable) >50% of the time.  When they predicted 50% or
>greater, it rained at least 95% of the time.  Never having heard an authorita-
>tive explanation of what they meant, such as you offer, I had come to the
>conclusion that they must have meant an X% chance of rain meant that I would
>find it raining X% of the time, that day.  
   
       And like most conclusions arrived at by the lay public in
       areas where common sense is challenged by some pretty
       ferocious physics, you were close, but no cigar.

       A 70% chance of weather of any type means that the ODDS are
       70% that you will experience that weather within the forecast
       area within the forecast period.  

       And when dealing with weather, cautions against treating
       highly local phenomena as widespread can't be overemphasized.

       A 70% chance of rain SHOWERS is a 100% bet that even if some
       areas get showers, many others won't......which is what the
       word SHOWERS means.   


>
>If you're right about the explanation of what the percentage means, I sure
>wish someone would open a bookie joint and allow me to bet on the odds the
>forecasters give for rain - I could retire on the winnings.  :-)
>
      Hmmmmmmmm.    Just as a stupid question, does anyone know if
      Reno or Vegas offers odds on specific forecasts?

********************************************************************
Disclaimer:  I USED to be a missile meteorologist at White Sands
	     Missile Range.  We used the % back then to give mission
	     planners a better idea of go-nogo decisions...whether
	     it was worth waiting during the count or whether you
	     might as well scrub.