Re: Rain

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Article #22471

#22471

From: Lee Mellinger
Date: Fri, 21 Feb 1992 17:57

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In article <kq8vjlINNb4j@agate.berkeley.edu> jbuck@forney.berkeley.edu (Joe Buck) writes:
:In article <1992Feb14.015812.3941@bagdad.uucp> jas@bagdad.uucp (Jim Smith) writes:
:>When I attended a seminar given by Dr. George Fishbeck, a local LA weatherman,
:>he explained that a 70% percent chance of rain meant that there was a 100%
:>gotta be a little silly to try to predict the weather in the first place 8-).
:
:Hmm.  Seems having "Ph.D." after your name is no prevention from uttering
:idiocy.  If his statement were true, then no meteorologist would ever call
:for 70% chance of rain, or any other chance, since any such statement would
:be an exact declaration that an exact fraction of an area would get rain.
:him.
A
This precisely what I heard the Chief Forcaster at the Los Angeles
office of the National Weather Service say in explanation of the how
the percentage is determined and what it means.

Lee

"Mit Pulver und Blei, die Gedanken sind frei."

|Lee F. Mellinger                 Caltech/Jet Propulsion Laboratory - NASA
|4800 Oak Grove Drive, Pasadena, CA 91109 818/354-1163  FTS 792-1163     
|leem@jpl-devvax.JPL.NASA.GOV

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<3635@cod.NOSC.MIL> <kpis7tINN24m@agate.berkeley.edu> <1992Feb14.015812.3941@bagdad.uucp> <kq8vjlINNb4j@agate.berkeley.edu>

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Path: arc1-ca.pugleaf.net!sparky!uunet!elroy.jpl.nasa.gov!jpl-devvax!leem
From: leem@jpl-devvax.jpl.nasa.gov (Lee Mellinger)
Subject: Re: Rain
Message-ID: <1992Feb21.175712.7884@jpl-devvax.jpl.nasa.gov>
Reply-To: leem@jpl-devvax.JPL.NASA.GOV (Lee Mellinger)
Organization: Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, CA
References: <3635@cod.NOSC.MIL> <kpis7tINN24m@agate.berkeley.edu> <1992Feb14.015812.3941@bagdad.uucp> <kq8vjlINNb4j@agate.berkeley.edu>
Distribution: ca
Date: Fri, 21 Feb 1992 17:57:12 GMT

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