🚀 go-pugleaf

Lawrence Day wrote:

> The expected coup came yesterday.

  It was anticipated, as one possible disastrous outcome if Chavez
didn't quit wrecking the country.  It was not expected, merely
anticipated.

> Hugo Chavez was arrested.
> Of course they claim he resigned. 

  He probably did resign.  Of course, he was "encouraged" to do so.

  Should we pity poor Hugo Chavez, or his "Bolivarian Revolution"
supporters?

  Ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha,
ha.


  From CBS Market Watch -- the reactions begin

...
 
CARACAS, Venezuela (AP) _ President Hugo Chavez, the former army
paratrooper who vowed to dismantle a corrupt democracy and improve the
lot of Venezuela's poor, resigned under military pressure Friday after
a massive opposition demonstration against his government ended in a
bloodbath.
 
Chavez, 47, presented his resignation to three officers after he was
confronted by the military high command, said the Air Force chief,
Gen. Regulo Anselmi. He was being held at an army base while
investigators decide what charges he could face for Thursday's
violence, in which 13 people died.

Thousands of Chavez opponents celebrated overnight, waving flags,
blowing whistles and jamming a main highway in Caracas.

Pedro Carmona, head of Venezuela's largest business association,
announced he would head a transitional government to be installed
later Friday. He also announced an immediate end to a general strike
called earlier this week against Chavez.

Business and workers groups called the strike to support executives
within the state oil company, who were protesting Chavez's
appointments to top company posts. The oil strike had sharply cut
vital production in the world's fourth-largest oil exporter.

...
CARACAS (CBS.MW) - The ouster of Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez
under military pressure Friday will likely lead to renewed oil exports
and improvements in other businesses, analysts said.

Chavez resigned Friday after an anti-government protest turned
violent, leading to several deaths. See full story.

A national strike, called in opposition to Chavez's appointments to
the state owned oil company, Petroleos de Venezuela, had crippled oil
exports from the country. Venezuela normally supplies about 13 percent
of U.S. imports and is the world's fourth largest exporter.

Pedro Carmona, head of Venezuela's largest business association, will
head a transitional government. He called an immediate end to the
strike.
 
The price of crude fell 6 percent on the news. Crude for June delivery
closed down $1.52 at $23.47 a barrel on the New York Mercantile
Exchange. See Futures Movers.

Chavez was elected president of Venezuela in 1998. That same year,
OPEC began implementing a series of output restrictions that were
ultimately credited with ending the "oil glut" that saw prices spiral
downwards in 1998-1999.

Venezuela had previously had a poor history of compliance with OPEC,
but under the Chavez administration, the country increasingly aligned
itself with the cartel's policies.

Chavez was also considered by many to be anti-American and had
recently installed a number of what were widely considered his
political cronies at the oil company.

"Politically, this was bound to happen. I think Chavez was losing
ground not only internationally but within his own constituency," said
Mattie Lolavar, president of international business communications and
strategies firm Triumph Communications Group and former consultant to
the government of Argentina.

"Knowing the situation in Middle East and looking at Iraq," said
Lolavar, "I think the U.S. will do everything possible to help
Venezuela, if need be." One possibility would be helping state-owned
oil companies become privatized.

U.S.-traded shares of Venezuela's largest telephone company CANTV
(VNT: news, chart, profile) soared 25 percent in late afternoon
trading in New York.

Oil exports from Venezuela to the U.S. are expected to resume normally
within a week, according to Petroleos de Venezuela.

Big contributor

Venezuelan exports to the U.S. peaked in 1997 at about 1.8 million
barrels a day, but despite a spike in U.S. petroleum imports of about
1.5 million barrels a day, daily imports from Venezuela have fallen by
about 235,000 barrels, according to the U.S. Department of Energy. In
2001, imports from the country accounted for about 13 percent of total
U.S. imports.

"This is going to refocus the verticalization of trade toward Latin
America, especially in oil and energy," said Lolavar. She noted that
the region is still considered to be one of the most technologically
sophisticated in term of oil production and exploration.

As to the potential effect the situation will have on U.S. imports
"The key question is whether or not the refineries are indeed shut
down, because if they are, it takes between 4 and 8 weeks to restart
them," said Benito Berber Latin American analyst at IDEAglobal. "But
PDVSA is saying that the shipments should be back on track within a
week."

Alan Struth, president of energy consulting firm Energy Insights, said
he has seen reports indicating that between 70 and 90 percent of
production has been disrupted.

"It's surprising to me that the price of oil had fallen as sharply as
it did," he said. "The market hasn't seemed too concerned; it's been
much more focused on what's going on in the Middle East. But we'll see
how that changes."

Enriquez Hidalgo-Noreiga, senior associate EG Americas Group, agreed.
"The problem with Iraq is not going away; the Israeli-Palestinian
conflict isn't going away soon, either. But the conflict at PDVSA is
unlikely to continue," he said "To a certain extent, the markets may
internalize this, saying, OK, of the three fires we have going, one of
them may be put out."

He noted that Guaicaieuro Lameda will be in the new interim
government. "He is a retired general and he headed up PDVSA before the
crisis brought Chavez down," Hidalgo-Noreiga said. "Chavez fired him,
and the guy Chavez installed instead of Lameda was the main reason
PDVSA went on strike."

Venezuela is said to have an estimated 15-20 million barrels of oil in
storage. PDVSA began storing oil in April 2001, to help the country
meet its OPEC production quota reductions.

One of the questions still to be answered is whether or not Venezuela
will start producing above its OPEC quota. "They might like to do
that," said Berber, "they might like to get as many dollars as they
can to help the fiscal accounts. My guess is that they might not be
willing to respect their quota."

Hidalgo-Noreiga said it's too soon to tell. Lameda is well-respected
by all sectors in the country, he said, and "It looks like Venezuela
will shoot for a fair price of oil and not be the price hog we've
seen."

But a top executive at PDVSA on Friday expressed criticism of the OPEC
quotas, according to Dow Jones. "We recommend that we reanalyze its
alliance with and participation within OPEC ... we've always been the
useful, dumb ones within OPEC," said Edgar Paredes.

Ratings worries

Rating agency Standard & Poor's today affirmed the Bolivarian Republic
of Venezuela's single-'B' long- and short-term foreign currency
sovereign ratings and affirmed the country's negative outlook
following Chavez's resignation.

"With the weakening of public institutions and governance problems
that took place during the Chavez Administration, it remains to be
seen whether the transitional government will have the political clout
to take the necessary stabilization and structural reform measures
needed to reactivate the economy and improve dire social conditions
affecting 80% of the 25 million Venezuelans," said credit analyst
Graciana del Castillo of S&P.

"I don't know if the crisis is truly over," agreed Alan Struth. "I
don't think we're out of the woods yet."

Carolyn Pritchard is a reporter for CBS.MarketWatch.com in San
Francisco

...

NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- Venezuelan stocks soared Friday after Hugo Chavez
resigned as president of the country following large-scale riots that
left 13 dead.
 
The country's IBC index jumped 10 percent by early afternoon trade,
lifting sentiment in the region.

On the New York Stock Exchange, the two largest percentage gainers
were Venezuela's largest telephone company CANTV (VNT: news, chart,
profile) and paint-maker Corimon.

CANTV soared 20 percent after Merrill Lynch upped its recommendation
on Venezuelan equity exposure to "slight overweight" from "no
exposure," and added the stock.

The other big gainer was Corimon (CRM: news, chart, profile), which
rocketed 25 percent.

Standard & Poor's affirmed Venezuela's single-'B' long- and short-term
foreign currency sovereign ratings and affirmed the country's negative
outlook following Chavez's ouster.

Other Latin American markets were higher as well. Argentina's Merval
was up 1.4 percent, while Brazil's Bovespa gained 1.5 percent.

Allen Wan is a news editor for CBS.MarketWatch.com in New York.

...

  And what happened?

...

New Venezuelan leader promises elections after Chavez forced out by
military

By Jorge Rueda, Associated Press, 4/12/2002 14:55


CARACAS, Venezuela (AP) The man tapped by Venezuela's military to
replace Hugo Chavez on Friday promised new elections within a year,
and the imprisoned former president faced possible charges after the
bloody repression of an opposition march.

Hours after a tumultuous night that ended with Chavez being taken from
the presidential palace to detention in an army base, businessman
Pedro Carmona announced he would lead a junta with military backing
that will call legislative elections and then presidential elections
within a year.

Carmona quickly called an end to an anti-Chavez strike that had slowed
down oil production by Venezuela the third biggest supplier to the
United States. Oil prices in London dipped in expectation of an
increase in output by the world's fourth largest exporter.

The military said Chavez, 47, resigned when top commanders confronted
him at the presidential palace overnight, just hours after civilian
Chavez supporters opened fire on a 150,0000-strong opposition
demonstration in downtown Caracas. At least 14 people were killed and
250 wounded.

But some Chavez allies, including his daughter and his attorney
general, Isaias Rodriguez, denied Chavez had resigned and accused the
military of mounting a coup.

Police warned Friday that ''Chavistas'' supporters of the president
were distributing weapons, especially in the hillside slums
surrounding the capital. Officers raided storehouses, seizing dozens
of firearms.

Security forces searched for members of Chavez's Cabinet and arrested
ex-Interior Minister Ramon Rodriguez Chacin. Civilians tried to attack
Chacin as he was led from a building by police officers.

The United States called for calm and blamed Chavez for his own
ouster. President Bush ''now that the situation will be one of
tranquility and democracy,'' White House spokesman Ari Fleischer said.
The State Department said ''undemocratic actions committed or
encouraged by the Chavez administration provoked yesterday's crisis.''

Chavez came to power three years ago with widespread support,
particularly among the poor, promising a ''revolution'' against
corruption and poverty. But opposition had been building for some
time.

His one-time 80 percent popularity ratings plunge to below 30 percent
this year as he repeatedly accused business leaders, labor, the news
media and even Roman Catholic Church leaders of conspiring to
overthrow him.

The armed forces which has traditionally strong ties to the U.S.
military resented Chavez's distancing of Venezuela from Washington.
Many also disliked Chavez's ties with leftist Colombian guerrillas and
with Fidel Castro's Cuba: Many senior officers had fought Cuban-backed
communist guerrillas in the 1960s and early 1970s.

Chavez had irritated Washington with his close ties to Castro, visits
to Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein and to Libya, and criticism of U.S.
bombings in Afghanistan.

Critics accused his government of secretly arming neighborhood block
committees known as ''Bolivarian Circles,'' named after South American
liberator Simon Bolivar, to protect his revolution.

With Chavez's ouster, jubilant executives at Venezuela's state oil
monopoly promised to bring production up to speed as quickly as
possible. The executives had been leading a work slowdown to protest
Chavez's appointment of a new board to the company.

When the business association Fedecamaras, headed by Carmona, and the
1 million-member Venezuelan Workers Confederation called a strike this
week in sympathy with the executives, the crisis spiralled,
culminating in Thursday night's protest.

On Friday, Chavez was being held at Caracas' Fort Tiuna army base
while investigators decide what charges he could face for the
violence, said army commander Gen. Efrain Vasquez Velasco. Chavez
asked to be allowed to go into exile in Cuba, but the miltiary turned
him down, army Gen. Roman Fuemayor told Globovision television. ''He
has to be held accountable to his country,'' Fuemayor said.

Cuba, whose leader Castro is a personal friend of Chavez, denounced
the Venezuelan's overthrow, with the Communist Party daily Granma
saying it was the result of a ''conspiracy'' by the country's wealthy
classes, corrupt politicians and news media.

Chavez's daughter, Maria Gabriela Chavez, told Cuba's state-run
television that her father had contacted her and asked her to tell
''the whole world ... that I am an imprisoned president and at no
moment did I resign.'' His arrest was ''simply a coup,'' she said.

In downtown Caracas, streets were littered with debris and in some
places, stained with blood. After a night when thousands went out and
celebrated, shops and businesses remained closed, and most people
simply stayed home, stunned and wondering what would come next. Buses
were half-empty, and those reporting to work hurried amid
rubble-strewn sidewalks.

Carmona said one of his first acts as interim president would be to
reinstate several military officers sacked in recent months for
criticizing Chavez. He promised to revise Chavez-era economic laws
that were opposed by the private sector.

''Everyone will feel that there exists plenty of freedom, pluralism
and respect for the state of law, for values, and ethical and moral
principles,'' Carmona said.

Carlos Ortega, head of the Venezuelan Workers Confederation, which
also called the strikes, said the interim government must
''immediately resolve the problems facing workers,'' including unpaid
salary increases and some $21 billion in back wages and pensions.

The rapid developments stunned this oil-rich, yet poverty-stricken
nation.

Military commanders said Chavez ordered the National Guard and his
armed supporters to stop the crowd of some 150,000 demonstrators from
reaching his palace Thursday.

National Guard troops fired tear gas at the front ranks of marchers
bearing sticks and throwing rocks. Rooftop snipers and Chavez
supporters repeatedly fired upon the protesters and even ambulance
crews trying to evacuate the wounded.

Chavez had boasted only days ago that he would remain president until
2021. He refused to negotiate with the striking oil executives, who
accused Chavez of trying to impose his grip on the autonomous company.

The executives' slowdown cut production at the Paraguana refinery
complex, one of the world's largest, to below 50 percent capacity.
They closed another refinery and all but stopped loading of oil
tankers. Oil generates 80 percent of Venezuela's foreign earnings.

The Air Force chief, Gen. Regulo Anselmi, said the military urged
Chavez on Wednesday to negotiate. He agreed, but by then the oil
executives had rejected such overtures.

After Thursday's violence, the high command decided Chavez had to go,
and they confronted him in his offices, Anselmi said. Troops seized
the government television station as tanks rumbled on the streets.

Chavez finally handed his resignation to Anselmi and two generals. 

''We ask the Venezuelan people's forgiveness for today's events,''
said Vasquez Velasco, the army commander. ''Mr. President, I was loyal
to the end, but today's deaths cannot be tolerated.''

...

  May socialism and worse stay away from Venezuela for a change!


  Dave Simpson