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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1207 PM CST TUE FEB 26 2013

DISCUSSION...
1200 PM CST

THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HEADLINE AND OVERALL FORECAST TRENDS
LOOK GENERALLY ON TRACK. THERE IS CONCERN THAT PRECIPITATION
INTENSITY MAY WANE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ALONG
AND SOUTH OF I-88. THIS COULD CUT DOWN ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS QUITE A
BIT IN SOME AREAS FOR THAT TIME...BUT OVERALL TOTALS MAY STILL BE
WITHIN THE FORECAST RANGES DEPENDING ON ACCUMULATION THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON. FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO PRECIPITATION
TYPE...SLOWING THE TRANSITION TO RAIN IN THE SOUTHEAST...AND
ADJUSTING THE HEAVY SNOW WORDING. GENERALLY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS HAVE
NOT BEEN CHANGED BUT MAY END UP NEEDING TO BE LOWERED FOR SOME AREAS
WITH LIMITED DURATION OF OVERALL HEAVY SNOWFALL.

SATELLITE CHANNELS SHOW THE VIGOROUS STACKED LOW ENTERING FAR
SOUTHERN IL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. IMPRESSIVE FORCING AND FOCUSED
DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF THIS HAS HELPED THE MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND
PRECIPITATION SPREAD NORTHWARD. EMBEDDED HEAVIER AREAS OF
PRECIPITATION HAVE BEEN SEEN...AIDED BY MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
LIKELY FRONTOGENESIS UNDER A MARKED UNSTABLE LAYER ALOFT. THIS HEAVY
SNOW INCLUDES NEAR THE LEADING EDGE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND
NORTH METRO WHERE HALF MILE HEAVY SNOW AND QUICK ACCUMULATIONS HAVE
BEEN REPORTED VARIOUS REPORTING MEANS. WITH THE MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION ALONG WITH WINDS HAVING TURNED NORTHEAST...THE
TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED SEVERAL DEGREES IN PLACES...WITH READINGS
MAINLY 32 TO 34 UNDER THE PRECIP CANOPY.

AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS FROM MDW AND ORD ALONG WITH THE LOCAL ARW MODEL
ANALYSIS INDICATE THE DYNAMIC COOLING IS OFFSETTING THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION FOR MUCH OF OUR AREA...AND SNOW AND SLEET SHOULD BE THE
PRIMARY PRECIPITATION TYPE NORTH OF I-80 THROUGH
MID-AFTERNOON...WHICH AGREES WITH GOING FORECAST. POCKETS OF HEAVIER
SNOW INCLUDING WITH LARGE FLAKES GIVEN THE OMEGA IN THE DGZ ARE
LIKELY AND HAVE BEEN REPORTED. SHORT TERM WRFS/ARWS PROVIDE HIGH DBZ
THROUGH 21Z WHICH SUPPORTS QUICK ACCUMULATIONS OCCURRING...AND HAVE
ADDED HEAVY SNOW WORDING EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
THESE CORRIDORS OF HEAVIER SNOW ARE SOMEWHAT TRANSITORY THOUGH AND
WHILE SOME RAPID ACCUMULATIONS HAVE COME IN /HALF INCH IN UNDER A
HALF HOUR AT A HANDFUL OF PLACES/...LONG DURATION OF THIS HAS NOT
BEEN SEEN THUS FAR.

AS CAN BE THE CASE WITH A MASSIVE OCCLUDING SYSTEM...A CORRIDOR OF
DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR /NOT A TRUE DRY SLOT/ IS PROJECTED TO WORK NORTH
INTO THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON BY BOTH THE RAP
AND NAM MODELS. THIS CORRELATES WITH WARMER CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES
ON IR AND MORE SHOWERY PRECIP ON THE RADAR MOSAIC. PRECIPITATION
MODE MAY TRANSITION TO MORE OF A LIGHT SNOW/DRIZZLE WITH EMBEDDED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA OR EVEN MUCH OF THE AREA
BY EARLY EVE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY FLATLINE SO COOL ENOUGH
TO CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ACCUMULATION WHERE IT IS SNOWING...BUT THE
AREAS OF GREATEST CONVERGENCE AND SATURATION LOOK TO HAVE MOVED TO
THE FAR NORTHERN AND WESTERN FORECAST AREA. SO THE WIDESPREAD GREATER
EVENING ACCUMULATIONS AND BETTER CHANCES FOR HEAVIER SNOWFALL
RATES DURING THE 5-9 PM WINDOW MAY BE CONFINED TO THOSE AREAS.

AT LEAST SOME AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
AND INTO/OR REDEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. THIS
WILL BE FURTHER ASSESSED THIS AFTERNOON.

MTF

&&

PREV DISCUSSION...
330 AM CST

SHORT TERM (THROUGH TONIGHT)...

WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THINKING OR THE FORECAST REALLY FROM THE
AFTERNOON PACKAGE...SUPPOSE THAT IS ONE OF THE ADVANTAGES TO
FOLLOWING YOURSELF ON THE FORECAST DESK! :)

VIGOROUS MID LATITUDE CYCLONES IS LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO THE
TENNESSEE AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH AN WHAT CAN ONLY BE
DESCRIBED AS A GORGEOUS SATELLITE PRESENTATION EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH REMNANTS OF EARLIER SEVERE CONVECTION MOVING EAST ACROSS THE
DIXIE STATES...AND WARM CONVEYOR BELT ARCING NORTHWEST INTO
DOWNSTATE ILLINOIS AND THEN WEST INTO MO/IA. EXTREMELY DIFLUENT AND
DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT NOTED IN PROFILER DATA AND CAN EVEN BE SEEN
IN GOES IMAGERY OVER MO INTO WESTERN ILLINOIS SUPPORTING THE
STRONG UPWARD VERTICAL VELOCITIES AND INTENSE PRECIP RATES.
EVENING SOUNDING FROM OUN SAMPLED THE COLD POOL ALOFT AND
ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WHICH HAVE BEEN
ADVECTING NORTHEASTWARD AND SUPPORTING ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS OVER
SOUTHERN IL AND EARLIER OVER MISSOURI. SYSTEM IS BECOMING
VERTICALLY STACKED AND GUIDANCE SUGGESTS IT IS VERY NEAR PEAK
INTENSITY NOW WITH A VERY SLOW/GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND EXPECTED
TODAY.

OTHER THAN PERHAPS A BIT WARMER IN THE LOW LEVELS THERE HAVE BEEN
VERY FEW CHANGES NOTED IN NUMERICAL GUIDANCE THIS EVENING WHEN
COMPARED WITH 12Z RUNS. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES AND
LATEST RAP/WRF-NAM GUIDANCE REMAIN AMONG THE WARMER SOLUTIONS TODAY
WITH 850MB TEMPS GETTING ABOVE FREEZING OVER THE ENTIRE CWA. MODELS
STILL STRONGLY SUGGEST THAT AS THE ARC OF WARM CONVEYOR BELT
PRECIPITATION SPREADS NORTH TODAY THAT THE COLUMN WILL COOL BOTH
EVAPORATIVELY AND DYNAMICALLY...WITH RAIN/WET SNOW TRANSITION LINE
SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE CWA. INCREASINGLY MODELS SUGGEST THAT A
FAIR AMOUNT OF THE PRECIPITATION OVER SE CWA COULD FALL AS RAIN AND
HAVE TRENDED GRIDS IN THAT DIRECTION. BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN OR SLEET
IS POSSIBLE AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA BEFORE QUICK TRANSITION TO WET SNOW OCCURS.

MODEL QPF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING REMAINS VERY
ROBUST...HOWEVER NAM/GFS/RAP VERTICAL CROSS SECTIONS SUGGEST A RAPID
WEAKENING OVER UPWARD VERTICAL VELOCITIES THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. THE CORRESPONDING DECREASE IN MODEL GENERATED QPF SEEMS A
BIT SLOW AND HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE MORE CONSERVATIVE HPC QPF
VALUES THROUGH TONIGHT. INTERESTINGLY THE HIGHER RES GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST AN ENHANCEMENT OF PRECIPITATION IMMEDIATELY
DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN...HOWEVER THERMAL ENVIRONMENT LOOKS
PRETTY UNFAVORABLE FOR ANY LAKE ENHANCEMENT WITH LAKE-850MB DELTA
T VALUES LESS THAN 8C. PERHAPS THE MODELS ARE KEYING IN ON
ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE DUE TO DIFFERENCE IN THE FRICTIONAL
SURFACES FROM THE LAKE TO LAND...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A
STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION BELOW 850MB THROUGH THIS EVENING
SUGGESTING THAT ANY UPWARD MOTION FROM THIS ASCENT WOULD LIKELY BE
VERY LIMITED IN VERTICAL EXTENT AND THEREFORE HAVE GENERALLY TONED
DOWN THOSE HIGHER QPF VALUES IN NEAR THE LAKE IN THE GRIDS.

ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY BE STRONGLY TIED TO PRECIPITATION
INTENSITY. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT HAVE LARGELY HELD IN THE MIDDLE
30S WITH WET BULB TEMPS NEAR/JUST BELOW FREEZING. WET BULBS WILL
LIKELY COME UP A COUPLE DEGREES TODAY AS HIGHER THETA E AIR MASS
ADVECTS IN AND COULD SEE HIGHS FLIRT WITH 40 PRIOR TO
PRECIPITATION STARTING...PARTICULARLY IN THE CHICAGO AREA WHERE
LITTLE SNOW REMAINS AND PRECIP START TIME WILL BE THE LATEST.
GENERALLY EXPECT SFC TEMPS JUST ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE WET SNOW
WHICH SHOULD LIMIT ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL DUE TO MELTING AND
COMPACTION...THOUGH THERE IS DEFINITELY A CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE
SNOWFALL THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WOULD BOOST SNOWFALL INTENSITY
ENOUGH TO COMPENSATE FOR MARGINAL TEMPS AND ALLOW FOR RAPID
ACCUMULATIONS. THE SPECTRUM OF POSSIBILITIES FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION
REALLY DOES RANGE FROM AN INCH OR TWO OF SLUSH TO POSSIBLY OVER 6
INCHES. QUICKLY WEAKENING VERTICAL VELOCITIES IN THE MODELS THIS
AFTERNOON CONCEPTUALLY FIT WITH WHAT WOULD BE EXPECTED (WEAKENING
DEFORMATION BAND AS SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS TAKES PLACE OVER THE
EAST COAST)...SO HAVE OPTED TO RIDE THE GOING FORECAST SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS TO THE BITTER END GIVEN NO STRONG INDICATION SUPPORTING
THE NEED TO ADJUST THEM AT THIS TIME.

CERTAINLY ONE COULD MAKE A PLAUSIBLE ARGUMENT TO TRY AND CHERRY PICK
A COUPLE COUNTIES FOR A WARNING OVER WESTERN CWA CLOSER TO THE
COLDER AIR MASS...OR NEAR THE LAKE WHERE HIGHER MODEL PROGGED QPF
IS...BUT FEEL THAT ANY 6"+ TOTALS WOULD BE EXCEPTION NOT THE RULE.
THINK THE CHANCES ARE ACTUALLY BETTER THAT MAJORITY OF THE ADVISORY
END UP WITH LESS THAN 3 INCHES OF SNOW THROUGH THIS EVENING THAN IT
IS MORE THAN 6 INCHES. CERTAINLY ANY HEAVILY FALLING SNOW DURING THE
AFTERNOON WILL SERIOUSLY HOSE UP PM RUSH HOUR REGARDLESS OF
ACCUMULATION RATES BUT WITH THE EXPECTATION OF AMOUNTS FALLING
MOSTLY ON THE LOWER END OF THE ADVISORY RANGE FELT THAT A HARD
HITTING ADVISORY WAS MORE PRUDENT THAN AN IMPACT BASED WARNING.

IZZI

LONG TERM (BEYOND TONIGHT)...

UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY WOBBLE OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE
FINALLY MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST FRIDAY. FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN
THE MOIST CYCLONIC TRAILING PERIPHERY...WHICH GRADUALLY WEAKENS WITH
TIME AS THE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS/TIME SECTIONS
DEPICT DECREASING MID-LEVEL RH BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...THOUGH
MOISTURE IS MAINTAINED FROM THE SURFACE UP THROUGH ABOUT 700 MB WITH
MODEST ASCENT WITHIN THE MOIST LAYER PROVIDED BY A COUPLE SHEARED
VORTS ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER CIRCULATION DURING THE DAY. THIS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT PRODUCTION OF LIGHT SNOW...THOUGH
FORECAST THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES DEPICT THE BEST LIFT/MOISTURE BELOW
THE MORE FAVORABLE DENDRITIC GROWTH TEMPERATURE LAYER AND THEREFORE
SUGGEST LOWER SNOW/LIQUID RATIO WITH SMALLER FLAKE SIZES. FORCING
CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WHILE HIGH POPS
APPEAR WARRANTED BASED ON THE OVERALL PATTERN...SUSPECT SOME OF THE
VARIOUS MODEL QPF IS ON THE HIGH SIDE DURING THIS PERIOD...AND HAVE
KEPT QFP/SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE. STILL...WITH
PROLONGED LIGHT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS EXTENDING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THERE COULD BE 1-2 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION IN SOME SPOTS ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA BY EARLY THURSDAY. SURFACE TEMPS
WILL LIKELY BE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL FOR SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION BY
DAY...WITH 925-950 MB TEMPS SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 30S
WED/THURS. HAVE GONE SLIGHTLY LOWER WITH DAYTIME MAXES WITH SOME
SNOW/CLOUD COVER EXPECTED.

WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOMING NORTH-NORTHEAST BY EARLY WEDNESDAY...
IT DOES SET UP A LONG FETCH DOWN LAKE MICHIGAN WHICH RAISES THE
QUESTION OF SOME LAKE EFFECT OR LAKE ENHANCED PRECIPITATION. LAKE
SURFACE TO H8 DELTA T VALUES ARE RELATIVELY UNIMPRESSIVE HOWEVER...
RANGING FROM AROUND 9 EARLY WED TO 11-12 WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
EVENTUALLY 13-14 LATER THURSDAY. THIS IS PRETTY MARGINAL...
ESPECIALLY INITIALLY WHEN THERE IS BETTER DEEP VERTICAL MOTION.
WHILE LIKELY TO MAINTAIN LAKE CLOUDS AND SOME FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEAST IL AND NORTHWEST IND THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT A FOCUSED BAND OF SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATION IS LIKELY.

BY FRIDAY...WEAK UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN LAKES WHILE
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE PLAINS AND LOWER MISSOURI
VALLEY. OTHER THAN A FEW LINGERING LAKE-INDUCED FLURRIES OR LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN...IT APPEARS ANY OTHER PRECIP WILL
BE FOCUSED FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED DIGGING WAVE. COOL
NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH SUNDAY...BEFORE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES ACROSS AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS KEEPS
TEMPS ON THE COLD SIDE OF CLIMATOLOGY AS WE TURN THE PAGE INTO
METEOROLOGICAL SPRING WITH ECMWF BLENDED GUIDANCE HIGHS AROUND
30...AND LOWS IN THE TEENS/20S OVER THE WEEKEND. TEMPS A LITTLE
WARMER AS WE GET WEST OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MONDAY. EXTENDED
RANGE OF ECMWF/GFS/GEFS DIG ANOTHER SYSTEM SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
PLAINS MONDAY-TUESDAY...THOUGH DIFFER IN DETAILS IN DEVELOPING WARM
ADVECTION PRECIP ACROSS THE MID/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. WILL MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST AT THIS POINT...FAVORING THE
ECMWF WHICH IS A LITTLE SLOWER/FARTHER WEST WITH THE DIGGING TROUGH.
GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO LOOK CHILLY FOR US THROUGH THE FIRST WEEK
OF MARCH.

RATZER

&&

AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...

* SNOW/SLEET MIXTURE TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW EARLY THIS
  AFTERNOON.

* PERIOD OF MODERATE SNOW BETWEEN 19-22Z...WITH REDUCED
  VISIBILITIES TO AROUND 1/2 SM IN THIS TIMEFRAME.

* CIGS WILL STEADILY TREND DOWN TO ARND 1400FT AGL...POSSIBLY
  LOWERING MORE WITH THE MODERATE SNOW PERIOD TO VV004.

* GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS ARND 15 TO 20 KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO
  30 KT EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

* LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

BEACHLER

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...

DYNAMIC WINTER STORM CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN
IL/NORTHWEST IN AIRFIELDS. AT THE ONSET THE PRECIPITATION TYPE
VARIES FROM A MIXTURE OF SLEET/SNOW/RAIN...HOWEVER OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE THE P-TYPE IS TRANSITIONING OVER TO A SNOW/SLEET
MIXTURE...THEN ALL SNOW. AS THE HEAVIEST PRECIP CONTINUES TO LIFT
NORTH ACROSS THE AIRFIELDS VSBYS WILL QUICKLY RAMP DOWN TO ARND
1/2SM THROUGH AT LEAST 21-22Z. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT ONCE THE
MODERATE SNOW DOES OCCUR VSBYS/CIGS WILL RAPIDLY BECOME REDUCED.
CIGS SHOULD BECOME REDUCED TO ARND 400-600FT AGL. THEN AS THE
MODERATE SNOW BEGINS TO BECOME LIGHT LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...CIGS/VSBYS WILL BEGIN TO LIFT. ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS CIGS
WILL REMAIN ARND 1000FT AGL OR JUST UNDER THIS THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. VSBYS WILL HOLD ARND 3-5SM WITH CONTINUED OFF
AND ON LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO MUCH OF
WEDNESDAY. TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS CONTINUES TO BE FOCUSED IN
THAT 3 TO 6 INCHES THROUGH MIDNIGHT...HOWEVER THE BULK OF THIS IS
EXPECTED TO FALL PRIOR TO 9PM TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN. WINDS SHOULD QUICKLY INCREASE THIS
MORNING WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 KTS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. WIND SHOULD STEADILY TAPER
THEREAFTER...BUT EXPECT GUSTS TO CONTINUE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20
KT RANGE INTO THE LATE EVENING.

BEACHLER

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP TYPE OF SNPL TRANSITIONING TO ALL SN
  BY EARLY THIS AFTN.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR/SPEED/GUSTS FORECAST.

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS FORECAST OF VV004.

* MEDIUM/HIGH CONFIDENCE IN REDUCED VSBYS TO ARND 1/2SM FOR A
  PERIOD WITH THE MODERATE SNOW THROUGH THIS AFTN.

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF IMPROVING CIGS/VSBYS.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN LIGHT SNOW CONTINUEING THROUGH TONIGHT.

BEACHLER

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SNOW...LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MVFR. PERIODIC LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR.

BMD

&&

MARINE...
932 AM CST

UPDATE ON CURRENT CONDITIONS AND SHORT TERM FORECAST THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...

WIND GUSTS ON SOUTHERN LAKE MI NEARING LOWER END GALE FORCE AT
15Z WHILE ON THE NORTH GUSTS MAINLY IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE.

WINDS STILL EXPECTED TO CRANK-UP TO 40KT OUT OF THE NORTHEAST ON
THE SOUTH BY MIDDAY...AND ON THE NORTH UP TO 35 KT FROM THE
NORTHEAST BY LATE AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD FROM EAST CENTRAL MO ACROSS SOUTHEAST AND TO EAST
CENTRAL IL BY LATE AFTERNOON.

WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING PARKED OVER QUEBEC...THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES AND NEW ENGLAND AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING
THE LAKE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH UP THE LAKE TODAY RESULTING
IN WINDS REACHING GALE FORCE BY MIDDAY ON SOUTHERN LAKE MI AND BY
LATE AFTERNOON ON THE NORTH.

TRS

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
300 AM CST

LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY THIS
MORNING AND WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS IT NEARS CENTRAL INDIANA LATE THIS
EVENING. A FAIRLY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP SOUTH TO
NORTH ACROSS THE LAKE AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTH TODAY...WITH WINDS
VERY QUICKLY INCREASING TO GALE FORCE. BY EARLY WEDNESDAY...THE
LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER NORTHWESTERN OHIO AND WILL SLOWLY MAKE
ITS WAY EAST TOWARDS THE EAST COAST THROUGH THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE...A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN AT LEAST A
MODERATE NORTHERLY GRADIENT ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PEAK AROUND 40 KT THIS AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN...BUT BY LATE TONIGHT SHOULD DIMINISH SLIGHTLY TO 30 TO
35 KT...THEN PERSIST THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. WITH LOW END GALES
POSSIBLE...WILL MAINTAIN THE GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. WINDS STAY FRESH THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. BMD

&&

LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-
     ILZ010-ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-
     ILZ022 UNTIL 9 PM TUESDAY.

IN...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-
     LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 UNTIL 3 AM THURSDAY.

     GALE WARNING...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-LMZ567-
     LMZ868 UNTIL 3 AM THURSDAY.

     GALE WARNING...ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 10 PM TUESDAY.

     GALE WARNING...INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 4 PM TUESDAY.

&&

$$