🚀 go-pugleaf

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1230 PM CDT SUN MAY 5 2013

.DISCUSSION...
313 AM CDT

THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS
MORNING PLACES THE CIRCULATION CENTER JUST WEST OF MEMPHIS. MOST OF
THE RAINFALL CONTINUES TO STAY JUST SOUTH OF MY AREA.
HOWEVER...RADAR TRENDS THIS MORNING SUGGEST THAT MY FAR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES COULD GET A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AT TIMES THROUGH THE
DAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

OVERALL...THE FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS HAS BECOME VERY
WEEK...WITH THE MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES WELL NORTH OF THE AREA IN
CANADA. THIS IS RESULTING IN THE VERY SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF
THIS UPPER LOW. HOWEVER...WITH ABOUT 80 TO 90 PERCENT OF MY AREA
REMAINING JUST NORTH OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ROTATING AROUND THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE
COUPLE OF DAYS. WITH ONLY SOME HIGHER CLOUDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME FILTERED SUNSHINE
TODAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONCE AGAIN WARM NICELY THIS
AFTERNOON. I WARMED TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE
GUIDANCE TO BETTER MATCH WHAT TEMPERATURES REACHED ON SATURDAY.
WITH LITTLE CHANCE IN THE AIR MASS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO TOP OUT IN THE LOW 70S...TO
POSSIBLY THE MID 70S INLAND. HOWEVER...NEAR THE LAKE THE ONSHORE
FLOW WILL RESULT IN MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS IN THE 60S.

ASIDE FROM A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME ISOLATED DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN DRY UNTIL
LATER IN THE WEEK. DURING THIS PERIOD...THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL
BEGIN TO BECOME A BIT MORE ACTIVE. IT APPEARS THAT A SECOND UPPER
LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WILL MOVE OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS LATE IN THE WEEK. IT WILL TAKES ITS TIME TO GET OUT ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH NO REAL KICKER TO GET IT MOVING.
OVERALL...THIS LOOKS AS THOUGH IT WILL PRODUCE A VERY GOOD CHANCE
OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES ALSO LOOK TO TREND COOLER
AGAIN.

KJB

&&

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...

MARGINALLY GUSTY NNE-NE WIND WITH GUSTS IN 14-18KT RANGE REST OF
DAYLIGHT HRS.

TRS

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...

AS TEMPERATURES WARMED INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S DURING THE
LATTER HALF OF THE MORNING DEEPENING OF MIXING HAS ALLOWED WINDS
OF 13-21 KT TO START MIXING DOWN.

LITTLE CHANGE IN CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24-30HR EXCEPT FOR
TYPICAL DIURNAL WIND CHANGES OF DECREASING AND BACKING WITH
SUNSET THEN INCREASING AND VEERING AFTER SUNRISE...AND VARYING
AMOUNTS OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WHICH ARE OF NO CONSEQUENCE.

WITH THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. CUT
OFF LOW TO BE ROTATING SE AND E AROUND THE SW AND S SIDES OF THE
UPPER LOW DURING MON THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOCALLY WILL BE A
LITTLE LESS THAN TODAY NO GUSTS FORECAST DURING THE DAY MON.

TRS


//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL PARAMETERS.

TRS

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA WED NGT.

THURSDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA. MVFR POSSIBLE IN TSRA.

FRIDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA. MVFR POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHRA.

RATZER

&&

.MARINE...
215 AM CDT

A RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN THROUGH MID-WEEK. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH HAS
SAT ACROSS MISSOURI AND WESTERN ILLINOIS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS WAS DRIFTING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES THIS
MORNING...AND WILL CONTINUE TO WOBBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.
THROUGH MID-WEEK. MEANWHILE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY ONTARIO WILL
GRADUALLY SETTLE SOUTHWARD...AND WILL BE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THUS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN...WITH NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 15 KT
OR SO EVENTUALLY BECOMING VARIABLE AT 5-10 KT AS THE SFC RIDGE AND
DAILY ONSHORE LAKE BREEZES BECOMES THE DOMINANT INFLUENCE ON LAKE
MICHIGAN WEATHER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LONGER RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE
DOES INDICATE A COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE LAKE
THURSDAY...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTH AND PICKING UP WIND SPEEDS
BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

RATZER

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$


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