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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1224 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

.DISCUSSION...
329 AM CDT

WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CWA THIS MORNING RESULTING IN
A SLACKENING OF THE GRADIENT AND SLIGHTLY COOLER (WELL LESS HOT)
CONDITIONS FILTERING INTO THE REGION TODAY AND THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK. LAKE BREEZES TO KEEP NATURE`S A/C GOING FOR AREAS NEAR THE
LAKE FOR ABOUT THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

SUMMER LIKE CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS HOLDING TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S
TO EVEN NEAR 80 IN SPOTS AT 3 AM. SOME ISOLATED HIGH BASED
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO TRY AND DEVELOP BUT WITH DRY AIR IN THE LOW
LEVELS REALLY NOT SEEING MUCH MORE THAN ISOLD TINY SHOWERS AND WOULD
EXPECT THESE TO FADE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS LOW LEVEL JET VEERS...
WEAKENS AND GETS SHUNTED SOUTH AND EAST BY APPROACHING WEAK COLD
FRONT. WEAK FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH
VERY LITTLE FAN FARE...BUT WINDS WILL VEER TO NORTHWEST AND GRADIENT
WILL EASE CONSIDERABLY WHICH SETS THE STAGE FOR A HEALTHY LAKE
BREEZE TO FORM THIS AFTERNOON SENDING LAKE SIDE TEMPS PLUMMETING.

MID-LATE MORNING HIGHS WILL BE REACHED ALONG THE LAKE WITH A
RAPID DROP INTO THE 50S EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE AREAS
INLAND REMAIN WARM AND HAVE TRENDED ABOVE GUIDANCE ONCE AGAIN
RELYING ON 850/925 TEMP CLIMO WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE. HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 80S INLAND EXCEPT SOUTHERN CWA WHERE UPPER 80S/NEAR 90
EXPECTED WITH LATER ARRIVAL OF COLD FRONT. COULD SEE SOME
ISOLD/SCTD SHRA/TSRA DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN CWA WITH NO PRECIP
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

FRONT STALLS OUT JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
PRETTY MUCH STATUS QUO CONDITIONS. SMALL CHANCES FOR SOME ISOLD
CONVECTION FAR SOUTHERN CWA OTHERWISE DRY AND WARM WITH LOW TO
POSSIBLY MID 80S WELL INLAND AND DAILY LAKE BREEZES KEEPING
AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE 50S RIGHT ON THE SHORE WITH THE COOLER
CONDITIONS SPREADING INLAND A WAYS AS LAKE BREEZES SURGE INLAND.

FRONT SHOULD SLOWLY RETURN NORTHWARD THIS WEEKEND BRINGING THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS/STORMS FARTHER NORTH INTO THE CWA ALONG WITH MORE
HUMID CONDITIONS AND LESS LAKE COOLING. WITH SURFACE BOUNDARY IN THE
AREA AND CWA ON THE FRINGE OF THE STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
AM FORCED TO MAINTAIN CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALL
WEEKEND...BUT AS ALLUDED TO YESTERDAY SUSPECT THE DRY HOURS THIS
WEEK WILL FAR SURPASS ANY RAINY TIMES. OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS/STORMS
SHOULD SEE ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS AND FAIRLY HUMID CONDITIONS.

LONG WAVE TROUGH PROGGED TO EJECT SLOWLY NORTHEAST TOWARD THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MODELS TRENDING SLOWER AGAIN
AND WOULDNT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THAT TREND CONTINUE. UNTIL THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH WE WILL HAVE PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
WITH ABOVE AVG TEMPS AND RATHER HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE SLOWER TREND WITH THE TROUGH IN THE MODELS HAS
ALLOWED ME TO BUMP UP TEMPS SOME EARLY NEXT WEEK AND SHOULD THIS
TREND CONTINUE COULD EASILY SEE TEMPS EVEN WARMER ON MONDAY AND
POSSIBLY TUES THAN WHAT THIS MORNING`S FORECAST WILL CARRY.

IZZI

&&

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...

* NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON.

PAW

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...

FRONT THAT MOVED ACROSS THE TERMINALS LAST NIGHT IS MOVING INTO
CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND INDIANA AT MIDDAY. AREAS OF SHRA/TSRA
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO STAY WELL SOUTH OF THE
TERMINALS. VFR-LEVEL CLOUDS OR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE. WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT ARE NORTHWEST TO NORTH WITH SOME OCCASIONAL
GUSTS. AT ORD AND MDW EXPECTING A LAKE BREEZE TO FURTHER SHIFT
THE WINDS TO NORTHEAST BY MID AFTERNOON. THEN WINDS BECOMING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING AT ALL THE TERMINALS.

PAW

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND TREND...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.

PAW

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR.

FRIDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA...OTHERWISE VFR.

SATURDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA...OTHERWISE VFR.

SUNDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA...OTHERWISE VFR.

MONDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA...OTHERWISE VFR.

TUESDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA...OTHERWISE VFR.

RODRIGUEZ

&&

.MARINE...
405 AM CDT

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO AND THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST TOWARDS WESTERN QUEBEC TODAY...WHILE
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER
MIDWEST TONIGHT. WHILE THIS OCCURS...SOUTHWEST WINDS AS STRONG AS
30 KT WILL CONTINUE TO BE REPLACED WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AS A FRONT
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM DROPS DOWN THE LAKE. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH THROUGH MID DAY AND THEN CONTINUE THIS TREND THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE...WHILE WEST WINDS 10 TO 20 KT
CONTINUE TONIGHT. AFTER TONIGHT...WINDS/WAVES WILL STAY ON THE
LIGHTER SIDE FOR THE ENTIRE LAKE INTO THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

RODRIGUEZ

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$


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