🚀 go-pugleaf

The discussion of 32 and 64 bits is the best thing on this group
for a long time! One factor which hasn't been discussed yet is
the *need* for 64 bit machines.

Eight bit machines could do office automation quite well, and
many were used with Concurrent CP/M as multiuser machines. The
16 bit machines are being used to run small businesses, schools,
etc. The 68020 and 80386 have enough power to run large
businesses, schools, city and county government, etc.

The reason that machines like PCs sold so well is that many
people really needed them, and the large market brought
competition and ecomonics of scale. The market for 32 bit
computers goes all the way to running most countries. Who then
needs 64 bits?

The engineering types with large problems, the graphics hackers,
the people doing realtime Mandlebrot displays, even include
software developers and the percentage of the market is pretty
small. All the reasons for the rapid migration to 16 bits and
the steady evolution to 32 are missing.

I predict that the micro and mini computer markets will be
largely 32 bit for 5-8 years. I also predict the UNIX will
become much more common, due to the cost of developing new
software. The 32 bit computers we have now will run businesses
and governments up to the national level, provide cheap
multiuser office automation, run both classes and administration
in schools, etc. IBM has gone with 32 bits for 20 years, I see
no reason to think they will change. They have left the 64 bit
market to CDC and Cray as a low volume niche.

The issue is economic rather than technical, computers are
subject to the same market factors as automobile engines: it's
fun to have a big one, but most people won't spend a lot to get
more than they need. The market (units and $) is in the small
family sedan, 12 passenger vans and dump trucks are sold only to
those who need them enough to pay, and sports cars are bought by
people who want to project a flashy image.

Disclamer:
 my opinion only.

Suggestion: before you write that flame, talk to someone who has
had some formal training in economics, or dig out your old text.
-- 
bill davidsen			sixhub \
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ARPA: davidsen%crdos1.uucp@ge-crd.ARPA (or davidsen@ge-crd.ARPA)