🚀 go-pugleaf

Erik P. DeBenedictis wrote:
> 
> Chris Marston wrote:
> >
> > Erik P. DeBenedictis wrote:
> > >
> > > Is it possible that Java will become the Prolog or PL/1 of the 90's?
> > >
> > > Erik DeBenedictis
> >
> > When was the last time you saw ProLog featured in Time magasine? ;^) I
> > think it already has too much inertia & dev community support behind
> > it to meet that kind of grisly end. Besides, Java is actually
> > _useful_....
> 
> Good question, and it does have an answer. In the USA, Prolog was an acedemic
> language that never attracted a wide following.
> 
> Japan, however, based its "fifth generation computing initiative" on Prolog.
> The idea (in both Japan and the USA) was that Japan's equivalent of DARPA
> would -- in one fell swoop involving several billion dollars
> of research funding -- take away the lead the USA has in software and
> bring it to Japan.
> 
> This happened 10-15 years ago.
> 
> It was a really big deal in the USA at that time. While I don't recall exactly,
> I believe the issue got the cover of Time-type magazines a half-dozen times
> as well as generating several hundred less-prominent articles in the popular
> press.
> 
> I believe my comparison between Prolog and Java is worth considering, although
> I will admit there are differences. Japan is not the USA, and Silicon Valley
> (home of Netscape and Sun) is administred very differently than DARPA or MITI.
> 
> Erik DeBenedictis

Japan's 5th Generation Project and Logic Programming a la Prolog was indeed a big 
deal, at least in the industry and among computer science academia.  The 
comparison with Java makes a certain amount of sense.

That Japan would become a hot new source of innovative software always seemed to 
me about as likely as A.T.&T. coming to dominate the computer industry.  
Similarly, if Java had remained a closely held property of Sun Microsystems, I 
would have written it off by now, since I no longer believe in the ability of 
proprietary computer hardware manufacturers to influence the evolution of 
software or the net in any dominant way.  Always look at who is using the 
technology, and how widely dispersed they are.  FORTRAN became the language of 
choice of the scientific community, and it still is.

What is Java's constituency?  I'd say at this point it isn't clear.  Web hackers, 
mostly -- the people who follow this newsgroup.  Professional developers looking 
for a way to do cool web stuff, who can leverage their C++ skills.  Not end 
users of course, and not large application developers, not yet; the focus 
so far seems to be mostly on applets.   Most of what has emerged seems like 
tinkering.  Some nice toolsets are obviously in the making, which bodes well.  
But I have yet to see one compelling Java app, or family of applets.

It's all terminally cute but there is no existence proof so far for anything 
truly new that enriches the experience of users everywhere, the way VisiCalc 
or WordStar did.  There's just this feeling, shared by many I suppose, that Java 
ought to be good for something revolutionary.  After all, if you can program for 
the web, as opposed to Windows, and distribute over the web, as opposed to in 
shrink-wrapped boxes, that's potentially world-changing.  But the operative word 
here is potential.

What can Java do, that can't be done nearly as easily without it, that would 
capture the attention of the entire web user base nearly overnight?  If this 
question is hard to answer, that's because twiddling with new tools is always 
easier than using your imagination.  But if it's impossible to answer, then the 
predictions that Java will wind up like Prolog or AI are probably accurate.

Even ONE killer applet would be nice.

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