🚀 go-pugleaf

[reposted from comp.society.futures]

In predicting technology trends, look for the most rapid advances
in areas where the new technology can be acquired incrementally.
Thus, even though marvelous datacom networks are buildable right
now, look for big growth in CD-rom first.  Data network services
will piggyback onto existing phone and cable; by 2000, there may
be fiber ISDN everywhere, maybe not.

Cellular wristphones will hinge on battery technology, which I'm not
up to predicting;  a cellular phone/datalink in your paperback-sized
pocket computer will be a common option.

The keyboard will go the way of the card reader.  Voice-and-pointer
will be standard; the pointer may be a dataglove or merely a camera
pointed at your hand.  You have to have something to do with that
100 mips, after all.

Software for language comprehension will emerge from a synthesis of
spelling and grammar correctors, OCR for scanned text input, and
talkwriters.  The typical user interface will be the image of a 
talking head with the comprehension of a dumb and literal-minded
eighth-grader.  40% of total processing power will go into speech
recognition and 50% into realtime graphics face generation.

* BSG's (bullshit generators) will be the spreadsheet of the 90's,
* taking outlines, collections of text fragments, previously written
* documents, and background databases and producing finished reports.
* One will be able to produce ten times the paperwork in the same amount
* of time.  BSF's (filters), programs that "read" reports and produce
* outlines and summary fragments, will also be popular.

Robotics will sneak in the back door.  House control/entertainment
systems will grow, vaccuum cleaners and lawn mowers will begin to
operate autonomously, freezer/microwaves will waken you with the
tempting aroma of a TV omelet.  "The first true fully automatic home"
will be announced several times.  Robot butlers that greet visitors,
take coats, and serve drinks will be feasible (though quite expensive)
by the turn of the century, and may catch on in some circles if the
fad falls right.

* Drug traffickers will realize that automatic weapons can be mounted
* on 1995's toy robots, which can be programmed to recognize policemen
* with an accuracy of 85%.

By the end of the decade, some major strides will have been made in
life extension; the obvious ones are mass production by gene-spliced
bacteria of the handful of critical proteins that the ageing process
curtails the body's production of.  As I understand it, this could 
alleviate many symptoms of ageing and extend lifespan by up to 50%.

* Ronald Reagan will be the last president to have appointed anyone
* to the Supreme Court.  Each medical advance will newly bankrupt the
* Social Security System, requiring massive tax increases.
 
Back to computers, I agree with Barry [Shein] that sometime in the 90's
the information available in electronic form will catch and exceed
that available on paper, but I intend to have a large personal library
of data and programs, made possible by constantly improving storage
technology.  Already in the 80's electronic data storage surpassed
paper in compactness and economy.  

The ability to access and manipulate our "social database" by computer
will further accelerate the rate of technological advancement, as will
CAD tools for an increasing number of areas and "computer aided X" for
an increasing range of X.

* Voice, text, and CAD systems will be pointed to both by AI researchers
* and their critics as supporting their positions.

--JoSH