🚀 go-pugleaf

[reposted from comp.society.futures]

I predicted earlier that:
> The keyboard will go the way of the card reader.  Voice-and-pointer
> will be standard; ...

Steve Savitzky replied:
> I just have to respond to this.  WRONG.  Think what it would be like
> on an airplane with everyone muttering to their pocket computer.
> Think what office cubicles would be like.  Try editing a program over
> the phone (I've done it).

A better model is looking over the shoulder of a hotshot editor
wizard, pointing at the screen occasionally, and telling him what to
do.  Over the phone, you can't see the screen, and you can't point.
Also realize that there will be a whole new generation of verbally-
oriented command languages, with idiomatic (and idiosyncratic)
contractions for commonly used operations.

Imagine sitting on an airplane and having people talking to their
neighbors in conversational tones.  This is quite common in my
experience; the air conditioning and engine noise is louder than the
conversational background, and it's still easy to be understood.
Telephone operators work in open rooms on consoles much closer
together and with fewer partitions than the average programmer;
there is not significant crosstalk.

Steve continues:

> Voice I/O will be useful only where keyboards and screens are not.

I didn't intend to imply that voice would preclude a screen.

> Voice mail will largely be replaced by text-oriented email, not the
> other way around.  

I agree halfway--mail will be sent as voice, received as text.

> Pocket computers will generally use handwriting recognition on their
> touch-sensitive screens, rather than voice inputs.

I would expect both at once.  When trying to get a technical idea
across to a person, I talk and draw figures (on blackboard or napkin).
Entering text will almost surely be voice; editing may well be by
drawing standard proofreaders marks on the screen.

...
> The standard lap/desk-top computer will be 8.5x11x.5 inches.  The
> display will go all the way to the edge, so larger displays can be
> built up by tiling.

This isn't a technological question, obviously, but I would also 
expect pocket-sized (3.5"x5+") and computers built into a briefcase
(complete with screen-image projector for making sales presentations).

> Pocket computers + _partially_transparent_ eyephones + locators +
> cellular networks will permit cyberspace to be overlaid on the real
> world.  This will permit virtual nametags (title bars for people),
> virtual costumes, virtual street signs, and the like.

One of my fondest hopes, but it won't happen before 2000.  There's
still too big a technological gap in front of a wearable (eyeglasses
weight < 1 oz) display device, and a usable system would require
too much integration from too many people at once.  By 2000, expect 
game arcades, high-tech work areas, and so forth to offer local
indoor versions with helmet-weight (>1 lb) technology--but nothing on 
the streets.

> High-quality multi-media or hypermedia documents will prove to be as
> expensive to produce as movies or grand operas.  Only a few will be
> produced before interactive virtual realities make them obsolete.

Rather, expect them to be produced as commonly as movies, distributed
as widely, and be in the same price range.

I think hypermedia and VR don't compete head to head.  HM is like
books and lectures, VR like games and conversation.  They complement
each other.

--JoSH