The Future Was

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3 total messages Started by Mark Thomsen Wed, 15 Apr 1992 20:17

#1620

Author: Mark Thomsen
Date: Wed, 15 Apr 1992 20:17

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1980. Hardly any Unix systems around. No DOS. What's a PARC? Clearly the  
dominant computer system software is IBM <pick one> or that new DEC VMS that's  
doing so well. People will program in FORTRAN or this Pascal, except for the  
hoard of Cobol folk. Command lines are all we know but we might see graphics.  
The future is merely an extrapolation of the present.

Or perhaps we should pay attention to this activity over in the corner with  
Apple?

Come on now. The future is as much DOS as it is IBM mainframe systems, DEC VMS,  
or Apple IIs. Microsoft has a better business plan than IBM, DEC, or Apple for  
maintaining some form of leadership in computer system software, but the game  
will change and DOS will not be the leader. Count on it. Certainty. The only  
alternative is stagnation of the computer industry - and the historical lesson  
is that we are due for a whole bunch of change before that happens.

In 10 years people will point out in how inside this new #1 you can find bits  
of DOS, but by now most people don't even know what computer system software is  
all about. It is just as likely as anything else on the horizon that the future  
is NeXTstep, and just as unlikely at this early stage of the future.

The only thing that seems to survive each decade of change is Cobol. If you  
*want* stability and ease of predicting the future based on the present, become  
a Cobol data processing professional.

Mark R. Thomsen

Re: The future is not NeXTstep!

#1762

Author: Michael D Mellinger
Date: Fri, 17 Apr 1992 06:41

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In article <4710@cluster.cs.su.oz.au> jimu@orthanc.cs.su.oz.au (James Uther) writes:

   Why does everyone here think that the future will belong to
   nextstep?  Correct me if i'm wrong, but NeXtstep is the first major
   implementation of an object based environment (except smalltalk
   perhaps), and pioneers only ever lead when a technology is new.
   Where is the Xerox Alto? Let's face it, Pink will be better than
   NeXTstep is today, because Apple will have used NeXTstep as a
   prototype for ideas, identified the faults, and done something
   better. (If they haven't then i'll be mighty surprised, i mean,
   what'd be the point?)

What does being better have to do with anything?  The Mac was clearly
better than DOS.  Unix is a better OS than OS/2.  Price plays a very
important role in gaining widespread acceptance.  For NeXTstep to
become the most popular OS, it would have to run on $1000 computers
and sell for $99.  At $5000 for a networkable machine, NeXT is looking
at a total market of maybe 1,000,000 machines over the next 8 to 10
years.  However, that's not entirely bad.  Sun, for example, has grown
to become a $3 billion company selling b/w 500,000 and 700,000
workstations that are priced at >=$5000 (they're selling 200,000/year
now) over the past 10 years.

As for Pink, I haven't seen any functionality that it will offer that
NeXT doesn't already have.

-Mike

The future is not NeXTstep!

#1754

Author: James Uther
Date: Sat, 18 Apr 1992 04:36

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Why does everyone here think that the future will belong to nextstep?
Correct me if i'm wrong, but NeXtstep is the first major implementation
of an object based environment (except smalltalk perhaps), and pioneers only 
ever lead when a technology is new. Where is the Xerox Alto? Let's face 
it, Pink will be better than NeXTstep is today, because Apple will have used
NeXTstep as a prototype for ideas, identified the faults, and done something
better. (If they haven't then i'll be mighty surprised, i mean, what'd be the
point?)
	Of course I may be wrong. NS4.0 might be a winner. But to be so
it'll have to be a generation ahead of NS3.0 
	Just some thoughts.

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