🚀 go-pugleaf

In <4jrkl4$uhk@daffy.anetsrvcs.uwrf.edu>, bl03@uwrf.edu (BENJAMIN A LINDSTROM) writes:
>Umm..A few minor points. =)
>
>: >>3. Central control over GUI-based PCs with all the "PC" capabilities,
>: >>   but fewer of the disadvantages (can print.....but doesn't have any moving
>: >>   parts to fail - like a hard drive).

>: Any failure would likely be on the single processor plane in the box.
>: You'd either get a new one slotted in - or buy a new box.

>Major problem with any GUI based system that out a harddrive is the
>access time....  There has to be at least a finate amount of space
>for swap, because it's very bad to swap over ethernet, or 28.8kb
>modems.=)

Reality check time -- the NC type system isn't running virtual
memory. The whole schemmeggie, including application, data, OS, JAVA
interpreter, brower, protocol stack, etc. runs from RAM and Flash
ROM. Locally, this can be real fast. Applications will be specifically
partitioned so that you only reload from the network during major
context swaps (eg, you're switching Java applets). And with ISDN and
cable modems, the 28.8kbaud pipe may be very short lived for these
things. 

Bottom line is, the technology is fundamentally sound, and really no
great stretch. I think the basic concept is flawed, primarily because
you can have a real computer for the same price as an NC. A basic hard
disk is only about $70 cost. The real thing here is that it MAY be
easier to market a non-Windows computer as an NC than as yet another
type of stand alone computer. Regardless of the fact it does less for
you. 

>Your at risk by letting someone else deal with your backups. 

You mean, like system administrators? 

The whole NC concept is an effort to sneak the mainframe back into
common use, one way or another. Sure, it may actually be a network of
Suns doing the mainframe thing for you, but it's functionally the
same. Some corporations may want this, I think some of the big ones
never quite liked the idea of the PC anyway. I've seen companies that
have yanked the floppies out of every machine on their network. Sure,
viruses are that scarey...

>You are now giving someone else rights to rumage through your files.

Actually, a common carrier service like an ISP has no more right to
rummage through your files than the Post Office or Federal Express
have to rummage through your mail. This isn't necessarily the case
with the system administrator, of course, since that's up to company
policy. 

>: The depends on the network. ATM at 1.2 gigabits should support a
>: fair bit of activity. I have seen DCE....the network survived
>: very nicely.

>ATM...now that is a new bird. =)  Now I think throwing a Frame Relay
>line to every clients home would have to be killer.  (Frame Relay is
>the base for ATM.)

Thing is, ATM, T1, Frame Relay, or any other fairly exotic network
hookup isn't necessary for the home user of these things. You can get
near ATM speeds over a single cable channel. That'll be enough for
quite some time, the return channel's not all that critical, and at
least in a modern cable channel, there will be room to spare once they
go digital. 

>I don't like the concept just due to the fact that ATM lines are not cheep,
>and I'm sure $500 does not cover the net connect charge....How much is 
>that?  IT's sorta like buying "Internet in a Box" for $50 and expecting to
>not to pay any more for Internet.  It's just stupid.

THAT is the fault of the concept. And it's not the $20/month basic
connect charge, that's just the tip of the iceberg. The most promising
model for the NC is the Cell Phone Model. The target for NCs is a
roughly $500 MSRP. Priced a cell phone lately, sans service contract?
NC service providers will give you a free NC that hooks to your TV, as
long as you sign up for some set service term. That'll start at the
normal $15-$20/month V34 dialup, or whatever they can add beyond that
for ISDN or cable modem access. Plus any distance charges in the
former case. 

So far, not unlike the typical PC user. But then you have to consider
this hookup, it's not quite the ISP model. Most ISPs have shell
accounts, and store your email until your POP mailer grabs it. Most
other things just use your account as a POTS to T1 converter, or
however you'd like to imagine it. Sure, a few guys out there use the
shell accounts for more, but there's a distinct minority. However,
NCs aren't just going to be browsing the Web. They rely on the
provider for all storage, all software, etc. That provider will,
sooner or later, add that monthly storage charge, offer those premium
programs, etc. 

So it's not long at all before that free computers turns out to have
cost more than this month's McClone down at Comp USA. The folks who
sign up for these probably won't figure that out until they've already
spent the money. Those who know better already have computers at
home. 

>IS this technology based on the aging and falling apart Novell
>technology?

Not necessarily. There are several different NC projects: at Sun, at
Oracle, as part of various digital television players. I don't know
that Novell's involved with any of them, but there are enough that
perhaps they have their hand in one. 

>: >>BOTTOM LINE: The Net PC could become like every other home appliance or
>: >>             ubiquitous business tool. You buy it cheap(ish). It retains
>: >>             its value over time - being compatible with advancing technology
>: >>             at the *server* end. No need to upgrade every 2 years.

Then again, for the price you pay to get the continuous service, you
could upgrade every two years. Some things in an NC will already be
dated. They won't generally play games as well as a game
machine. They'll often be nasty on the eyes, especially if you're
talking about using the TV for true Web browsing -- Interlace and
today's Web Pages are a bad idea. Of course, there's a great chance
that these services will work more like an AOL or CI$, where you have
private content, which looks good on TV, as well as access to the
internet. 

>: 4. E-mail, WWW, interactive TV, Video-phone, usenet, word processor,
>:    spreadsheet, banking, shopping, radio - buy electronic music, program
>:    your own, personal radio station......or how about mass-games with
>:    teams of hundreds or thousands? I can think of a million applications
>:    that would make it useful, fun, productive - and cheap.

Except that you're likely to pay for that stuff. Probably some kind of
microbilling, just a few cents here and there for each thing you
do. But it'll stack up, and it's quite unlike what folks are used
to. In most things, you'll rent it once, or buy it if its going to be
reused. So you go to the movies to see something once, but if you
really like it, you buy the tape, the CD, the program, etc. Here you
have a model where in all likelihood, you wind up buying the same
service over and over again. Maybe the amount of free stuff grows with
the competition, but don't count on it. They have you locked in,
doubly -- the service contract for one, plus the fact that the NC is
useless without the service. Look at pay TV. It's troublesome for
viewers to change their hookup, and the content providers know
it. They keep the prices on things and the content just at the point
where most people aren't especially satisfied, but won't turn off the
service. That's the way to maximize profits -- spend the least
possible on content that'll net you the largest pool of viewers. Don't
expect the NC thing to work much differently. 

EXCEPT for one thing: they can offer virtually unlimited forms of
pay-per-view. The best of the NC programs. NC-based heroinware -- you
get the first level free, pay small fee for successive levels. View
your bank account for free, pay your bills for only a small fee per
bill. The list is endless, and there are really creative people
working on these things. 

Dave Haynie          | ex-Commodore Engineering |   for DiskSalv 3 &
Sr. Systems Engineer |  Hardwired Media Company | "The Deathbed Vigil"
Scala Inc., US R&D   |    Ki No Kawa Aikido     |     info@iam.com

	     "Feeling ... Pretty ... Psyched" -R.E.M.