🚀 go-pugleaf

   Caveat: The EN/SO is difficult to predict, and the single largest
componant of the Dr. Gray's prediction function. Last year at this time,
it was expected among many quarters that El Nino would redevelop by the
end of 1999. Instead, strong La Nina condition continue with no sign of
abatement. Oddly enough, however, the continued La Nina did not result in
as many Atlantic named storms in 1999 as in 1998, when La Nina was
actually weaker than this year's La Nina during the critical late-summer
and early-autumn hurricane season months.

   We are still in the ramp-up stage to a solar maxima, and there appears
to be some correlation between EN/SO and solar maxima/minima. Should La
Nina continue throughout the summer of next year, expect a greater than
normal season.

From below:
> =09*A reversal of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, which consists of
> stratospheric, equatorial east-west winds blowing 16 to 35 kilometers above
> the earth's surface. These winds typically blow for 12-16 months from the
> east and then reverse and blow the same length of time from the west with a
> total period of about 26 to 30 months, or roughly two years. The shift due
> next season will produce easterly winds, which tend to interfere with the
> development of easterly (barometric) waves coming off the coast of Africa.=


   It should be noted that easterly waves did rather poorly in the central
Atlantic east of 50W this year as compared to last year. There was also a
dearth of early-season storms.


In article
<Pine.LNX.4.10.9912081023370.20378-100000@typhoon.atmos.colostate.edu>,
Bill Thorson <thorson@typhoon.atmos.colostate.edu> wrote:

> COLORADO STATE HURRICANE FORECAST TEAM CALLS FOR 'AVERAGE' 2000 SEASON;
> MODERATING FACTORS SHOULD LESSEN ACTIVITY OF PAST TWO YEARS
> 
>      [  NOTE: Forecast totals are in the attached chart. The complete   ]
>      [  hurricane forecast and related research and related research    ]
>      [  and press releases are available on the World Wide Web at:      ]
>      [      http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/forecasts/index.html    ]
>      [  For more information contact:                                   ]
>      [      David Weymiller     phone: (970) 491-6432                   ]
>      [                         e-mail: Dweymiller@vines.colostate.edu   ]
> 
> December 8, 1999
> 
> =09FORT COLLINS--The United States and countries in and bordering the
> Caribbean Basin should experience fewer storms and hurricanes in 2000 than
> in recent years, according to the Colorado State University hurricane
> forecast team's initial prediction.=20
> =09William Gray, a nationally recognized hurricane expert, and his
> colleagues are calling for a "moderate" season in 2000 with 11 named storms=
> ,
> seven hurricanes and three intense hurricanes predicted.=20
> =09While above the long-term average, the 2000 forecast calls for fewer
> storms than occurred in the years 1995, 1996, 1998 and 1999. The team is
> calling for an above-average probability of U.S. major hurricane landfall.=
> =20
> =09Their record for the 1999 season was one of the best in the 16 years
> the seasonal forecasts have been issued. In 1999, the team retained its
> original forecast throughout the season, predicting 14 named storms, nine
> hurricanes and four major, or intense, hurricanes. At the end of the June
> 1-Nov. 30 season, observed totals were 12 named storms, eight hurricanes an=
> d
> five major hurricanes.=20
> =09Long-term averages based on the period 1950-1990 indicate 9.3 named
> storms, 5.8 hurricanes and 2.2 intense hurricanes per year. The 2000 season
> forecast, while closer to average than others of recent years, is still
> expected to exceed the average season during the relatively quiet period
> between 1970-94.
> =09A principal reason for the moderate storm numbers is the team's
> belief that the La Nin=E3 phenomenon, present for the past two years, will
> reduce in strength by next season. This should weaken its enhancing effect
> on hurricane formation in the Atlantic Basin (comprising the North Atlantic
> Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico). Gray warned, however, that
> indications continue to show that intense storms (with wind speeds above 11=
> 0
> mph) will occur.=20
> =09In terms of the probability of landfall, this year's forecast calls
> for the U.S. Atlantic Coast, including peninsular Florida, to have a 45
> percent chance of being hit by one or more major storms with winds above 11=
> 0
> mph. The long-term (100-year) mean is 31 percent. The Gulf Coast faces a 37
> percent probability of one or more landfalling major hurricanes, while the
> long-term Gulf Coast average is 30 percent. The chances of one or more
> intense storms coming ashore somewhere along the entire U.S. coast, from
> Brownsville to the Canadian border, is 66 percent (the long-term average is
> 52 percent).=20
> =09"We do not foresee the number of intense storms in Saffir-Simpson
> categories 3-5 that we saw in the Atlantic Basin in 1995, 1996 and last
> year," Gray said. "Of the five major hurricanes in 1999, only
> one--Bret--struck the U.S. coast, in a nearly uninhabited area of south
> Texas.=20
> =09"Floyd, another category 4 storm, lashed the East Coast from Florida
> north before coming ashore as a strong category 2 hurricane in North
> Carolina, bringing unprecedented amounts of rainfall."
>  =09Gray, professor of atmospheric sciences at Colorado State, and his
> colleagues believe the 2000 season will start earlier than the seasons of
> 1998 and 1999. Until four hurricanes formed during a brief period in the
> last third of August of this year, only one tropical storm (Arlene) had
> occurred in the first two-plus months of the 1999 season.=20
> =09"Relatively moderate seasons frequently start earlier, which is why
> we think we'll see more storms earlier in the summer of 2000," Gray said.
> "In addition, 2000 will be one of these seasons in which equatorial
> stratospheric winds known as the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation are easterly,
> which tends to inhibit storm formation at lower latitudes."=20
>  =09Contributing to the anticipated moderate season this year are a
> number of atmospheric and oceanic phenomena that Gray calls "climate
> signals." Those include:
> =09*La Nin=E3, a mass of cold water in the eastern equatorial Pacific. La
> Nin=E3 was powerful this year and produced anomalous upper tropospheric
> easterly winds over the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic, a condition that
> acted to enhance hurricane formation.=20
> =09Next year, while the mass of water will likely remain cold, Gray and
> his colleagues expect the temperature to moderate. They do not anticipate a=
> n
> El Ni o condition developing.=20
> =09*A reversal of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, which consists of
> stratospheric, equatorial east-west winds blowing 16 to 35 kilometers above
> the earth's surface. These winds typically blow for 12-16 months from the
> east and then reverse and blow the same length of time from the west with a
> total period of about 26 to 30 months, or roughly two years. The shift due
> next season will produce easterly winds, which tend to interfere with the
> development of easterly (barometric) waves coming off the coast of Africa.=
> =20
> =09*Continued warm North Atlantic sea surface temperatures. While these
> temperatures have moderated slightly during the last year, they indicate
> that the Atlantic Ocean thermohaline circulation system, or Atlantic
> conveyor belt, continues strong.=20
> =09A strong Atlantic conveyor belt, Gray and others believe,
> contributes to the formation of greater numbers of major or intense
> (Saffir-Simpson category 3-5) storms. This increases the probability of
> major hurricane landfall on the U.S. East Coast and in the Caribbean.=20
> =09"I think 2000 will continue the new era of increased Atlantic
> conveyor belt strength and hence of the probability of more intense
> hurricanes," Gray said. "Following a period of suppressed major hurricane
> activity from 1970 to 1994, it is expected that 2000 will continue the
> upward trend established in 1995."=20
> =09The years 1995-99 were the most-active five consecutive years of
> hurricane activity on record in the Atlantic Basin, yielding 65 named
> storms, 41 hurricanes and 20 major hurricanes. By contrast, the numbers of
> hurricanes and typhoons in the Pacific Ocean are lower, which Gray takes as
> an indication that the upward trend in Atlantic storms should not be
> interpreted as being the result of human-induced global warming.=20
>  =09Gray and co-authors Chris Landsea, Paul Mielke, Kenneth Berry, with
> the assistance of Todd Kimberlain, Eric Blake and Bill Thorson, use a
> variety of climatic factors in their forecasts. In addition to stratospheri=
> c
> winds, continuing warm North Atlantic sea surface temperatures and
> continuing La Ni=F1a conditions, they look at a ridge of barometric high
> pressure called the Azores High, warmer sea-surface temperatures throughout
> the Atlantic, two measures of west African rainfall and mid-latitude oceani=
> c
> wind patterns in the Atlantic and Pacific oceans.
> 
> =09GRAY RESEARCH TEAM HURRICANE FORECAST FOR 2000 SEASON
> 
> =09=09=09=09Initial December 1999 Forecast
> Named Storms (9.3)*                           11
> Named Storm Days (46.9)                       55
> Hurricanes (5.8)                               7
> Hurricane Days (23.7)                         25
> Intense Hurricanes (2.2)                       3
> Intense Hurricane Days (4.7)                   6
> Hurricane Destruction Potential (70.6)**      85
> Maximum Potential Destruction (61.7)          70
> Net Tropical Cyclone Activity (100%)         120
> 
>  * Number in ( ) represents average year totals based on 1950-1990 data.
> ** Hurricane Destruction Potential measures a hurricane's potential for
>    wind- and ocean-surge damage. Tropical Storm, Hurricane and Intense
>    Hurricane Days are four, six-hour periods where storms attain wind speed=
> s
>    appropriate to their category on the Saffir-Simpson scale.


Mike Schneider, VRWC Sentinel Outpost.  "Autoguns, on-line!"  +--+--+--+
Reply to mike1@@@winternet.com sans two @@, or your reply won't reach me.

"My favorite president is Washington, because he's been dead the longest."
      -- Rob Robertson

      FAILURE OF THE PUBLIC TRUST:  http://www.swlink.com/~hoboh/

As Virgo rises and Scorpio is in its zenith, I recommend Leos should be
on the lookout for love.  Sagittarii, however, should beware of shady
financial dealings, and possibly break out the Guinness, as it's going
to be a long week.
-- 
Adam Carheden
carheden@holly.ColoState.EDU