🚀 go-pugleaf

The probability of HOV lanes success in very low. Here's why:

- The probability that the optimum number of persons will car pool so
  as to insure maximum utilization of both HOV lanes and regular lanes
  is extremely low, simply because the right percentage of those who
  can or will car pool is seldom going to be right most of the time
  due to demographics.

- The number of HOV lanes required for optimum utilization is not an
  integer such as 1 or 2, but a real number such as .5 or 1.4, but
  lanes only come in integers quantities, so most of the time
  utilization cannot be even close to optimum.

- If regular lanes are under-utilized, the "coercion factor"
  disappears and those who discover that car pooling adds 10-40
  minutes a day to their commute (waiting at the rendezvous locations)
  will often opt for being a single driver and the gas savings from
  the HOV lane is never realized.

- If regular lanes are over-utilized and HOV lanes under-utilized and
  there simply is not enough people who can carpool, the gas saving
  from HOV lanes and carpools is likely to not be realized,
  especially when huge stop-and-go backups in the regular lanes exist,
  as gas is also wasted this way in huge quantities.

- If both regular lanes and HOV lanes are over-utilized and backups
  occur, then the "coercion factor" will also disappear as people find
  that car pooling is giving them no advantage, and that the added
  time waiting at rendezvous locations is just not worth it, and
  furthermore, governments who simply opted for one HOV lane
  and no additional regular lanes have flubbed it.

It seems highly improbable that HOV lanes can be successful more than
rarely, based on the above criteria.