Re: Russian mathematics (was: Re: Aggressive Driving)

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Article #1356

#1356

From: Rmoburg
Date: Sat, 04 Jul 1998 00:00

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On Sat, 04 Jul 1998 08:53:26 -0400, DPH <rally2xs@pop.site1.csi.com>
wrote:

>
>
>John Miles wrote:
>
>> DPH wrote:
>> >
>> > E. Faubion wrote:
>> >
>> > > Russian Roulette can be played safely.
>> >
>> > You have a very high threshold for safe.  The first time you pull the trigger, you have a
>> > 1 in 6 chance of dying.  The second time you have 1 - (5/6) squared chance.  The next time
>> > is 1 - (5/6) cubed.  etc.  That's if the cylinder is spun each time.  Those are way too
>> > poor odds for me to consider something safe.
>> >
>>
>> OK, I'll bite.  How in the world are you arriving at that figure?
>>
>> In Russian roulette, the odds of dying (or blowing a hole in your head,
>> which is not necessarily the same thing) are exactly 1 in 6 each time
>> you pull the trigger.  The number of times you've pulled the trigger on
>> an empty cylinder has absolutely no influence on the odds in any
>> subsequent trial.
>
>If you do 1 in 6 multiple times, the odds of surviving the entire sequence go down in the
>mathematical manner described.  That is, if the cylinder is spun in between each pull of the
>trigger.  If it is not, the odds become even worse, with the 6th pull of the trigger at 0%
>chance of not having the firearm discharge.
>


The exposure becomes greater. But the odds at each incident, (with a
"spin" between trigger pulls) is exactly the same .. 1 in 6.

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From: rmoburg@sickofspam.interaccess.com (Rmoburg)
Subject: Re: Russian mathematics (was: Re: Aggressive Driving)
Date: 1998/07/04
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