🚀 go-pugleaf

On 11 Nov 1998 10:25:39 GMT, Rahul Dhesi <c.c.eiftj@22.usenet.us.com> wrote:
>In <slrn74i8mf.hq.joel-garry@home.com> joel-garry@nospam.home.com (Joel
>Garry) writes:
>
>>Yes, I believe he has posted previously that most accidents happen during
>>lane changes, confusing correlation with causality, the same confusion
>>others make about speed.
>
>The correlation vs causation confusion is often seen on Usenet, but
>this is not an example of it.  In fact there *is* a cause-effect
>relationship between speed and accident rate, and also between
>lane changes and accident rate.  Perhaps what you intended to say
>was that speed and lane changes are only indirect causes, not
>direct causes, of higher accident rates.

No, I didn't.  But whatever.

>
>Cigarrette smoking and early death are another example of indirect
>causation.  Not every person who smokes will die early, but this doesn't
>mean that anybody is confusing between causation and correlation.

Smoke cigarettes, get cancer, die.  It's only indirect because you left
out the direct cause of death.  It's been well-established that a certain
percentage of the populace at a certain dosage level will cause an expected
amount of disease.  This is a much higher percentage than anything wrt
lane changes.

>
>Motorists that try to travel faster than the normal flow of traffic will
>need to make more lane changes, so the cause-effect chain is really:
>
>   higher speeds cause more lane changes,
>   more lane changes cause more accidents
>
>So the cause-effect relationship between more lane changes and
>accident rate is more direct (though still indirect).

I'm afraid I don't see the justification that more lane changes cause more
accidents to the extent that there should be a law against it.  I don't 
think many others do either.  Much better to simply be cognizant of your
surroundings and act accordingly.

>-- 
>Rahul Dhesi <dhesi@spams.r.us.com>
>a2i communications, a quality ISP
>    "Any idiot can avoid automobile accidents that are his own fault.  It
>     takes skill to avoid accidents that are the *other* person's fault."

jg
-- 
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