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Article #2140

Re: figures for gun-fetiscists

#2140
From: Marcus J Ranum
Date: Thu, 11 Mar 1993 21:26
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>Trying to 
>divine the "evilness" of a firearm is difficult at best; some say that any gun
>thats black is evil; some contend that small is evil; others yet contend that
>high capacity (or the potential) is evil; its a subjective, elastic line thats
>doomed to failure and abuse.  

	Yep, it sure is.

	The problem is maintaining a just system while using subjective
experience meaningfully. There *are* some correlations in human behavior
but they are never absolute. You want to protect people, and still give
them liberty - two things that are directly in opposition.

	For example, if I go to a liquor store and buy a bottle of
vintage sandeman port for $65/bottle, the guy at the counter, and
most other folks, are not going to expect me to sneak into the alley
and chug half of it. Why? It's an expensive vintage that is not
usually *used* to just get hammered. On the other hand, if I come in
and buy 2 bottles of mad-dog 20/20, you probably have a reasonable
basis to assume I am not taking it to serve my friends with dinner.
I *might* be doing either, but it's contrary to the common experience.

	That's where the idea of good/bad guns comes from. Not many
serious hunters hunt with a Tec-9. Not many drug dealers carry
Sako hunting rifles with Unertl optics. Often, stereotypes are based
on reality to some degree, with the usual standard deviations
applying. Whether it's accurate, OR NOT, these kinds of statistics
affect our lives every day. I live in the city. My car insurance
is *MUCH* higher, based on actuarial statistics. That means that I
am paying more because the past has indicated that there is a higher
correlation between my living in the city and having expensive
auto wrecks. Makes no sense, but those are the statistics.

	I could probably use actuarial statistics to make a *VERY*
strong argument that the largest factor in gun related crimes is
that the guns not be expensive collectors items!!! Wanna bet? Based
on that perfectly valid statistic in a bogus context, I could push
for legislation for minimum gun prices!!

	The problem with the "lie with stats" war is that all
information finally becomes questionable. HCI and NRA both twist
the facts to their highly polarized ends. We need to be reasonable
and we need to be rational.

	An earlier poster asked something about whether it is a
real fact that banning guns would reduce gun related crime. I
answered, "yes" because I am sure there would be strong statistical
evidence. It might not *mean* anything, though. We aren't going to
solve the problems in our society by attacking just ONE axis of
a problem in many variables. Gun ownership is not the only problem.
Media glorifying violence is another part of the problem. A swamped
legal system is another part of the problem. Lack of a consistent
justice policy is another problem. You can't have a legal deterrent
if the person you are trying to deter has nothing to lose.

	It's all very frustrating.

mjr.
-- 
        Failure science requires intelligence. Any goddamn fool can shoot
his foot off, but doing it with common kitchen ingredients, while attempting
to make a cake, is very difficult.
						-Failure Science
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From: mjr@tis.com (Marcus J Ranum)
Newsgroups: dc.talk.guns
Subject: Re: figures for gun-fetiscists
Date: 11 Mar 1993 21:26:28 GMT
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