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                         START Web Site News

January 24, 1999

Secretary of the State Madeleine Albright and Secretary of Defense
William Cohen unequivocally pledged for support of development and
deployment of a national missile defense system prohibited by existing
ABM treaty. In particular, Cohen said the administration intends to
open negotiations with Moscow on ways of amending the treaty to allow
the United States to deploy missile defenses now in development.
However, if the Russians refused to amend the treaty, he made clear:
"...Then we have the option of our national interest indicating we
would simply pull out of the treaty..."

          Cohen Says U.S. Will Build Missile Defense Weapon to Be
          Pursued Despite '72 ABM Treaty (by Dana Priest, The
          Washington Post, Thursday, January 21, 1999; Page A01)

          Arms Control Treaty May Be Amended (by Robert Burns,
          Associated Press, Thursday, January 21, 1999; 2:12 p.m. EST)

A week ago president Bill Clinton wrote to Russian President Boris
Yeltsin outlining his plans to develop and test a national missile
defense system,

          U.S. Asking Russia to Ease the Pact on Missile Defense, (by
          Steven Lee Myers, The New York Times, January 21, 1999)

          Clinton Wrote Yeltsin about U.S. Missile Defense System (by
          Agence France Presse, Russia Today, January 21, 1998)

Russian president's administration indicated, that the U.S. proposals
were being studied. However, the reaction of Igor Ivanov, Foreign
Minister and Colonel-General Leonid Ivashov, head of the Defense
Ministry's Main Department for Military Cooperation, was sharp and
very negative.

          Missile Plan No Threat to Russia (By Robert Burns, Friday,
          January 22, 1999; 1:24 a.m. EST)

          Russia Is Silent, but Unhappy, About U.S. Proposal on
          Missiles, (by Michael Wines, The New York Times, January 22,
          1999)

          Washington Openly Challenges Moscow In Its Attempt To Create
          Unipolar World - in Russian, (by Dmitry Gornostayev and
          Vadim Solovyov, Nezavisimaya Gazeta, January 22, 1999, p. 1)

          Russia Objects to US Treaty Change (by By Anna Dolgov,
          Thursday, January 21, 1999; 9:12 p.m. EST)

          American Missiles Ricochet Off Iraq Towards START-2 (by
          Vadim Solovyov, Nezavisimaya Gazeta, January 21, 1999, pp.
          1, 3)

Russian arms control experts have no doubt, that the U.S.
administration's move will undoubtedly provoke a negative reaction of
the State Duma to the START II Treaty. In particular, Paul Podvig, a
researcher of our Center, said in an interview to The Washington Post,
that draft legislation in the Duma to accompany the START II
ratification already stipulates that the United States must stick by
the ABM Treaty. "It will be very difficult to get START II ratified if
the United States is serious about changing the ABM Treaty," he said
(Russia Says START II Is Imperiled, by David Hoffman, The Washington
Post, Friday, January 22, 1999; Page A16).

Reaction of the U.S. arms control experts is also notable. Even some
supporters of missile defense find the recent steps of the
administration clumsy:

          Pentagon Debates Arms Treaty Changes, (by Walter Pincus, The
          Washington Post, Friday, January 22, 1999; Page A16)

          Moving to Missile Defense (The Washington Post, Friday,
          January 22, 1999; Page A34)

A comment by Thomas Friedman is particularly deserves an attention
(The Grand Bargain, by Thomas L. Friedman, The New York Times, January
22, 1999).

Secretary of State Madeleine K. Albright is arriving in Moscow for a
two-day visit at the start of next week in order to discuss the U.S.
proposals in detail (Official to find chilly reception on Russian
visit, by Martin Sieff and Jasminka Skrlec, The Washington Times,
January 22, 1999). Can the U.S. and Russia make a deal satisfactory to
both sides? At least three options are considered in public media:

          The U.S. will support Russia in getting new IMF credits in
          exchange to modifications of the ABM treaty (Moscow Will
          Have to Ask Money for Missiles from the IMF, by Alexander
          Koretzki, Segodnia, January 22, 1999, p. 1)

          A new START III treaty will allow Russia to deploy a new
          strategic missile with up to three warheads if, in return,
          Moscow does not object to U.S. plans to build a limited
          national missile defense system at two sites with up to 200
          launchers (Pentagon Debates Arms Treaty Changes, by Walter
          Pincus, The Washington Post, Friday, January 22, 1999; Page
          A16).

          Grigori Yavlinski suggested, that any new U.S. anti-missile
          defense should include Europe and Russia (Russia Opposes
          Reworking ABM Treaty, by Reuters, Russia Today, January 22,
          1998).

Perhaps, other options are also on the table. The problem, however, is
that none of these options are capable to provide with tools to
preserve stability in the world and non-proliferation regime, if the
U.S. insist on missile defense development. If the U.S. position
remains rigid, it will be impossible to persuade other counties, that
nuclear states are going to get rid of their nuclear arsenals. By the
way, the official reaction of China was prompt: "...To develop, deploy
and transfer anti-missile systems does not promote security and stop
missile proliferation,...on the contrary, it will harm security and
stimulate missile proliferation,..." Foreign Ministry spokesman Sun
Yuxi said

          Missile Plan Puts U.S. in Quandary on China, by Elizabeth
          Becker, The New York Times, January 22, 1999).

          US missile systems violating agreements, (China Daily,
          January 22, 1999)

Other notable publications include:

          Discussions Damaging Security, (by Alexander Lebed,
          Nezavisimaya Gazeta, January 21, 1999, p. 3) - Governor of
          Krasnoyarsk region suggested that Russia would reject START
          II, but negotiate a new START III treaty.

          The U.S. Make Use of Weakness of Russia -in Russian, (by
          Alexei Arbatov, Moskovskiye Novosti, N 2 (970), January 17 -
          24, 1999)

          A Nuclear Criminal Fund (by Oleg Lurye, Secret Policy, N 2,
          January 19-25, 1999. p. 6) - Yevgeni Adamov, the Minister of
          Minatom, is blamed in connections with criminal mafia.

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