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>Path: infoac!unido!fauern!ira.uka.de!sol.ctr.columbia.edu!emory!swrinde!zaphod.mps.ohio-state.edu!casbah.acns.nwu.edu!ucsd!news-mail-gateway
>From: oler@HG.ULeth.CA (CARY OLER)
>Newsgroups: rec.radio.amateur.misc
>Subject: POTENTIAL MAJOR SOLAR FLARE WARNING
>Message-ID: <910414021759.23e046ef@HG.ULeth.CA>
>Date: 14 Apr 91 08:17:59 GMT
>Sender: root@ucsd.Edu
>Organization: UCSD Usenet Gateway
>Lines: 45


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                     POTENTIAL MAJOR FLARE WARNING

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                            April 14, 1991


ATTENTION:

     Region 6583 has developed a beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration and
is continuing to grow in size and complexity.  Some fairly good shear also
exists in this region, which has resulted in several M-class flares over the
last couple of days.  This region (located at N09E34) is now moderately
large, and contains 57 spots in an EKI optical configuration.  This region
could spawn a major class M or X flare anytime now.  It could also produce
frequent low level M-class flares.  Potential proton activity from this
region is not yet a great threat, although the risk is increasing daily
should a major proton flare erupt from this region.

     Region 6580 (N29W10) has also developed a clear delta configuration in
its spot complex, and is also exhibiting growth and increased complexity.
This region is capable of spawning low-level M-class flares and may become
capable of producing more intense major activity soon, if growth continues.

     Region 6555 (the major activity center responsible for seven large
X-class flares and the major geomagnetic storm of 24-26 March) is showing
signs of returning back into view on the east limb.  Surging was observed on
the southeast limb near 12 degrees south solar latitude.  Extensive plage is
also visible in that vicinity.

     An optically uncorrelated class M3.1 x-ray burst was observed beginning
at 08:41 UT, peaking at 08:52 UT and ending at 10:07 UT.  This long-duration
event could have been produced by returning Region 6555 (which will be given
a new number shortly).  We should know within the next 48 hours whether this
region has decayed significantly or not since it disappeared from view around
the west limb on 31 March.

     Watch for possible major flare alerts.


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