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>From: oler@HG.ULeth.CA (CARY OLER)
>Newsgroups: rec.radio.amateur.misc
>Subject: MAJOR GEOMAGNETIC STORM UPDATE - 06 JUNE
>Message-ID: <910605232747.21c01f4b@HG.ULeth.CA>
>Date: 6 Jun 91 05:27:47 GMT
>Sender: daemon@ucsd.Edu
>Organization: UCSD Usenet Gateway
>Lines: 73


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                            GEOMAGNETIC STORM UPDATE

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                               05:00 UT, 06 June

                                 -------------


STORM UPDATE INFORMATION:

     Geomagnetic storming is continuing at major to severe storm levels.
The intensity of the storming has decreased slightly over the past six hours,
although major to severe geomagnetic storming is expected to continue for the
next 12 to 18 hours.  Thereafter, some additional decay in activity can be
expected.

     However, the most recent major flare (class X12+/3B event) was
associated with major Type II and IV sweeps, and is expected to produce an
additional strong interplanetary shock sometime after 03:00 UT on 07 June.
The activity associated with this event is expected to cause storm activity
to reintensify to major to severe storm levels.  Conditions do not look good
for the rest of this week and possibly even the early part of next week.
Region 6659 is expected to continue to spawn major flares for the next three
days at least.  And with each passing day, this region will continue to move
into a better position for inflicting high terrestrial impacts.

     The most recent major flare is expected to produce another PCA
enhancement.  Absorption levels should pass PCA event thresholds.  Polar and
high latitudes are warned to expect continued proton-related anomalies over
the coming week.

     HF propagation conditions have been fair to extremely poor.  Blackout
conditions have been observed over many regions, particularly over the higher
latitudes.  Polar cap absorption associated with continuing proton activity
has also degraded polar and high latitude signal propagation on the HF bands.
Errors do exist on polar and high latitude navigational paths.

     Extensive VHF auroral backscatter openings have been possible on a
global basis over the past 24 hours.  Conditions have been very favorable for
unusual VHF scatter propagation.  These conditions are expected to continue
for at least the next 12 hours.  On 07 and 08 June, conditions should again
become very favorable for VHF scatter propagation as storm conditions
intensify.

     Auroral activity has been high to extremely high.  Low latitude auroral
observations have been widely possible over the past 24 hours and are
expected to continue to be possible over the next 12 to 18 hours.  Auroral
activity could again be observed over the lower latitudes on the evening of
07/08 June.  Frequent sightings may be possible over the next week to 10 days
as Region 6659 continues to produce potent major flaring and possibly high
terrestrial impacts.  Todays most recent major class X12+/3B event could
produce levels of auroral activity sufficient to be observed from Florida.
Sightings of auroral activity from Hawaii may become possible over the coming
week if very powerful solar flaring continues.

     A short PCA event was observed on 04/05 June.  The event began at 15:20
UT on 04 June and ended around 09:00 UT on 05 June.  Absorption levels are
still above normal (presently running at around 1.2 dB) and will remain above
normal over the next 24 hours.  10 MeV protons are presently hovering near 90
pfu.

     Protons are expected to become enhanced once again as we feel a proton
impact from the most recent major flare.  Levels are expected to reach 3,600
to 3,700 pfu.

     Another update will be posted later this UT day.


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