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>From: oler@HG.ULeth.CA (CARY OLER)
>Newsgroups: rec.radio.amateur.misc
>Subject: SIGNIFICANT SOLAR FLARE ALERT - 09 JUNE - IMPACT EXPECTED
>Message-ID: <910608224711.27200256@HG.ULeth.CA>
>Date: 9 Jun 91 04:47:11 GMT
>Sender: daemon@ucsd.Edu
>Organization: UCSD Usenet Gateway
>Lines: 52


                        --  MAJOR SOLAR FLARE ALERT  --

                                 JUNE 09, 1991

                              Flare Event Summary
                          Potential Impact Assessment


                                    --------



MAJOR ENERGETIC EVENT SUMMARY

     A major class X12+/3B flare erupted from Region 6659 (N31E06) at 01:43
UT on 09 June.  The event saturated the GOES sensors for approximately three
to four minutes before beginning a very slow decay.  This LDE event has not
yet terminated (x-rays are slowly decaying and are presently near class M2.3
levels).  The flare began at 01:34 UT, peaked at 01:43 UT and should end
sometime near or after 04:45 UT.

     A moderate intensity Type II sweep and a major Type IV continuum burst
have been observed from this energetic event.  The integrated x-ray flux of
this event was high, at greater than approximately 1.31 (preliminary
estimate).  The location of this event was almost directly on the central
solar meridian, at N31E01.

     Region 6659 is continuing to experience growth and increasing
complexity.  An additional delta configuration has materialized in this
region, which continues to exhibit very strong magnetic fields, high shear,
and significant magnetic gradients.


POTENTIAL TERRESTRIAL IMPACT ASSESSMENT

     This major flare is well placed for producing high terrestrial impacts.
Preliminary analysis indicates minor to major geomagnetic storming can
probably be expected near midday (12:00 UT) on 10 June.  There is also a
moderately high risk for severe geomagnetic storming from this event.

     A satellite proton enhancement is possible from this latest event.
Protons may arrive between 07:00 UT and 09:00 UT on 09 June.  Models suggest
that protons in the greater than 10 MeV band may reach or possibly exceed
1,500 pfu at that time.

     Further major flaring (X-class and possible proton flaring) is expected
from Region 6659 over the next three to seven days.  White light flares may
also be possible.


**  End of Alert  **