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>Path: infoac!unido!fauern!ira.uka.de!sol.ctr.columbia.edu!ucselx!ucsd!news-mail-gateway
>From: oler@HG.ULeth.CA (CARY OLER)
>Newsgroups: rec.radio.amateur.misc
>Subject: MAJOR SOLAR FLARE ALERT - 10 JUNE
>Message-ID: <910610121012.2720072a@HG.ULeth.CA>
>Date: 10 Jun 91 18:10:12 GMT
>Sender: daemon@ucsd.Edu
>Organization: UCSD Usenet Gateway
>Lines: 48


                        --  MAJOR SOLAR FLARE ALERT  --

                                 JUNE 10, 1991

                              Flare Event Summary
                          Potential Impact Assessment


                                    --------



MAJOR ENERGETIC EVENT SUMMARY

     A major class M6.4/1N flare occurred at 13:58 UT on 10 June.  The flare
was located at N32W14 and was associated with fairly strong initial radio
bursts.  A Type II sweep was observed from this event, but does not appear to
be associated with a Type IV.  This event was rather impulsive.  The event
began at 13:51 UT, peaked at 13:58 UT and ended at 14:13 UT.

     Region 6659 continues to pose a major threat.  Solar activity from this
region has been high over the past 24 hours.  A significant flurry of M-class
flare activity has developed and is expected to continue for the next 24
hours.


POTENTIAL TERRESTRIAL IMPACT ASSESSMENT

     This last major class M6.4/1N flare is not expected to have a
significant terrestrial impact.  A light to possibly moderate impact is
possible, but will probably be confined to the "low" category if an impact
materializes at all.

     Proton levels are currently running between 60 and 80 pfu at greater
than 10 MeV.  PCA has also increased over the past several hours, although
this increase is expected to be only temporary (barring a major proton
flare).  There is an approximate 50% chance for a significant proton flare
over the next 24 to 72 hours.

     Solar activity will remain high.  M-class flaring and isolated major
X-class flares are possible and are expected over the next three days from
Region 6659.  Terrestrial impacts could be high given further major flares.
High-energy events are possible from this region.  White light flares may
also be possible.


**  End of Alert  **
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