🚀 go-pugleaf

From: oler@HG.ULeth.CA (CARY OLER)
Date: 4 Mar 91 07:31:41 GMT
Newsgroups: rec.radio.amateur.misc
Subject: SOLAR TERRESTRIAL FORECAST AND REVIEW

/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

Please note that the address for the Solar Terrestrial Dispatch has
changed slightly.  It used to be "std_oler@hg.uleth.ca".  It is now
"oler@hg.uleth.ca".  Please note this change and send any future comments
or questions to "oler@hg.uleth.ca".  We will soon have a direct line into
UseNet.  When this becomes operational, reports will be relayed directly
to the newsgroup "sci.astro" (as so many of you have requested), in addition
to the numerous other groups and lists currently being serviced.

/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\


                ---  SOLAR TERRESTRIAL FORECAST AND REVIEW  ---
                          March 02 to March 05, 1991

                Report Based In-Part from Data Obtained from the
                       Space Environment Services Center
                               Boulder Colorado

                                   --------


SOLAR TERRESTRIAL REVIEW FOR 24 FEBRUARY TO 02 MARCH

     Solar activity ranged from low to high.  Generally, activity has
remained confined to low levels.  The only major exception was 25 February
when a major class X1.2/2N Tenflare erupted from Region 6497.  This flare was
associated with strong Type II, III and IV bursts and produced a small
satellite-level proton event at 12:10 UT on 25 February.  Protons peaked at
13 p.f.u. at greater than 10 MeV on 25 February at 13:05 UT.  The event then
ended shortly thereafter at 13:35 UT.  The location of this flare was near the
western limb, at S16W80.  The event was an impulsive long-duration type.  The
event began at 08:06 UT, peaked at 08:19 UT and ended at 09:51 UT on 25
February.  The flare produced an interplanetary shockwave that reached the
Earth on 28 February.  Sudden magnetic impulses were observed early on 28
February which were followed by increased geomagnetic activity.  Activity
remained generally unsettled, with periods of minor storming being observed
over many high latitude locations.  Some brief periods of high latitude major
storming were also observed.  Middle latitudes remained generally unsettled
with a few periods of active conditions.

     Activity since then has remained generally low with a few low level
M-class flares observed.  A class M2.0/2B flare occurred from Region 6514 at
04:56 UT on 01 March.  This flare was accompanied by a weak Type II sweep and
minor radio emissions.  It was, however, a long-duration event, lasting 62
minutes.  This event was associated with a weak SWF.

     The most recent M-class flares occurred on 02 March.  The first event
occurred at 13:49 UT and attained a class M1.1 x-ray rating.  The most recent
flare was rated a class M1.8 x-ray event and was of very long duration (162
minutes).  Both of these events were optically uncorrelated, but their
signatures indicate that they probably did originate beyond either the east
or west limb.  Neither of the limbs exhibited any activity at the time of
these flares, so it is uncertain which limb produced the events.  Several
regions are due to return around the east limb over the next 48 hours which
could be responsible.  Likewise, there are several regions beyond the west
limb which could have been responsible for these events.  At any rate, the
latter long-duration flare produced a Type II sweep and was associated with
an 850 s.f.u. Tenflare which began at 13:46 UT and lasted 10 minutes.

     The most active geomagnetic day of the period occurred on 28 February.
Activity remained mostly unsettled to active.  The cause of the activity was
the X-class flare of 25 February.  Since then, activity has remained
generally unsettled.

     Auroral activity became moderate to high over many high latitude
regions on 28 February.  Some periods of moderate activity were observed over
some middle latitude areas, but overall, activity remained generally low to
moderate.  The most intense activity remained confined to the auroral zone
over the high latitude regions.

     HF propagation conditions ranged from above normal near the beginning of
the week, to normal.  Below normal conditions existed over the middle and
high latitudes on 28 February.  Activity has since returned to normal over
all latitudes and regions.  MUF's have begun declining with the recent
decrease in the solar indices.

     VHF propagation remained normal throughout the period.  Some isolated
auroral backscatter communications may have been possible over the northerly
middle and high latitudes on 28 February.  Openings on 6 meters were possible
(and reported) over many areas over the past two weeks, due to the high
levels of the solar indices.  Overall, MUF's for stable DX ranged from near
30 MHz to over 50 MHz.


SHORT TERM SOLAR TERRESTRIAL FORECAST

     Solar activity is on the decline again.  Solar indices have dropped over
the past week.  Further drops in the indices are expected over the next week
(barring the return of any unusually active regions).  No major flaring is
anticipated over the next week.  M-class flaring is also expected to remain
fairly dormant over the coming week.  The background x-ray flux should drop
to near the C1.0 level or the high B-class levels.  Sunspot numbers are
currently hovering near 210.  They will drop over the next 72 hours to the
range near the 150-175.

     Geomagnetic activity will remain mostly unsettled to quiet over the next
week.  As we near the vernal equinox, a slight increase in the background
magnetic activity will likely occur.  An increase to generally unsettled to
active levels is possible between 07 and 09 March, in response to possible
recurrent coronal activity.

     Auroral activity should remain dormant over the middle and low
latitudes.  High latitudes could experience occasionally frequent periods of
low auroral activity as we near the vernal equinox.  Activity should become
generally low to moderate over the higher latitudes between 07 and 09 March,
again in response to recurrent solar coronal activity.

     HF propagation conditions will remain normal thorughout the week.  DX
will remain possible over the high HF frequencies.  MUF's should drop to
values between 34 MHz and 42 MHz by the end of the week (barring the return
of any abnormally active solar regions).  No significant SID's or SWF's are
anticipated.  High latitude noise levels could be higher than normal over the
coming weeks due to possible increases in the background magnetic activity.

     VHF conditions will remain normal.  No significant opportunities for
DX are expected, although the lower frequencies near 6 meters remain the best
choices for experiencing potential DX during the sunlit periods.  DX on 6
meters should become very isolated and infrequent as the week progresses.
However, occasional isolated sporadic E could provide brief conditions
suitable for DX on 6 meters.


SUMMARY OF ALL ACTIVE REGIONS VISIBLE ON THE SOLAR DISK AS OF 03 MARCH

Region #   Location   LO   Area   Class   LL    Spots     Magnetic Type
--------   --------  ---   ----   -----   --    -----     -------------
  6508      S14W78   187   1200    DAO    08     018      BETA
  6509      S22W82   191   3120    EKO    11     011      BETA
  6514      N21W67   176   0000    AXX    02     002      ALPHA
  6516      S06W48   157   0360    CAO    08     007      BETA
  6518      S15W27   136   0000    AXX    00     001      ALPHA
  6521      S11W75   184   0060    CRO    03     004      BETA
  6522      N28W64   173   0030    BXO    04     004      BETA
  6523      N04W15   124   0750    DAO    08     020      BETA
  6524      S11W39   148   0030    BXO    04     002      BETA
  6525      S17W28   137   0030    BXO    04     003      BETA
  6528      S11W59   168   0000    AXX    01     002      ALPHA
  6529      N10W14   123   0030    BXO    03     003      BETA
  6530      N11E73   036   0150    DAO    06     003      BETA

NOTES:  Area is in million square kilometers.  Angular extent (LL) and solar
longitude (LO) are in degree's.  For more information regarding the terminology
used above, request the Glossary of Solar Terrestrial Terms from:
"oler@hg.uleth.ca".


H-ALPHA PLAGES WITHOUT SPOTS.  LOCATIONS VALID AS OF 00:00 UT ON 03 MARCH

REGION           LOCATION            LO             COMMENTS (IF ANY)
------           --------            ---      -------------------------------
 6513             N17W83             192                   NONE
 6520             N18W18             127
 6526             S16W44             153
 6527             S17W06             115


ACTIVE REGIONS DUE TO RETURN BETWEEN 03 MARCH AND 05 MARCH

Region   Latitude  Longitude (Helio.)
------   --------  ---------
 6487      N14        011
 6492      S12        013
 6488      S14        341
 6501      S10        349
 6502      S13        352
 6511      S23        346

NOTES:  For definitions regarding the above, request the "Glossary of Solar
        Terrestrial Terms" from "oler@hg.uleth.ca".


GRAPHICAL ANALYSIS OF RECENT PLANETARY (GLOBAL) GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY

                  Cumulative Geomagnetic Activity History
        Peak Planetary Geomagnetic Activity during the past 96 hours
     ____________________________________________________________________
    |  EXTREMELY SEVERE |        |        |        |        | VERY HIGH! |
    | VERY SEVERE STORM |        |        |        |        | HIGH       |
    |      SEVERE STORM |        |        |        |        | MODERATE   |
    |       MAJOR STORM |        |        |        |        | LOW - MOD. |
    |       MINOR STORM |        |        |        |        | LOW        |
    |       VERY ACTIVE |        |        |  *     |        | NONE       |
    |            ACTIVE |   *    |   *  * |******* |*   **  | NONE       |
    |         UNSETTLED |******* |   *****|********|** *****| NONE       |
    |             QUIET |********|********|********|********| NONE       |
    |        VERY QUIET |********|********|********|********| NONE       |
    |-------------------|--------|--------|--------|--------|------------|
    | Geomagnetic Field |  Wed.  |  Thu.  |  Fri.  |  Sat.  |  Anomaly   |
    |    Conditions     |     Given in 3-hour intervals     | Intensity  |
    |____________________________________________________________________|

NOTES:
       The data above represents planetary geomagnetic activity.  Data from
many magnetic observatories around the world are used in constructing the
above chart.  The first graph line for each day represents geomagnetic
activity which occurred between 00 UT and 03 UT.  The second graph line
represents activity which occurred between 03 UT and 06 UT, etc.  For
information regarding the interpretation and/or use of these charts, send
a request for the document "Understanding Solar Terrestrial Reports" to:
oler@hg.uleth.ca.


PLANETARY 10-DAY GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY OUTLOOK (03 MARCH - 12 MARCH)

    ________________________________________________________________________
   |  EXTREMELY SEVERE |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   | VERY HIGH! |
   | VERY SEVERE STORM |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   | HIGH       |
   |      SEVERE STORM |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   | MODERATE   |
   |       MAJOR STORM |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   | LOW - MOD. |
   |       MINOR STORM |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   | LOW        |
   |       VERY ACTIVE |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   | NONE       |
   |            ACTIVE |   |   |   |   | * |   |   |   |   |   | NONE       |
   |         UNSETTLED |** |** |** |***|***|***|** | * | * |***| NONE       |
   |             QUIET |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***| NONE       |
   |        VERY QUIET |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***| NONE       |
   |-------------------|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|------------|
   | Geomagnetic Field |Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue|  Anomaly   |
   |    Conditions     |       Given in 8-hour intervals       | Intensity  |
   |________________________________________________________________________|

                            CONFIDENCE LEVEL: 75%

NOTES:
       Predicted geomagnetic activity is based heavily on recurrent phenomena.
Transient energetic solar events cannot be predicted reliably over periods in
excess of several days.  Hence, there may be some deviations from the
predictions due to the unpredictable transient solar component.


GRAPHICAL ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVITY OVER THE PAST 60 DAYS

                   Cumulative Graphical Analysis of
                           Solar Activity
    ____________________________________________________________
377|                                                            | V.HIGH
363|                            F                               | V.HIGH
348|                           *FF                              | V.HIGH
334|                           *FF                              | V.HIGH
320|                          **FF                              | V.HIGH
306|                          **FF*                     **F     | V.HIGH
291|                         F**FF**                  ****F     | HIGH
277|                        *F**FF**                 *****F     | HIGH
263|                       F*F**FF***              *******F*    | HIGH
249|                       F*F**FF***              *******F**   | MOD.
234|                      *F*F**FF***F             *******F**   | MOD.
220|         *          ***F*F**FF***F*            *******F***  | MOD.
206|       *****   F    ***F*F**FF***F* F        *********F*****| MOD.
192|      ******* *F*******F*F**FF***F**FF      **********F*****| MOD.
177|**  ***********F*******F*F**FF***F**FF* **************F*****| LOW
163|***************F*******F*F**FF***F**FF****************F*****| LOW
    ------------------------------------------------------------
               Cumulative 60 day Solar Activity Record
                   Start Date:  January 1, 1991

NOTES:
       Left-hand column digits represent the 10.7 cm solar radio flux obtained
from Ottawa.  The right-hand column describes the relative solar activity for
that period based on the average number of major and minor flares that can be
expected for related solar flux values.  Plot lines labeled with the letter "F"
represent days where at least one major flare occurred (ie. class M5 or greater
flare).


GRAPHICAL 20-DAY SOLAR ACTIVITY PREDICTION

                           Solar Activity
 _________________________________________________________________
| 284 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| 275 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |**|**|**|  |
| 266 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |**|  |  |  |**|
| 257 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| 248 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |**|  |  |  |  |  |
| 240 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |**|  |  |  |  |  |  |
| 231 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| 222 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |**|  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| 213 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| 204 |**|  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |**|  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| 195 |  |**|  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| 187 |  |  |**|**|  |  |  |  |  |  |**|  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| 178 |  |  |  |  |**|**|  |  |**|**|  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| 169 |  |  |  |  |  |  |**|**|  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
|-----|--|--|--|--|--|--|--|--|--|--|--|--|--|--|--|--|--|--|--|--|
|Solar|03|04|05|06|07|08|09|10|11|12|13|14|15|16|17|18|19|20|21|22|
|Flux |                          March                            |
 -----------------------------------------------------------------

                      CONFIDENCE LEVEL: 60%


HF RADIO SIGNAL PROPAGATION PREDICTIONS (03 MARCH - 12 MARCH)

                              High Latitude Paths
            ________________________________________________________
           | EXTREMELY GOOD |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
           |      VERY GOOD |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
CONFIDENCE |           GOOD |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
  LEVEL    |           FAIR |***|***|***|* *|   |   |  *|* *|***|***|
 -------   |           POOR |   |   |   | * |***|***|** | * |   |   |
   75%     |      VERY POOR |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
           | EXTREMELY POOR |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
           |----------------|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
           |  PROPAGATION   |Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue|
           |    QUALITY     |     Given in 8-Hour UT Intervals      |
            --------------------------------------------------------

                             Middle Latitude Paths
            ________________________________________________________
           | EXTREMELY GOOD |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
           |      VERY GOOD |***|***|***|* *|  *|   |  *|* *|***|* *|
CONFIDENCE |           GOOD |   |   |   | * |** |***|** | * |   | * |
  LEVEL    |           FAIR |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
 -------   |           POOR |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
   75%     |      VERY POOR |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
           | EXTREMELY POOR |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
           |----------------|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
           |  PROPAGATION   |Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue|
           |    QUALITY     |     Given in 8-Hour UT Intervals      |
            --------------------------------------------------------

                                Low Latitude Paths
            ________________________________________________________
           | EXTREMELY GOOD |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
           |      VERY GOOD |***|***|***|* *|  *|  *|* *|***|***|* *|
CONFIDENCE |           GOOD |   |   |   | * |** |** | * |   |   | * |
  LEVEL    |           FAIR |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
 -------   |           POOR |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
   80%     |      VERY POOR |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
           | EXTREMELY POOR |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
           |----------------|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
           |  PROPAGATION   |Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue|
           |    QUALITY     |     Given in 8-Hour UT Intervals      |
            --------------------------------------------------------

NOTES:
       High latitudes >= 55       degree's north latitude
     Middle latitudes >= 40 < 55  degree's north latitude
        Low latitudes  < 40       degree's north latitude



POTENTIAL VHF DX PROPAGATION PREDICTIONS (03 MARCH - 12 MARCH)
   INCLUDES SID AND AURORAL BACKSCATTER ENHANCEMENT PREDICTIONS

                   HIGH LATITUDES
 __________________________________________________      ___________________
|  SIGNAL  | Given in 8 hour local time intervals  |    |  SID ENHANCEMENT  |
| QUALITY  |Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue|    |S|M|T|W|T|F|S|S|M|T|
|__________|___|___|___|___|___|___|___|___|___|___|    |-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|
| VERY GOOD|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |  0%|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|
|ABOVE NORM|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   | 20%| | | | | | | | |*|*|
|    NORMAL|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***| 40%| | | | | | | | | | |
|BELOW NORM|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   | 60%| | | | | | | | | | |
| VERY POOR|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   | 80%| | | | | | | | | | |
|  BLACKOUT|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |100%| | | | | | | | | | |
|==========|===|===|===|===|===|===|===|===|===|===|    |-------------------|
|     100% |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |100%| | | | | | | | | | |
|      80% |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   | 80%| | | | | | | | | | |
|      60% |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   | 60%| | | | | | | | | | |
|      40% |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   | 40%| | | | | | | | | | |
|      20% |   |   |   |   |* *|* *|   |   | * | * | 20%| | | | |*|*|*| | | |
|       0% |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|  0%|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|
|----------+---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|    |-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|
|CHANCE OF |Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue|    |S|M|T|W|T|F|S|S|M|T|
|  VHF DX  | Given in 8 hour local time intervals  |    |AURORAL BACKSCATTER|
|__________|_______________________________________|    |___________________|


                  MIDDLE LATITUDES
 __________________________________________________      ___________________
|  SIGNAL  | Given in 8 hour local time intervals  |    |  SID ENHANCEMENT  |
| QUALITY  |Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue|    |S|M|T|W|T|F|S|S|M|T|
|__________|___|___|___|___|___|___|___|___|___|___|    |-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|
| VERY GOOD|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |  0%|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|
|ABOVE NORM|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   | 20%|*|*| | | | | | |*|*|
|    NORMAL|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***| 40%| | | | | | | | | | |
|BELOW NORM|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   | 60%| | | | | | | | | | |
| VERY POOR|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   | 80%| | | | | | | | | | |
|  BLACKOUT|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |100%| | | | | | | | | | |
|==========|===|===|===|===|===|===|===|===|===|===|    |-------------------|
|     100% |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |100%| | | | | | | | | | |
|      80% |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   | 80%| | | | | | | | | | |
|      60% |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   | 60%| | | | | | | | | | |
|      40% | * | * | * |   |   |   |   |   |   | * | 40%| | | | | | | | | | |
|      20% | * | * | * | * | * | * | * | * | * | * | 20%| | | | | | | | | | |
|       0% |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|  0%|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|
|----------+---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|    |-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|
|CHANCE OF |Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue|    |S|M|T|W|T|F|S|S|M|T|
|  VHF DX  | Given in 8 hour local time intervals  |    |AURORAL BACKSCATTER|
|__________|_______________________________________|    |___________________|

                    LOW LATITUDES
 __________________________________________________      ___________________
|  SIGNAL  | Given in 8 hour local time intervals  |    |  SID ENHANCEMENT  |
| QUALITY  |Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue|    |S|M|T|W|T|F|S|S|M|T|
|__________|___|___|___|___|___|___|___|___|___|___|    |-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|
| VERY GOOD|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |  0%|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|
|ABOVE NORM|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   | 20%|*|*| | | | | | |*|*|
|    NORMAL|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***| 40%| | | | | | | | | | |
|BELOW NORM|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   | 60%| | | | | | | | | | |
| VERY POOR|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   | 80%| | | | | | | | | | |
|  BLACKOUT|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |100%| | | | | | | | | | |
|==========|===|===|===|===|===|===|===|===|===|===|    |-------------------|
|     100% |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |100%| | | | | | | | | | |
|      80% |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   | 80%| | | | | | | | | | |
|      60% |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   | 60%| | | | | | | | | | |
|      40% | * | * | * |   |   |   |   |   |   | * | 40%| | | | | | | | | | |
|      20% | * | * | * | * | * | * | * | * | * | * | 20%| | | | | | | | | | |
|       0% |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|  0%|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|
|----------+---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|    |-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|
|CHANCE OF |Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue|    |S|M|T|W|T|F|S|S|M|T|
|  VHF DX  | Given in 8 hour local time intervals  |    |AURORAL BACKSCATTER|
|__________|_______________________________________|    |___________________|

NOTES:
      These VHF DX prediction charts are defined for the 50 MHz to 150 MHz
bands.  They are based primarily on phenomena which can affect VHF DX
propagation globally.  They should be used only as a guide to potential
DX conditions on VHF bands.  Latitudinal boundaries are the same as those for
the HF predictions charts.  For more information, request the document
"Understanding Solar Terrestrial Reports" from: "oler@hg.uleth.ca".


AURORAL ACTIVITY PREDICTIONS (03 MARCH - 12 MARCH)

                            High Latitude Locations
            ________________________________________________________
           | EXTREMELY HIGH |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
CONFIDENCE |      VERY HIGH |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
  LEVEL    |           HIGH |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
 -------   |       MODERATE |   |   |   |   | * | * |   |   |   |   |
   70%     |            LOW |   |   | * |***|***|***|***| * | * | * |
           |    NOT VISIBLE |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|
           |----------------|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
           |    AURORAL     |Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue|
           |   INTENSITY    |  Eve.Twilight/Midnight/Morn.Twilight  |
            --------------------------------------------------------

                          Middle Latitude Locations
            ________________________________________________________
           | EXTREMELY HIGH |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
CONFIDENCE |      VERY HIGH |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
  LEVEL    |           HIGH |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
 -------   |       MODERATE |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
   80%     |            LOW |   |   |   |   | * | * |   |   |   |   |
           |    NOT VISIBLE |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|
           |----------------|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
           |    AURORAL     |Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue|
           |   INTENSITY    |  Eve.Twilight/Midnight/Morn.Twilight  |
            --------------------------------------------------------

                             Low Latitude Locations
            ________________________________________________________
           | EXTREMELY HIGH |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
CONFIDENCE |      VERY HIGH |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
  LEVEL    |           HIGH |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
 -------   |       MODERATE |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
   95%     |            LOW |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
           |    NOT VISIBLE |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|
           |----------------|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
           |    AURORAL     |Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue|
           |   INTENSITY    |  Eve.Twilight/Midnight/Morn.Twilight  |
            --------------------------------------------------------

NOTE:
     For more information regarding these charts, send a request for the
document, "Understanding Solar Terrestrial Reports" to: oler@hg.uleth.ca.


**  End of Report  **