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>From: oler@HG.ULeth.CA (CARY OLER)
>Newsgroups: rec.radio.amateur.misc
>Subject: MAJOR SOLAR FLARE ALERT - 11 JUNE
>Message-ID: <910612003104.27200c43@HG.ULeth.CA>
>Date: 12 Jun 91 06:31:04 GMT
>Sender: daemon@ucsd.Edu
>Organization: UCSD Usenet Gateway
>Lines: 55


                        --  MAJOR SOLAR FLARE ALERT  --

                                 JUNE 11, 1991

                              Flare Event Summary
                          Potential Impact Assessment


                                    --------



MAJOR ENERGETIC EVENT SUMMARY

     Another flare from Region 6659 just barely managed to become a major
category flare today.  The event was a very long duration event.  It began at
20:03 UT, peaked at 21:32 UT and ended at 23:07 UT on 12 June.  It was rated
a class M5.3/1B event and was associated with a moderate intensity Type IV
sweep which has now been classified as a continuum.  Radio bursts were not
particularly large with this event.  The flare was located at N25W40.  X-ray
levels never fell back below the class M1 level until after 01:28 UT on 12
June.

     A moderate intensity SWF accompanied this flare.  The SWF lasted for
over two hours at moderate intensity levels and affected most HF frequencies.
Conditions began to improve by 22:30 UT.


POTENTIAL TERRESTRIAL IMPACT ASSESSMENT

     There is a small possibility that this flare could produce a low to
moderate terrestrial impact.  An increase in geomagnetic activity is possible
from this event, although significant storming will not be observed.  If any
impacts do materialize, they probably will not be observed until 14 June and
may be masked by the activity expected from yesterdays large X12+/3B event.

     Region 6659 continues to pose a significant threat.  Major flaring is
expected to continue from this complex region.  Another major proton flare
may become possible over the next 48 hours.

     The shock from yesterdays major flare is expected to arrive between
06:00 UT and 15:00 UT, or possibly shortly thereafter.  Major to severe
geomagnetic and auroral storming is still anticipated.

Warnings and alerts currently in progress include:

  - Satellite Proton Alert (~ 500pfu @ >10MeV, ~ 7pfu @ >100 Mev, decaying)
  - Polar Cap Absorption Alert (~ 4 dB and decaying)
  - Potential Major Flare Warning (proton)
  - Potential Major to Severe Geomagnetic Storm Warning (A-Index > 100)
  - Potential Low Latitude Auroral Activity Warning


**  End of Alert  **
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