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Article #103

Monopoly statistics

#103
From: Dave333
Date: Sat, 13 Jun 1998 00:00
63 lines
4637 bytes

Hey there.  I am a high school student.  As part of our senior year (I will be
a senior next year), we must do a big  project <like a mini-thesis>. Because 
my proposal is long and hard to explain, I'm going to cut and paste my proposal
that I handed in to my teacher:

State the problem you will be investigating and outline the procedure:
	My proposed project is based on the game Monopoly.  The proposal is written
assuming the reader understands the basic principles of the game Monopoly.  If
this is not the case, I can explain the how the game is played.
          I will create a computer program that will play out the finishing
stages (after all or nearly all properties have been purchased) of  Monopoly
games between two players, when each player owns one complete monopoly (e.g.
all three orange properties, or all three yellow properties, etc.).  The
computer simulation will be complete with everything in the actual board game
including going to jail, community chest and chance cards, mortgaging etc.  The
program assumes that each player builds until he/she runs out of money.  The
program takes as input a  game scenario (e.g. player 1 owns all three orange
properties, $500, and is on space 2; player 2 owns all three yellow properties,
$500, and is on space 33; it is player 2�s turn), and computes both player�s
percent chance of winning the game. (Each scenario would be played a lot of
times, about 5000, in order to determine chance of winning for each player.)   
  
             The variable I will test will be monopoly owned.  I will pit a
player owning each monopoly against a player owning every other monopoly, like
a round Robin tournament.  Furthermore, I will differ the other variables
besides color group owned to simulate the many different situations that may
arise in real monopoly games.  Take for example when the orange monopoly is
pitted against the yellow monopoly.  I will increment each player�s money from
$0 to $900 in $100 increments, start each player on every space of the board,
and let each player go first once in each scenario, so that every combination
of starting space for player 1, starting space for player 2, money owned by
player 1, money owned by player 2, and who goes first is tried.   (9 increments
of $ for player 1)*( 9 increments of $ for player 2)*(40 spaces for player 1 to
start on)* (40 spaces for player 2 to start on)*(2 players to go first)=259,200
different games that will be played to determine the percentage chance the
orange monopoly has of winning when playing the yellow monopoly (and vice
versa).  Remember that a game is actually played out 5,000 to determine the
chance each player has of winning that particular scenario. 
259,200*5000=129,600,000.   If  running the program 129,600,000 times takes too
long, I will only play each game 1,000 times, or start players only on the
corners of the gameboard or something else to decrease the number of times the
program has to run.
          The statistics gathered will be the average percentage chance of
winning with each monopoly. (e.g. if a player who owns the green monopoly wins
60% of the time against a player owning the light purple monopoly, 60% against
a player owning the light blues, 50% against a player owning the dark purples,
40% against a player owning the oranges, 55% against a player owning the reds,
60% against a player owning the yellows, and 40% against a player owning the
dark blues, then the average percentage chance of winning with the green
monopoly would be:    (60%+60%+50%+40%+55%+60%+40% )/ 7          )      
       These statistics would be useful in rating each monopoly in terms of how
likely a player is to win with it, which in turn, would help a player decide
what properties to buy, and especially what trades to make.  

 as part of my program, I must make an algorithim that decides when a player
should build and how much etc.  Do you have any suggestions in creating this
building algorithim or anything else?

(much of my project is done, and I can send it to you if you'd like)
(also instead of running the program a million some times, I will randomly
create starting positions and money for both players)
Technical Details
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From: dave333@aol.com (Dave333)
Subject: Monopoly statistics
Date: 1998/06/13
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