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From: E.D.G. Scientific Consultant, edgrsprj@ix.netcom.com
Posted To:  Earthquake And Disaster Related Newsgroups
Date Posted:  Friday, December 19, 1997

       This notice will discuss what I believe is a problem which
presently exists with regard to our earthquake warning data
circulation procedures.  That problem is the fact that for all
practical purposes, those procedures do not appear to exist!

       Other people who are interested in this subject matter can
contact me by e-mail if they would like to compare notes.  Or
they can post notices to the Newsgroups.

       This is the first of three somewhat related notices which
I am planning to post.  The second one would be addressed to
groups which are monitoring earthquake precursors.  The third
would discuss an earthquake location determination procedure and
be addressed to government officials around the world.

       All of the information in this notice represents
expressions of personal opinion.

A WARNING BEFORE THE KOBE EARTHQUAKE

       On December 30, 1994 I had a commercial FAX service send a
FAX earthquake warning message to the U.S. National Earthquake
Center in Golden, Colorado advising federal officials to begin
watching for a highly destructive earthquake.  Two and a half
weeks later, on January 17, 1995 a catastrophic earthquake
decimated the city of Kobe, Japan, reportedly killing more than
5000 people.

       I was not on the Internet at the time.  And contacting the
NEC (now NEIC, I believe) was the best idea that I could come up
with.  I expect that earthquake forecasters in Japan never heard
about my earthquake warning.

MORE FATALITIES

       On November 20, 1997 I posted an earthquake advisory to my
Web site Earthquake Alert Page, to a number of Newsgroups, and
circulated advisories by e-mail.  They were for a potentially
destructive earthquake which would have the following time window
and magnitude ranges:

November 20, 1997 to November 24, 1997
Possible Magnitudes For Different Locations:
5.0 to 5.8  for URBAN areas
5.8 to 6.3  for RURAL areas
6.3 +       for REMOTE areas

       On November 21, 1997 a 6.0 magnitude earthquake occurred
along the India - Bangladesh boarder and reportedly killed
between one and two dozen people.  In the e-mail advisories which
I circulated I stated that I thought that the approaching
earthquake might produce a relatively small number of casualties.

       If my understanding of how the Newsgroup system works is
correct, my advisories which were posted to sci.geo.earthquakes
and perhaps a few other Newsgroups, were circulated around the
world and available to people everywhere within a few hours.  Yet
I suspect that few people if any in either India or Bangladesh
who might have made use of that warning data ever became aware of
its existence.

       For the past few years I have been talking with people
working for an important international earthquake forecasting
group (which I prefer not to identify).  And my discussions with
them indicate to me that that they are also running into the same
problem.  There ARE communications channels in existence.  But
none of them is designed for the circulation of earthquake
warning information.  If that type of information were circulated
through existing channels the people receiving it would have no
idea regarding what they should do with the warning data.

       When I myself detect an earthquake warning signal the
earthquake may then occur in less than 12 hours.  And so the
speed with which my warning data is circulated is crucial.

       There are likely many people besides myself who believe
that we SHOULD have effective earthquake warning circulation
procedures established.  And I am asking them what they think
might be done in order to get that accomplished.

MY OWN EFFORTS

       My Web site Earthquake Alert Page can be found at the
following address:

http://www.webcom.com/quakenet/members/solutions/quakealert.html
(or) http://www.quakenet.org/members/solutions/quakealert.html

       That alert page is not intended to actually circulate
earthquake warnings.  Its purpose is to serve as a reference
source of information for people regarding my earthquake
advisories once they have become aware that an "active" alert is
in progress.  It would be too much trouble for people to check
that site every day.  And so it is important that people learn
about my active alerts in some other manner.

       At the moment I am telling them about the alerts through
Newsgroup notices.  But I am also working on two other warning
information circulation procedures which should be more
efficient.

1.  I am assembling e-mail lists of government agencies, disaster
response groups, and news services around the world.  When I post
an earthquake alert I plan to send them a short e-mail note
telling them about the alert and directing them to my Web site
Earthquake Alert Page for more data and updates.

2.  A longer range plan is to create a single earthquake
forecasting information Web page at the "QuakeNet.org" Web site.

http://www.webcom.com/quakenet/index.html
(or) http://www.quakenet.org/index.html
or
http://www.webcom.com/quakenet/noframes.html
(or) http://www.quakenet.org/noframes.html

       That proposed page would list earthquake forecasts which
are being made by individuals, scientific groups, and governments
around the world.  If people working for government agencies,
disaster response groups, and news services could visit a single
Web site and learn in a timely manner WHEN earthquake forecasters
around the world thought that a destructive earthquake might be
about to occur then they might become more interested in that
type of information.

       It is unlikely that many people working for earthquake
forecasting groups would choose to visit such a site every day in
order to submit their forecasts.  And so what might happen is
that volunteers would visit the different earthquake forecasting
sites on the Web and contact government agencies for information,
and then post that information to that page.

       A demonstration version of an earthquake precursor based
earthquake forecasting program which shows how such a precursor
display Web site page might look can be found at:

http://www.webcom.com/quakenet/members/solutions/124sfp.html
(or) http://www.quakenet.org/members/solutions/124sfp.html

       One important capability which is available at the
QuakeNet Web site is the ability to create and run CGI (Cognitive
Graphical Interface) programs.  They are programs which can
automatically accept data from a Web site data entry screen or
extract it from submitted e-mail notes, process the data, and
then display the information in files at the Web site or send it
to people by e-mail.

       A relatively simple version of such a CGI program which is
designed to receive and display data submitted to it by
earthquake sensitives around the world can be found at:

http://www.webcom.com/quakenet/seismic/101report.html
(or) http://quakenet.org/seismic/101report.html

       That program was installed at the QuakeNet site in July of
1997.  And it has been running largely unattended ever since.

       Plans are for a far more sophisticated version of that
program to be created and installed at the site.  It has not yet
been created because of the amount of time required.  The
language used with those CGI programs is versatile, but not in my
opinion very efficient.  And creating and debugging programs
written in that language is a time consuming process.

SUMMARY

       If there are any people who are interested in discussing
the subject of communications procedures for circulating
earthquake warning data then I would be interested in hearing
from them.

E.D.G.  edgrsprj@ix.netcom.com