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AN EARTHQUAKE SENSITIVITY BASED EARTHQUAKE FORECASTING PROGRAM

TABLE OF CONTENTS: Part 3  (this present part)

5.  Advantages Of This Approach To Forecasting Earthquakes
6.  Limitations Of This Approach To Forecasting Earthquakes
7.  An Earthquake Sensitivity Type Warning Picked Up Just Before
The Catastrophic January 17, 1995 Earthquake In Kobe, Japan
8.  Other Earthquake Forecasting Methods

From:  E.D.G., Scientific Consultant, edgrsprj@ix.netcom.com
Posted To:  Earthquake Related Newsgroups
Date Posted:  Saturday, August 2, 1997
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       A number of Web site addresses for this forecasting
program can be found at the end of Part 2.  However the data file
which most people will probably be interested in is a report
which contains 11 days worth of earthquake sensitivity data.  It
can be found at:

http://www.webcom.com/quakenet/seismic/101report.html

       All of the information in these notices represents
expressions of personal opinion.


INTRODUCTION:  Part 1

TABLE OF CONTENTS: Part 2

1.  The Theory Basis For This Earthquake Forecasting Program
2.  Recommendations For Earthquake Sensitives
3.  Recommendations For Government Officials, Disaster Response
Groups, Scientific Groups, News Service Personnel, And Other
Interested Parties
4.  Web Site Addresses For The Program


5.  ADVANTAGES OF THIS APPROACH TO FORECASTING EARTHQUAKES

A.  It Might Enable Us To Detect (some of the) Powerful
Earthquakes Which Are Going To Occur At -ANY- Location On Earth

       My discussions with quite a few talented earthquake
sensitives during the past year and a half indicate to me that at
least some of them can detect the approach of earthquakes which
are going to occur anywhere on earth.

       The distance between the sensitives and the fault zone
DOES appear to have some effect on most sensitives' abilities.
But for fairly powerful earthquakes an earthquake sensitive
living in the U.S. may be able to easily detect an earthquake's
approach even if it is going to occur as far away as Japan.

B.  In Theory The Program Should Work Best For Earthquakes Which
Are Going To Occur Near Highly Populated Areas

       Since the program relies for its data on the general
public and since proximity of the sensitives to the fault zone
can be important there should be more reports of seismic activity
submitted for earthquakes which are going to occur near heavily
populated areas such as major cities.  And I personally believe
that this is exactly what we would want with an earthquake
forecasting program.

C.  In General, The More Powerful The Earthquake, The Stronger
The Warning Signal

       On the average, the strength or intensity of the
earthquake warning experiences which the earthquake sensitives
have appears to related to the magnitude of the earthquake, among
other things.  However, this is not always the case.  At times
sensitives may have stronger warning experiences before a 5.5
magnitude earthquake than before a 6.5 magnitude one.

D.  This Is An Automated Program

       It has been my personal experience and I believe that of
an earlier earthquake sensitivity researcher, biophysicist
Christopher Dodge who worked on "Project Migraine" a number of
years ago that warning data generated by earthquake sensitives
can be overwhelming.  Too much information can arrive on a daily
basis for anyone to evaluate.  With this present effort a
computer program will be automatically collecting, processing,
storing, and displaying the data submitted by the earthquake
sensitives.  All that people will need to do is submit data in
the first place and then evaluate it when it is displayed for
them.

E.  The Program Is Being Developed By An Independent Professional
Analyst

       When I attempt to solve some problem I try to determine
what will be the most efficient and effective approach to use,
conventional or not.  And in this case it appears to me that
earthquake sensitives could presently be providing us with some
of our best earthquake prediction information.

       This present program relies on the ability of earthquake
sensitives to determine WHEN an earthquake is likely to occur.
But I have already told a number of sensitives whom I compare
notes with on a regular basis that we should begin investigating
a procedure called "map dowsing" which I believe might enable us
to collect high quality earthquake location information.  And I
have a number of additional procedures which I am hoping to
develop which I believe will provide us with other types of
invaluable data regarding approaching earthquakes.

       I am also planning to publish a scientific paper which
will describe a program which involves raising groups of animals
near earthquake fault zones and having them sense when an
earthquake is approaching.  This is already being done in some
parts of the world.  However, the program that I have in mind may
be decades more advanced and considerably more effective than
existing programs.

6.  LIMITATIONS OF THIS APPROACH TO FORECASTING EARTHQUAKES

A.  Location Data Will Not Be Available At First

       With the present version of this program it is not
possible for earthquake sensitives to submit possible location
data for an approaching earthquake.  If it does actually work,
the program will at best tell us only WHEN and not WHERE an
earthquake is likely to occur.  Future versions of the program
may allow the sensitives to submit expected location data.

B.  There Will Be Some False Alarms

       At times signals that the earthquake sensitives pick up
are associated with events which ARE NOT going to result in an
earthquake.  At the present time I do not know how often that
happens.  But I would not be surprised to see as many as one out
of three earthquake sensitivity based earthquake warnings turn
out to be false alarms.

       Additionally, with this particular program version no
attempt is being made to insure that the people who are
submitting data to it are truly earthquake sensitive.  Future
versions of the program may include a data entry screen security
code feature which will instruct the program to send submitted
data to either "Guest" information provider data base files or to
"Official" information provider files which would be for people
who are known to be earthquake sensitive.

C.  Some Powerful Earthquakes WILL NOT Be Detected

       For a variety of reasons the signals which the earthquake
sensitives detect are not present before some earthquakes.  My
present guess is that this may be the case for less than 20% of
the more powerful earthquakes.

D.  Some Earthquake Sensitives Become Increasingly Ill As An
Earthquake Approaches

       As an earthquake gets closer, the headaches etc. which
certain earthquake sensitives experience often become more
severe.  At times some of the more sensitive people can become
totally incapacitated.  They are unable to even function well
enough to get on the Internet and transmit their warning data to
anyone.

E.  The Program Will Probably Be Dependent For Its Success On A
Relatively Small Number Of People

       In the long run, the main limitation associated with the
program may turn out to be the fact that its development is
dependent on how much time people can find to work on it.  I
myself am presently doing all of the computer programming and
general program development.  And any time that I devote to the
effort is lost to my consulting business.  A talented,
professional Web site designer is developing the Web site where
the program is running.  And whatever time she spends on the
project is also lost to her business.

       In the short run, expenses for the Web site where the
program is running are covered for the next year.  And in its
present form the program itself could probably run unattended for
at least that long.

       My primary concern at this point is locating and
convincing enough earthquake sensitives to submit data to the
program for it to work.  My present guess is that for it to be
successful at least 20 people will have to submit data to it on a
regular basis.  There are quite a few earthquake sensitives
living in different countries around the world.  Unfortunately,
probably just a relatively small number of them have direct
access to the World Wide Web.  For that reason I feel that it is
important that people working for government agencies, scientific
groups, and news services in other countries who DO have access
to the Web tell earthquake sensitives living in their countries
about the existence of the program.

7.  AN EARTHQUAKE SENSITIVITY TYPE WARNING PICKED UP JUST BEFORE
THE CATASTROPHIC JANUARY 17, 1995 EARTHQUAKE IN KOBE, JAPAN

       During the past few years more than 35,000 people have
died as the result of earthquakes which I believe I have been
able to predict by using my own earthquake sensitive abilities.
On December 30, 1994 I detected an INTENSE signal which I thought
might be related to an approaching earthquake.  And I called
federal officials at the U.S. National Earthquake Center in
Golden, Colorado and briefly discussed that with them.  Later
that day I had a commercial FAX service send them a FAX which
warned them to begin watching for a highly destructive
earthquake.  Two and a half weeks later, on January 17, 1995 a
catastrophic earthquake occurred in Kobe, Japan, reportedly
claiming more than 5000 lives.

       Kobe is thousands of miles from where I live.  And I
expect that if I could pick up such an intense warning signal at
that great a distance there must have been a considerable amount
of earthquake precursor activity observable at the time in the
Kobe area.  It is unfortunate that no program that I am aware of
for monitoring and reacting to those types of warning signals
existed at that time.  Perhaps some of the people who lost their
lives as a result of the Kobe earthquake might still be alive.

       Human earthquake sensitivity is in my opinion quite real.
I have been investigating these unusual types of phenomena for a
quarter of a century and believe that I may know more about how
they work than any other person.  A book which I have written
which discusses my theories regarding their nature and which I
hope to publish at some time will I believe eliminate much of the
confusion which surrounds them.

8.  OTHER EARTHQUAKE FORECASTING METHODS

       There are a number of other, more conventional approaches
to forecasting earthquakes which are being developed or which are
already in use.  Some of them are based on monitoring ground
movements, electromagnetic energy field (radio wave)
fluctuations, and the statistical evaluation of seismic data.

       In addition to determining when, where, and how powerful
an earthquake is going to be you also need to get people to pay
attention to your earthquake forecasts.  If you cannot do that
then I feel that you cannot claim that your method works.
Earlier this year we saw thousands of people lose their lives in
Iran as the result of earthquakes and more recently close to a
hundred people die in Venezuela.  The fact that all of those
lives were lost demonstrates to me, at least, that none of our
presently available forecasting method is completely successful.

       An earthquake occurring near a large city can easily
produce 20,000 casualties.  One occurring on the ocean floor can
produce a tidal wave capable of sweeping ashore and claiming a
million lives.  Our next deadly earthquake is not going to wait
for us to agree on what might be the BEST approach to use for
generating earthquake predictions.  And so it is important that
all affordable forecasting methods which might have a chance of
working be developed as quickly as possible.  Perhaps with luck
one of them will help us spot the approach of our next deadly
earthquake.